Once touted as a summer blockbuster, Joe Wright’s Pan hits theaters next Friday and Warner Bros. may well have a costly flop on their hands. With a reported budget of $150 million, it’s very difficult to imagine this Peter Pan retelling coming anywhere close to grossing its budget stateside.
Hugh Jackman, Garrett Hedlund, Rooney Mara, Amanda Seyfried and Levi Miller (as Peter) star with Wright behind the camera (he’s known most for dramas like Pride&Prejudice and Atonement). The pic was originally scheduled for release in June until the studio got cold feet about the increased competition in that season. The fall push back may not help much. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it currently sits at 43% on Rotten Tomatoes.
There should be some family audience turnout but I’m skeptical this even manages $20 million for its debut, which would be considered highly disappointing considering the budget and well known source material.
Two new adult themed titles compete against the second weekend of the record setting animated pic Hotel Transylvania 2. They are the Ridley Scott sci fi pic The Martian with Matt Damon and border crime thriller Sicario, which has earned great reviews and expands nationwide after a stellar limited release. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
The Martian shouldn’t have much trouble opening #1, though my prediction is a bit below what some other prognosticators have it pegged at. I don’t believe it’ll reach the September record that the Transylvania sequel just set, but you never know (more on that below).
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Transylvania 2 should drop to second with all other holdovers dipping in the low to mid 40s range. That could mean a close competition for the five spot between Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Everest while the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern should have fourth to itself.
That means I’m predicting Sicario will open third in its expanded roll out.
And with that, a top six predictions for this weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $40.3 million
2. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $26.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Sicario
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Everest
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (September 25-27)
As mentioned, the Adam Sandler animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 beat its own predecessor’s record for the biggest September debut in box office history. I incorrectly had it grossing less out of the gate than the original three years ago, but it took in a terrific $47.5 million, blasting past my $34.1M estimate.
The Intern had a stellar debut with $17.7 million, a bit under my $19 million prediction and represents a nice mid size hit for Ms. Hathaway and Mr. De Niro.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials dipped to third in its second weekend with $14.2 million, a little under my $16.1M prediction and the YA sequel stands at $51 million.
The mountain climbing action thriller Everest expanded nationally and posted results that were less than expected. It earned $13.2 million, below my $17.6M estimate.
Johnny Depp’s Black Mass rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $11 million, under my $13.5M forecast. Its two week total is at $42 million.
Finally, Eli Roth’s long delayed horror flick The Green Inferno opened in ninth place with just $3.5 million – though it did exceed my $2.5M prediction.
After a successful limited run in theaters and following very positive buzz stemming from the film festival circuit, the border crime thriller Sicario expands nationwide this Friday. From Prisoners director Denis Villeneuve, the acclaimed pic stars Emily Blunt, Benicio del Toro, and Josh Brolin. As mentioned, reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s even some Oscar buzz going for it and there’s already been a spin-off film greenlit based on del Toro’s character.
While all these signs are encouraging, there will be serious competition from Ridley Scott’s The Martian for adult moviegoers and it’s an open question as to how well Sicario performs when it ventures out of larger metro markets.
I believe a debut is most likely in the low to mid teens and the pic could perform well with minor declines in subsequent weekends.
Director Ridley Scott knows a thing or two about making science fiction movies and this Friday, The Martian is his latest. The lost in space pic is riding a wave of solid buzz (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and its all star cast includes Matt Damon, Jessica Chastain, Kristen Wiig, Jeff Daniels, Michael Pena, Kate Mara, Sean Bean, and Chiwetel Ejiofor.
With a reported $108 million budget, 20th Century Fox is hoping for robust results. It should have no issue opening atop the charts, but how high it goes is an open question. For comparison sake, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity debuted to $55 million on the same weekend two years ago. Last year’s similarly themed Interstellar took in $47 million out of the gate. Scott’s last sci fi effort Prometheus made $51 million in the summer of 2012 for its start. Damon’s previous genre pic Elysium premiered to $29 million in August 2013.
That’s a rather wide range of grosses for The Martian to open in. I’m skeptical that it tops $50 million, though its positive reviews don’t hurt. I also don’t believe it’ll gross as low as Elysium did as that film’s buzz was far less solid. Add it all up and I believe the most probable scenario is a premier in the high 30s to low 40s.
The Martian opening weekend prediction: $40.3 million
It could be a highly unpredictable weekend at the box office as three new releases come out and another expands wide. We have Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2, the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern, and long delayed Eli Roth horror pic The Green Inferno. Additionally, Everest expands wide after its impressive roll out on a few hundred IMAX screens this past week. You can find my detailed prediction posts on the three newbies here:
As I see it, Transylvania should really have no trouble winning the weekend, though I have it pegged to gross less than its predecessor did three years ago. I also look for The Intern to have a healthy debut just under the $20M range.
The big question mark is Everest. I think the range of grosses for its wide release premiere could be as low as $12 million to as high as the mid-20s range. Ultimately I think it reaches a gross somewhere in the high teens for a third place showing.
The Green Inferno looks like a flop and my $2.5 million estimate for it leaves it well outside the top five.
As for holdovers, current champ Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials should lose close to half its opening audience while Johnny Depp’s Black Mass may not fall quite that far.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $34.1 million
2. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $19 million
3. Everest
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
4. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Black Mass
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (September 18-20)
YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials got off to a commendable start while not reaching the level its predecessor managed a year. Trials earned $30.3 million, a bit below my $33.8M estimate.
Johnny Depp’s acclaimed Whitney Bulger biopic Black Mass (which is earning Oscar buzz for its star) made $22.6 million out of the gate, below my $27.9M prediction. This is still a nice start and I look for it to continue doing well in subsequent weekends.
M. Night Shyamalan’s The Visit was third in weekend two with $11.5 million, higher than my $9.7M prognostication. The low budget horror title has taken in $42 million so far.
Last weekend’s champ The Perfect Guy dropped to the four spot with $9.6 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate and its two week total stands at $41 million.
The aforementioned Everest was fifth on an IMAX only limited release with $7.2 million, a tad under my $8.6M forecast. Still, its future is looking pretty bright.
Finally, the faith based thriller Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara stalled even worse than I predicted with just $1.3 million for 11th place. I estimated $2.3 million.
And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…
Known mostly for his one two punch of Hostel pics a few years ago, director Eli Roth is back with The Green Inferno, out Friday. The horror title plants a group of student activists in the Amazon where they’re kidnapped and terror ensues. There are no big names among the cast and it comes with a meager $6 million budget.
The small budget should be a silver lining as I don’t expect big results for this. Inferno was originally scheduled to be released a year ago but financial difficulties with its studio held it back. The marketing campaign hasn’t been too strong and lots of horror fans may have gotten their current fill with The Visit.
Debuting on a relatively small 1500 approximate screens, I believe The Green Inferno will flame out and be ready for VOD quite soon.
The Green Inferno opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million
For my Hotel Transylvania 2 prediction, click here:
This Friday, Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro headline the workplace comedy The Intern and in a sea of male driven titles like Black Mass and Everest, this will attempt to break through to a more female audience. It may succeed.
The pic comes from director Nancy Meyers, whose resume includes hits like What Women Want, Something’s Gotta Give and It’s Complicated. It marks Hathaway’s return to a genre where she’s seen successes like The Devil Wears Prada. The Intern has been heavily marketed and is probably mostly critic proof (reviews have yet to be released at press time).
While the film will almost certainly have to settle for the runner up spot behind animated kiddie sequel Hotel Transylvania 2, I believe The Intern could potentially debut above $20 million. However, my prediction puts it a bit under that.
The Intern opening weekend prediction: $19 million
For my Hotel Transylvania 2 prediction, click here:
Three years ago on the same late September weekend, the animated Hotel Transylvania marked Adam Sandler’s second biggest domestic debut ever after The Longest Yard. Making $42.5 million out of the gate, the original monstrous comedy would top out at $148 million stateside. Therefore it’s certainly no surprise that a sequel is coming to multiplexes next Friday.
Sandler is back in voice over mode along with returnees Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, Steve Buscemi, David Spade, Molly Shannon and Fran Drescher along with newbies Mel Brooks, Nick Offerman and Megan Mullaly.
Hotel Transylvania 2 will have the advantage of really being the only game in town catering to youngsters. Opening #1 shouldn’t be a problem, but whether it outdoes its predecessor is another story. While the first was well received for sure, I don’t necessarily believe anticipation is rabid for a follow up. I believe a premiere in the mid 30s is more likely than topping $40 million.
Hotel Transylvania 2 opening weekend prediction: $34.1 million
And now – for this week’s trickiest box office prediction. Baltasar Kornakur’s disaster drama Everest, led by an impressive cast and mountain set action sequences, debuts in IMAX theaters this Friday. Its reported roll out is on approximately 500 of the large format screens. When the pic premiered at the Venice Film Festival, solid reviews followed and it stands at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been pretty busy and it doesn’t hurt that familiar faces like Jake Gyllenhaal, Jason Clarke, Josh Brolin, John Hawkes, Sam Worthington, Robin Wright, and Keira Knightley are among the cast.
What makes this prediction difficult is how it’s being released. Everest doesn’t open “wide” until Friday, September 25th. However, 500 IMAX screens is nothing to sneeze at and higher ticket prices involved with that format could up the grosses. The only other film to debut on a limited IMAX run before a wide release was nearly four years ago when Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol did the same. It made $12.7 million on 425 screens.
Let’s be clear: Everest is highly unlikely to achieve the grosses of Ghost Protocol, which is part of a hugely successful and known franchise. There’s also the competition factor: adult viewers may be checking out Black Mass with younger viewers taking in Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials. Still, I expect that Everest could reach a gross in the high single digits this weekend before its wider release that follows.
Everest opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
For my Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials prediction, click here:
Two promising box office prospects hit the multiplexes Friday as YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Johnny Depp gangster flick Black Mass roll out. On a more limited number of screens, the hostage drama Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara will also debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:
As I see it, Maze Runner should debut on top but I think the race could be closer than anticipated. In fact, my prediction on Scorch Trials is a bit lower than some of my fellow prognosticators. I look for Mass to have a healthy start with its positive buzz that includes Oscar nomination talk for Depp. As for Captive, my $2.3 million prediction on it should leave outside the top five.
As for holdovers, both The Perfect Guy and The Visit premiered to impressive results (more on that below). Look for both to experience hefty declines in weekend two, but they’ve both already proven to be huge hits for their studios.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
**Blogger’s note: I have altered my predictions as of Tuesday, September 15th due to my predicted gross of Everest, which debuts on approximately 500 screens IMAX screens only Friday. I feel that’ll be enough to get it in the top five. My full prediction post on Everest will be posted on blog Tuesday evening.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trails
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Black Mass
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
3. The Perfect Guy
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 60%)
4. The Visit
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)
5. Everest
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
Box Office Results (September 11-13)
Thriller The Perfect Guy got off to a great start with $25.8 million over the weekend, outpacing my $21.9M prediction. With a tiny $12 million budget, it managed to double its budget in three days.
M. Night Shyamalan found himself in the position of having a hit once again as The Visit followed closely behind in second with $25.4 million, topping my $17M estimate. With an even tinier budget of $5M budget, it quintupled its meager budget and gave its director his first huge hit since The Village over a decade ago.
Faith based drama War Room dropped to third with $7.7 million, a bit shy of my $8.9M prediction. Its three week total stands at a strong $39M.
A Walk in the Woods dropped to fourth with $4.7 million, falling further my $7.7M forecast and it’s made $20M so far.
I incorrectly didn’t list Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in my estimates but it took fifth place with $4.1 million to bring its cume to $188M.
That’s because I mistakenly believed another faith based pic, 90 Minutes in Heaven, would perform much stronger than it did. While I had it opening third with $10.5 million, it flopped with just $2 million for a weak ninth place showing. Oops.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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