Rom com The Perfect Match hopes to line up moviegoers when it debuts next weekend. Music video director and Honey maker Bille Woodruff is behind the camera with Terrence J, Cassie Ventura, Donald Faison, Paula Patton, Lauren London, Joe Pantoliano, and Brandy Norwood among the cast members.
Lionsgate is hopeful the flick will reach its intended African American audience and these movies often do significantly exceed expectations. Having said that, Match does seem to have a limited footprint in its marketing campaign and I’m not sure this half of the $9 million that Baggage Claim, a similarly themed pic, did three years ago. It also doesn’t that it’s opening on only a reported 850 screens that must be accounted for as well.
The Perfect Match opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:
Two weeks before the Easter holiday, faith based drama The Young Messiah rises in theaters next weekend hoping to take advantage of the season. Produced by Home Alone and Harry Potter helmer Chris Columbus, Messiah features Adam Greaves-Neal as a young Jesus with Sean Bean costarring.
Shot for a reported small budget of $16.8 million, this shouldn’t have much trouble recouping costs and then some (especially if it experiences meager declines in weekends two and three, which seems feasible). These Christian themed pics are typically tough to project and often do open larger than expected. Just in mid February, Risen (a similarly themed tale appealing to the same audience) took in $11.8 million. That seems a reasonable range for Messiah.
I’ll say it reaches just beyond that and, in doing so, I have it debuting even higher than Sacha Baron Cohen’s The Brothers Grimsby opening against it.
The Young Messiah opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million
For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:
Sacha Baron Cohen is back in his first starring role in nearly four years with action comedy The Brothers Grimsby and the effort looks to be a real test of his drawing power. From Now You See Me director Louis Leterrier and costarring Mark Strong, Penelope Cruz, Rebel Wilson, Ian McShane, Isla Fisher, and Gabourey Sidibe – Grimsby may represent a low mark for Cohen’s headlining output.
He burst onto the film scene in 2006 with Borat to the tune of a $26 million opening and improved those numbers with Bruno‘s $30 million premiere three years. His last vehicle, 2012’s The Dictator, managed $17 million out of the gate. That number would probably be on the higher end of expectations for this, which is managing an OK 50% on Rotten Tomaotes and looks unlikely to be a breakout hit like he’s experienced in years past.
While Grimsby should reach double digits, I believe it may not get much beyond that for a disappointing haul.
The Brothers Grimsby opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:
Is it a sequel? Is it not a sequel? Audiences will find out next Friday when the mysterious 10 Cloverfield Lane debuts. Producer J.J. Abrams (you may have heard of him) describes the picture as a “blood relative” to 2008’s Cloverfield, the sci fi found footage monster flick which scored with audiences to the tune of a $40 million opening. Its final domestic gross was $80M.
This kind of, sort of sequel is as steeped in mystery as its predecessor was eight years ago. Mary Elizabeth Winstead and John Goodman star and the effective survivalist bunker trailer and TV spots (including a Super Bowl ad) have genre lovers quite curious.
How that interest generates to its debut is a bit up in the air. As shown above, the original had a splashy opening but fell quickly (it’s not often a film’s opening weekend is responsible for half its overall take). 10 Cloverfield Lane is not expected to match what the 2008 iteration made, but it could still make a tidy sum.
My suspicion is that this will at least make half of the $40 million Cloverfield did out of the gate and could even threaten to top $30 million. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite get there and an opening in the mid to higher 20s seems more probable.
10 Cloverfield Lane opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million
For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:
A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $54.4 million
2. London Has Fallen
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million
3. Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Gods of Egypt
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (February 26-28)
As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.
Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.
Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.
Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.
Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).
And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…
**Blogger’s note (Friday, February 26) – due to announced screen count of only about 500, I’m revising my original prediction of $4.1 million to just $2.1 million
British supernatural horror flick The Other Side of the Door opens next weekend and will try to bring in genre fans. Other may find that door closed, as this low budget entry from director Johannes Roberts (who’s helmed a number of scare pics you’ve likely never heard of) seems to be gaining little traction stateside. Sarah Wayne Callies from TV’s “The Walking Dead” and Jeremy Sisto star.
Early reviews have been weak and this probably will be lucky to gross half of what January’s The Boy accomplished with $10.7 million. I’ll say it doesn’t and this should be streaming on VOD quite soon.
The Other Side of the Door opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
Tina Fey headlines the war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, out next weekend and the 30 Rock star hopes to capitalize on the goodwill audiences gave with her Christmas time hit Sisters. Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, the directors of Crazy, Stupid, Love and Focus, are behind the camera with Margot Robbie, Martin Freeman, Billy Bob Thornton, and Alfred Molina amongst the supporting players.
The Afghanistan set pic could benefit with solid reviews (they’re not out yet). Even if Foxtrot receives them, it likely faces an uphill battle to open big out of the gate. Sisters started rather slow at $13.9 million, but eventually grossed nearly $90M domestically (it did open against something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens, to be fair). However, that film had Fey’s partner in hilarity Amy Poehler alongside her.
I believe this should manage to open higher than Fey’s Admission, which flunked out with a $6.1M opening three years ago. Whether it reaches double digits is a legit question and I’ll predict it falls a bit under that.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
In 2013, there was a showdown of terrorism at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave pics between Olympus Has Fallen and Roland Emmerich’s White House Down. It is the latter that was expected to win the contest, but it didn’t turn out that way. Olympus debuted to $30.3 million on its way to a $98M domestic haul in the spring while its competitor opened at $24.8 million with a disappointing $73M overall gross.
While we won’t see Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx in White House Down Again, we do have London Has Fallen out next weekend. The sequel returns Gerard Butler’s Secret Service agent, Aaron Eckhart’s POTUS, Melissa Leo’s Secretary of Defense and the soothing sounds of Morgan Freeman as the Speaker of the House alongside new cast members Angela Bassett and Jackie Earle Haley.
Olympus was well liked by critics and audiences, though I’m not totally confident that a follow-up is being clamored for. I have doubts that it will match the $30M achieved by its predecessor and it probably won’t reach its reported $105 million budget domestically. I’ll say a premiere in the lower to mid 20s is the safest bet.
London Has Fallen opening weekend prediction: $24.6 million
Disney looks to end the box office domination of Deadpool next weekend with Zootopia, the studio’s 55th animated feature. It’s quite likely to succeed. The animal tale features the voices of Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, J.K. Simmons, and Shakira.
The pic has amassed positive reviews (currently 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s already done brisk business in overseas markets. Zootopia arrives just four months after a rare animated disappointment for The Mouse Factory – November’s The Good Dinosaur, which took in a much less than expected $121 million domestically.
That said, with a dearth of family fare out there, I expect this to improve on Dinosaur‘s numbers. An opening in the mid 50s seems most plausible.
Zootopia opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million
Like last weekend, a trio of newcomers will attempt to unseat the reign of Deadpool at the box office. They are big budget action fantasy Gods of Egypt, Olympic sports tale Eddie the Eagle, and heist thriller Triple 9. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
And like last weekend, I don’t see any of them topping the raunchy Ryan Reynolds superhero megahit. Deadpool should lose about half its audience in weekend #3, allowing it to easily come in first. As for newbies, Gods of Egypt and Eddie the Eagle should manage 2nd and 3rd with Triple 9 competing for a top five showing. Holdovers Kung Fu Panda 3 and Risen may lose between 35-40% of its crowds.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for this weekend:
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $28 million (representing a drop of 50%)
2. Gods of Egypt
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Eddie the Eagle
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
5. Risen
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. Triple 9
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (February 19-21)
As expected, Deadpool continued to rule the charts in its sophomore frame with $56.4 million – in range with my $58.6M estimate. Its two week total stands at an astonishing $236M and, as mentioned above, it should continue its dominance next weekend.
Kung Fu Panda 3 was second with $12.5 million, a bit above my $10.8M projection for a four week haul of $114M.
Biblical drama Risen was the top newcomer in third with $11.8 million, not quite reaching my $14.2M prediction. This is a fair debut and it hopes to experience smallish declines as Easter approaches.
Critically lauded low budget horror pic The Witch debuted in fourth with $8.8 million, ahead of my $6.7M estimate. Considering its reported $1 million budget, this is quite a tidy sum.
Rom com How to Be Single was fifth in its second weekend with $8.2 million, just below my prediction of $9.2M for a two week total of $31M.
Jesse Owens biopic Race had a muted sixth place premiere with $7.3 million, below my $10.6M forecast.
Finally, Ben Stiller’s box office dud of a sequel slipped to seventh with $5.4 million (I said $6.1M) for a total of just $23M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
