This coming Friday, the true life hostage drama Captive enters theaters on a reported screen count of a relatively low 800. The film stars David Oyelowo and Kate Mara (fresh off summer flop Fantastic Four). Captive is centered on the 2005 Atlanta case of Brian Nichols (Oyelowo) and his kidnapping of a young woman (Mara).
I suspect that adult moviegoers will be far more preoccupied with Johnny Depp’s Black Mass for this to gain any momentum at the box office. The low theater count doesn’t bode well either.
As I see it, Captive is likely to struggle to even reach $5 million and might fail to reach half that number. It should be available for VOD viewing in no time.
Premiering one year after its predecessor, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials hopes to built upon the solid grosses the franchise began with and perhaps surpass them. The dystopian series, based on popular YA novels by T.S. Nowlin, brings back original stars including Dylan O’Brien and Patricia Clarkson along with some other recognizable faces like Giancarlo Esposito, Barry Pepper and Lili Taylor.
Some prognosticators have Scorch Trails debuting considerably higher than the first film. I’m just not convinced. The original opened on the same weekend last year to the tune of $32.5 million with an eventual domestic gross of $102M. Predictions reflecting a belief that this will manage mid 40s or higher seem a tad lofty for me.
For comparison sake, a similarly themed franchise that began with Divergent made $54 million out of the gate and its sequel this year Insurgent rolled out with a slightly smaller $52 million. I do believe Scorch Trials will outdo the first, but not by much at all.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million
Riding a wave of positive buzz generated from film festivals over the weekend, Scott Cooper’s gangster pic Black Mass rolls out in theaters next Friday and the results could be impressive. A true life story focusing on notorious Boston crime kingpin Whitey Bulger, Johnny Depp plays the title character and it’s nabbed him some of the best reviews he’s had in years. There’s even Oscar talk happening, for Depp and possibly the film itself.
The stellar supporting cast includes Joel Edgerton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kevin Bacon, Dakota Johnson, Adam Scott, Peter Sarsgaard, and Corey Stoll. Mass is currently at a pleasing 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Most importantly, the pic has been well marketed and represents a real choice for adults after the summer blockbusters are now fading.
While the Maze Runner sequel may capture the attention of younger viewers, I look for Black Mass to have a very healthy start. In fact, I believe the chances of it over performing are greater than the alternative. I think it could exceed $30 million out of the gate, but I’ll put it just under.
Black Mass opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million
As the fall box office season gets underway, three new titles open Friday: romantic thriller The Perfect Guy, low budget M. Night Shyamalan horror pic The Visit and faith based drama 90 Minutes in Heaven. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions post on each here:
I believe the new releases stand a decent chance at filling the top three slots this weekend. As I see it, The Perfect Guy should take the top spot unless The Visit over performs. I could also see The Visit not doing very well and it remains a large question mark. On a far less number of screens than its competitors, 90 Minutes should have a sturdy start but might be a little hindered by the continuing solid performance of the similarly themed War Room.
Speaking of War Room, I believe it and A Walk in the Woods should both experience smallish declines (par for the course on the post Labor Day weekend) and round out the top five. And with that, my predictions:
The Perfect Guy
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
2. The Visit
Predicted Gross: $17 million
3. 90 Minutes in Heaven
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. War Room
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. A Walk in the Woods
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (September 4-7)
As expected, the Labor Day weekend was sluggish but there were surprises to be had… particularly in the top two spots. War Room expanded on its screen count and therefore its numbers and unexpectedly took the #1 spot away from three peat champ Straight Outta Compton. Over the four day holiday, it took in $13.3 million to bring its two week tally to $28 million. I only had it earning $7.7 million. Oops
The other pic doing better than expected business: the Robert Redford travel flick A Walk in the Woods which took second with $10.9 million over the weekend and $12.8 million since its Wednesday bow. It greatly surpassed my respective projections of just $4.3 and $5.8 million. Oops again.
Dipping to third was Straight Outta Compton with $10.8 million, under my $14.3 million estimate. Its terrific four week total stands at $149 million. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation was fourth with $9.4 million (I said $9.9M) for an overall $182 million total.
The Transporter: Refueled opened with a whimper at $9 million, a bit under my $10.2M prediction. The Owen Wilson thriller No Escape was sixth with $7 million (just ahead of my $6M estimate) for a $20M take.
This Friday, the Christian themed drama 90 Minutes in Heaven looks to bring in an audience that just made War Room a surprise success. It could succeed. Based on a popular novel, the film stars Hayden Christensen, Kate Bosworth, and Dwight Yoakam.
Over the last few years, these faith based flicks have had a knack of making more than prognosticators have anticipated. As mentioned, just two weeks ago, War Room took in $11 million on just over 1000 screens for a second place showing. The current numbers have Heaven debuting on around 800 (this could change, of course).
I really see no reason why this won’t post a similar result, so we’ll say this reaches just past double digits in its opening.
90 Minutes in Heaven opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
This coming Friday, the romantic thriller The Perfect Guy hits theaters and it could make a legitimate play for the #1 spot. Sanaa Lathan, Michael Ealy, and Morris Chestnut headline the Screen Gems release and it should be quite successful in bringing in its intended African American audience.
For comparison sake, one only needs to look to last September. The similarly themed No Good Deed with Taraji P. Henson and Idris Elba opened on the same weekend to the tune of $24.5 million with an eventual $54 million domestic gross. Another similar genre, 2009’s Obsessed with Beyonce and Elba, made $28 million out of the gate. Those titles had a little more star power than The Perfect Guy and it may not quite reach the numbers they accomplished. Still, it seems like a fairly solid bet to cross the $20M mark.
The Perfect Guy opening weekend prediction: $21.9 million
There was a time when the name of director M. Night Shyamalan pretty much meant guaranteed box office success, especially in the horror genre. That time was over a decade ago, however, and this Friday’s The Visit will be a true test as to whether his name can still fill seats. It might be somewhat tough.
The good news for distributor Universal Pictures is the budget is reportedly a tiny $5 million and profitability is virtually assured. The creepy tale centers on two kids visiting their possibly crazy grandparents. We’re a ways away from A listers like Bruce Willis, Mel Gibson, Mark Wahlberg, and Will Smith headlining Shyamalan’s offering. The Visit features an unknown cast and is banking solely on bringing in a horror crowd and hoping Night’s name assists.
It was a long time ago that Signs debuted to $60 million and The Village made $50 million out of the gate. The director’s lowest opening was in 2006 with the reviled Lady in the Water, which made $18 million. The Visit could compete with that number and it certainly has the capacity to over perform. Ultimately, though, I see this marking the director’s worst opening for a still rather stellar start considering the mini budget and probably coming in second to competitor The Perfect Guy.
Unlike most holiday weekend frames, Labor Day isn’t exactly known for studios bringing out heavy hitters and that remains unchanged in 2015. There are two new releases finding their way to theaters over the long weekend: franchise reboot The Transporter: Refueled and Robert Redford led A Walk in the Woods (which opens Wednesday).You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect much from either. While Transporter has a reasonable shot at debuting #1, a lot of summer holdovers end up doing more Labor Day weekend than they did the previous weekend. If that holds true for Straight Outta Compton, as I believe it will, that means it will be #1 for the fourth straight weekend. As I see it, Transporter could be second or third depending on how well Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation increases its gross. The Christian themed War Room got off to a much better than anticipated start, but I actually see it losing close to a third of its opening weekend audience while No Escape (which also debuted above expectations) may lose about a fourth. That would leave Mr. Redford and his Woods in sixth place.
And with that, my predictions for the four day Labor Day weekend top six:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing an increase of 9%)
2. The Transporter: Refueled
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 23%)
4. War Room
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. No Escape
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. A Walk in the Woods
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (Friday to Monday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)
Box Office Results (August 28-30)
The NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton made it a three peat this weekend with $13.1 million (just above my $12.5M estimate) to bring its impressive total to $134 million. While I pretty much got that right, I stumbled when it came to predicting the weekend’s newcomers.
The aforementioned War Room easily beat expectations with a terrific $11.3 million for second place (surging above my $5.7M prediction). Considering its reported $3M budget, this is a wonderful beginning for it.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation took third with $8.1 million, just beyond my $7.4M projection for a total of $170M.
Just behind Mission was the Owen Wilson/Pierce Brosnan thriller No Escape which also made $8.1 million over the traditional weekend and $10.1 million since its Wednesday debut. This outshines my respective predictions of $4.7M and $6.3M and is a better start than most anticipated.
Rounding out the top five was Sinister 2 in its sophomore frame with $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and its two week total is an unimpressive $18M.
Where I really went wrong was with the Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends, which had an absolutely putrid $1.7 million start for only 13th place. I had it second with $10.9M… oops! Clearly audiences had zero interest in Friends and it managed only an embarrassing $770 per screen average.
A host of recognizable faces populate this Wednesday’s adventure comedy A Walk in the Woods, but that may not mean it will be granted box office success. Robert Redford, Nick Nolte, Emma Thompson, Nick Offerman and Mary Steenburgen headline this pic based on a 1998 novel by travel writer Bill Bryson, whom Mr. Redford portrays. Ken Kwapis directs and he’s certainly had a fascinating career with titles like the Cyndi Lauper 1988 vehicle Vibes and Fran Drescher’s Beautician and the Beast to his credit.
Critics have not been impressed and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently at 45%. The marketing campaign has been subdued and there could be many moviegoers who simply aren’t aware of Woods existence. Its five day opening number is unlikely to reach double digits and I question whether even $5 million is feasible. I think it’ll just top that, which isn’t exactly an accomplishment.
A Walk in the Woods opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my The Transporter: Refueled prediction, click here:
On Labor Day weekend, the fourth entry in the Transporter franchise hits theaters nearly seven years after the third edition with The Transporter: Refueled. A lot has changed in the meantime. Most notably, the series star Jason Statham is nowhere to be found and English rapper/actor Ed Skrein is the leading man. Cowritten by Luc Besson, who’s scripted the other films, Refueled will attempt to revitalize a franchise that had begun losing steam with part three.
It won’t be an easy task. The original pic in 2002 debuted to $9 million with an eventual $25 million domestic take. 2005’s Transporter 2 marked the highs of the series with a $16 million premiere and $43 million eventual gross. 2008’s Transporter 3 made $12 million out of the gate with a $31 million haul. The absence of Statham and long wait between pics leads me to believe The Transporter: Refueled may struggle to reach double digits. I think it’ll just manage it, if only due to the lack of product currently in the marketplace.
The Transporter: Refueled opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million (Friday to Monday for Labor Day weekend)
For my A Walk in the Woods prediction, click here:
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