Tag: Box Office

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension Box Office Prediction

It’s being billed as the final installment in a successful franchise that began in 2009 and this coming Friday marks the sixth entry in the Paranormal Activity series with The Ghost Dimension. Due to a number of factors, it’s probable that this franchise “finale” may go out with a bit of a whimper.

First off, the found footage horror pic furthers along a series of films that began losing its box office potency with its last effort, The Marked Ones. It opened in January of 2014 to $18.3 million on its way to a meager $32M domestic gross. For comparison sake, 2010’s Paranormal Activity 2 made $40 million out of the gate and ended up at $84M stateside. The third edition was the high point with a $52 million debut and $104M overall haul. The fourth Activity is when things started to decline with a $29 million opening and $53M overall take.

Perhaps even more importantly, The Ghost Dimension is rolling out on far less screens than its predecessors due to Paramount’s decision to release the pic only 17 days after its theatrical release. Many cinema chains have balked at that decision and simply chosen against allowing Dimension to play on their screens. It’s slated to be on about 1400 screens (the fifth entry debuted on over 2800).

Due to those factors, I’m predicting the ceiling for Dimension is low double digits and I’ll actually say it falls just short of that mark.

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Steve Jobs Box Office Prediction

The last time audiences were exposed to a film about Apple founder Steve Jobs, it was Ashton Kutcher playing him in 2013’s Jobs, which got mostly negative reviews and sputtered at the box office with only $16 million.

What a difference two years makes. This Friday comes Steve Jobs, with Oscar winning director Danny Boyle behind the camera and Oscar winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin penning the script. Michael Fassbender plays the title role with Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, and Jeff Daniels in the supporting cast. Since it premiered on the film festival circuit weeks ago, it’s been subject to fervent Oscar buzz. Chances are excellent that it will receive nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Winslet). Reviews have been strong.

All this positive buzz means Steve Jobs could gross the highest among the four other pictures it’s premiering against. The most obvious comparison for an opening weekend would be 2010’s The Social Network (also written by Sorkin), which debuted to over $22 million. Jobs could certainly reach that margin, but Social Network did have considerably less competition in its first weekend. I’ll predict this gets to high teens out of the gate and settles in for a nice run throughout the awards season.

Steve Jobs opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million

For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/15/the-last-witch-hunter-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

The Last Witch Hunter Box Office Prediction

Vin Diesel puts the car in park and stars in his first non franchise sequel in over seven years as The Last Witch Hunter hits screens next Friday. The supernatural action pic features Diesel in the title role with Rose Leslie, Elijah Wood, and Michael Caine in the supporting cast.

Other than his voice only role in 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy, Diesel’s screen appearances in the last few years has been limited to the Fast and Furious series and the third entry in the Riddick series. The last time he starred in a franchise hopeful that wasn’t ongoing was 2008’s Babylon A.D., which stumbled with a $9.4 million debut.

Diesel seems confident in Hunter‘s box office appeal and has hinted that a sequel is forthcoming. However, in order for that to occur, this needs to at least come close to reaching its reported $90 million budget. That could be tricky stateside. There’s a lot of competition out there and some supernatural genre fans could turn their attention instead to the latest Paranormal Activity flick, which opens against it.

I’ll predict The Last Witch Hunter manages a gross in the mid teens, which is likely not enough to scare up anticipation for Diesel’s sequel. There’s always Fast 8.

The Last Witch Hunter opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Steve Jobs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/steve-jobs-box-office-prediction/

For my Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/paranormal-activity-the-ghost-dimension-box-office-prediction/

For my Rock the Kasbah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/rock-the-kasbah-box-office-prediction/

For my Jem and the Holograms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/16/jem-and-the-holograms-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 16-18

It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.

As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.

And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

6. Pan

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)

As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).

Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.

Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Woodlawn Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the faith based sports drama Woodlawn hits screens and it’s the latest in a steady stream of pictures in the genre to roll out. The desegregation football true story features Sean Astin, Jon Voight and Sherri Shepherd and comes from the makers of Moms’ Night Out, which made just $4.2 million in its debut in May 2014.

Woodlawn is slated to premiere on around 1500 screens, a relatively low number. In August of 2014, another Christian themed gridiron drama, When the Game Stands Tall, opened to $8.3 million on over 2600 screens. It would stand to reason that Woodlawn’s gross will be quite a bit lower, due to theater count alone.

Add it all up and I have it opening to just over what Moms’ Night Out earned for a pretty muted start.

Woodlawn opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

Crimson Peak Box Office Prediction

Guillermo del Toro has earned his reputation as one of the most visionary directors working today with credits including the Hellboy pics, Pan’s Labyrinth, and Pacific Rim. Next weekend comes his latest effort: the gothic horror tale Crimson Peak, which features Alice in Wonderland star Mia Wasikowska, Tom Hiddleston, Jessica Chastain, and Charlie Hunnam.

The $55 million dollar production isn’t expected to reach the box office numbers of the Hellboy movies or Pacific Rim. It doesn’t help that competition is rather fierce with Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps opening the same day with The Martian in its third weekend. Crimson Peak could get somewhat lost in the shuffle for film goers that aren’t del Toro or horror aficionados. Strong reviews could help (they haven’t yet been released but I wouldn’t be surprised if it earns solid notices), but I still will predict this peaks at mid to high teens for its debut.

Crimson Peak opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Goosebumps Box Office Prediction

Based on the well known series of children’s books by R.L. Stine, the family friendly Goosebumps opens in theaters next weekend, hoping to bring in a sizable kid crowd. The film is directed by Rob Letterman and Jack Black, who teamed up in 2010 for Gulliver’s Travels, which failed at the box office to the tune of $42 million.

This time around, they appear to have fairly positive word of mouth on their side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score and a sequel possibly in the works. It also doesn’t hurt that its release date is close to Halloween. Family audiences turned out big time for Hotel Transylvania 2, however, so whether there’s a major clamor for scarily themed entertainment remains to be seen.

I could envision this opening to around the same number that Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day made last October: $18.3 million. I’ll say Goosebumps just tops that for a respectable start and we’ll see how it plays in future weekends.

Goosebumps opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Bridge of Spies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Bridge of Spies Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, a surefire Oscar hopeful hits the screens as Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies opens. The Cold War era thriller stars Tom Hanks in his fourth collaboration with the famed director. Costars include Mark Rylance, Alan Alda, and Amy Ryan.

The Disney property premiered at the New York Film Festival last weekend and immediately became fodder for Academy Awards talk. Sitting at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes currently, Spies appears to be a strong contender for a Best Picture nod and for Rylance in the Supporting Actor category (critics have really singled him out). Spielberg and Hanks could see their names called as well in Director and Actor.

These adult themed dramas typically don’t have massive openings and tend to play well from weekend to weekend. For comparisons sake, 2012’s Best Picture winner Argo debuted in October to $19.4 million while October 2013’s Captain Phillips featuring Hanks opened with $25.7 million. That seems like a pretty sensible range for where Bridge of Spies will start out. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite reach Phillips gross while slightly outshining Argo.

Bridge of Spies opening weekend prediction: $21.2 million

For my Goosebumps prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

For my Crimson Peak prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

For my Woodlawn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 9-11

October rolls along at the box office as family friendly Pan debuts while The Walk expands and critically approved thriller 99 Homes opens in more limited fashion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Pan and The Walk right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/01/pan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/02/the-walk-box-office-prediction/

Pan has been the subject of many negative reviews and it doesn’t help that Hotel Transylvania 2 should still be playing quite well with its intended audience in weekend #3. That leads me to predict that the Peter Pan story will only manage a third place showing out of the gate. The Walk actually had a fairly disappointing roll out in its limited IMAX release and I have it doing low double digits for a fourth place premiere. 99 Homes with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon is only opening on approximately 500 screens. It’s flying under the radar and I have it pegged for a gross of $1.8 million, far outside the top five (and maybe even top ten).

As for holdovers, Ridley Scott’s The Martian with Matt Damon blasted off to a terrific debut and word of mouth is strong. I don’t believe its drop will be very big and it should easily repeat at #1, with Hotel Transylvania 2 continuing its impressive haul in the runner up spot. The Intern and Sicario should battle for the five spot.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Pan

Predicted Gross: $17.6 milion

4. The Walk

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

5. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

As mentioned, The Martian exceeded expectations, capitalizing on stellar reviews for a $54.3 million opening (well beyond my $40.3M estimate). That’s good for the second biggest October premiere of all time, just behind Gravity from 2013. It’s also Matt Damon’s second highest debut after The Bourne Ultimatum. 

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 held up better than my prognostication with $32.9 million in its sophomore frame, compared to my $26.2M forecast. It’s made $90 million so far.

Border thriller Sicario had a pretty sturdy wide release with $12 million, not quite matching my $13M prediction. Strong reviews helped and it hopes to experience fairly small declines in subsequent weekends.

In its second weekend, The Intern with Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro held up well with $11.6 million compared to my $10.5M estimate and its two week total stands at $36 million.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials was fifth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2M forecast to bring its gross to $63 million. Sixth place belonged to Black Mass with $5.8 million ($52M total). I incorrectly had it outside the top six because I predicted Everest would be in the spot. It was seventh with $5.6 million (below my $7.7M estimate) to brings its underwhelming total to $33 million.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

The Walk Box Office Prediction

Recounting the true story of Philippe Petit’s tight rope walk across the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in the mid 1970s, Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk hits theaters next Friday after its limited IMAX debut. Starring Joseph Gordon Levitt, Ben Kingsley and James Badge Dale, the pic looks to capitalize on its mostly positive reviews (85% on Rotten Tomatoes currently) for stellar returns.

I’m of the opinion this will just do OK numbers. First, we’ve just recently seen a similar IMAX to wide roll out with Everest and it brought in less than expected numbers when it hit over 2000 screens at $13.2 million. I don’t believe The Walk will outdo what Everest accomplished. There’s also plenty of competition in the form of adult titles like The Martian and Sicario, both of which will be entering their second weekends.

Add all that up and I’m thinking low double digits out of the gate.

The Walk opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

For my Pan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/01/pan-box-office-prediction/