Most biographical sports films focus on football or boxing in recent years, but Disney changes it up next weekend with The Queen of Katwe. The pic tells the true-life tale of Ugandan chess master Phiona Mutesi (Madina Nalwanga). Mira Nair directs with a cast including David Oyelowo and recent Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o.
Katwe screened at the Toronto Film Festival to positive critical reaction (it’s at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). At one time, this was looked at as a potential awards hopeful yet that has been tampered down a bit (Nyong’o could be a factor in Supporting Actress, but probably not). The film comes with a rather minor $15 million budget.
Disney’s best hope is for a decent opening followed by long legs if audiences love what they see. Opening on a relatively small 1252 screens, expectations aren’t too high and I’ll predict this manages to reach $5 million for its start.
Queen of Katwe opening weekend prediction: $5 million
At long last, the heist comedy Masterminds hits theaters next weekend after much delay. Whether or not it’s able to steal some box office dollars is very much in question. Director Jared Hess broke through in a big way 12 years ago with his sleeper hit Napoleon Dynamite. His follow-up, 2006’s Nacho Libre with Jack Black, was a critical letdown which still managed to make $80 million domestic.
Since then, Mr. Hess’s efforts have been little-seen and poorly reviewed efforts. 2009’s Gentlemen Broncos? 2015’s Don Verdean? Anyone? Masterminds had the whiff of a return to form, but it’s been mired in the financial distresses of its studio, Relativity. The pic was originally scheduled for release in August of last year and then October (hence its trailer having been around for quite some time).
The talent involved here is serious – Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, Jason Sudeikis, Kate McKinnon, and Leslie Jones. That’s three new Ghostbusters by the way – even though the ladies shot that reboot after this. Recognizable stars aside, I have a feeling that all of the delays and a fairly quiet marketing campaign will hurt Masterminds immensely.
I’m tempted to go really low — like $4 million, folks. I believe this may manage to reach a bit beyond that. Double digits seems like a reach, however.
Masterminds opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Nearly two years ago, Tim Burton had the second lowest grossing feature of his career (after 1994’s Ed Wood) with Big Eyes. To cushion the blow, that particular film was a low-budget drama that wasn’t expected to rank among his array of blockbusters.
Next weekend, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children finds Burton back in more familiar territory. It’s a fantastical adventure based on a well-known property (Ransom Riggs’s 2011 bestseller) with dark themes. Sounds like a Burton flick to me! Eva Green plays the title character with a supporting cast that includes Asa Butterfield, Chris O’Dowd, Allison Janney, Rupert Everett, Terence Stamp, Judi Dench, and Samuel L. Jackson.
It’s been six years since Mr. Burton has had a massive hit – 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (he didn’t direct this year’s flop of a sequel). This is also his first blockbuster hopeful not headlined by Johnny Depp in a little while. Even though it’s based on a novel with a solid following, I’m not convinced this will break out at the box office with its lack of star power and a director whose box office potency has waned.
My Peculiar estimate has this not reaching $20 million. This is under some other prognosticators expectations and would be considered a disappointment for Burton and company.
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
The last time that director Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg hooked up, their war drama Lone Survivor grossed a terrific $125 million domestically in early 2014. Nearly three years later, the pair have collaborated on Deepwater Horizon. This is another true-life tale focused on the 2010 BP oil rig explosion and the people who had to battle it. Costars include Kurt Russell, Kate Hudson, John Malkovich, Gina Rodriguez, and Dylan O’Brien.
With a reported budget of $156 million, Summit Entertainment better hope moviegoers flock to see the disaster pic… or they may have their own financial disaster on their hands. Early reviews have been mostly strong. It stands at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with critics particularly praising its technical aspects.
Lone Survivor earned $37 million in its first weekend of wide release. That is probably the highest of bars for Horizon. One difference is that Survivor benefited from strong military interest that simply won’t come into play here. Still, the combination of Wahlberg with this well-known story could be enough to get this to mid 20s, in range with the opening of Captain Phillips from three years back or Fury from two years ago.
Deepwater Horizon opening weekend prediction: $24.7 million
For my Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children prediction, click here:
This past weekend, all newcomers failed to connect with audiences, but the fourth weekend of September has two openings where their prospects look more solid. They are the Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western remake The Magnificent Seven and Warner Bros animated Storks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
I have Seven slated for the second largest September debut of all time, just behind last year’s Hotel Transylvania 2. As for Storks, I’m predicting a solid second place start.
Sully should fall to third after two weeks on top. As for the aforementioned newbies from last weekend, Bridget Jones’s Baby seems likely to have the smallest decline in its sophomore frame over Blair Witch and Snowden. In fact, while Blair Witch had the highest opening of the fresh titles (which isn’t saying much), I have it primed for a massive drop due to its putrid D+ Cinemascore average.
As far as where the readers think I am with predictions on our two newcomers:
The Magnificent Seven: 36% Too High, 35% Just About Right, 29% Too Low – quite the even split!
Storks: 46% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 18% Too High
In last weekend’s poll, 74% incorrectly (including I) guessed that Blair Witch would be #1 while 26% correctly said Sully.
And with that, let’s do a top six for this weekend:
1. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $47.1 million
2. Storks
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
3. Sully
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. Bridget Jones’s Baby
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. Snowden
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Blair Witch
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 65%)
Box Office Results (September 16-18)
Sully once again landed (the pun is old, I know) safely in first place for the second weekend in a row with $21.6 million – just shy of my $23.3M forecast. The Tom Hanks hit has earned $70M thus far.
The curse of the Blair Witch applied to its dismal box office numbers as the sequel to the 1999 smash hit made just $9.5 million. I originally predicted $27.4 million before revising it down to $22.4M. I should have kept going down further and further. In a year that’s been mighty good for horror, the Witch debut gave us a rare dud. However, keeping things in perspective, it did only cost a measly $5 million to make, so it nearly doubled its budget in three days.
In more underwhelming sequel news – Renee Zellweger’s return to the big screen in her signature role was met with a shrug as Bridget Jones’s Baby earned $8.5 million, under my $12.3M estimate. The third entry in the franchise (and first in 12 years) posted its lowest debut in third, just under the $8.6M of 2004’s Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason.
Oliver Stone’s Snowden was fourth with $8 million, a bit ahead of my $6.8M prediction. This is just an OK showing as mixed reviews and perhaps a distaste for political drama on the big screen contributed to its ambivalent roll out.
Don’t Breathe stayed in the top five with $5.6 million ($75M total). I incorrectly didn’t include it as its drop-off was smaller than I anticipated.
When the Bough Breaks was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million (I said $5.6M). It’s made $22M.
Last and least – the Christian concert doc Hillsong – Let Hope Rise tanked with only $1.3 million – less than half of my $3M projection for an unlucky 13th place showing.
And that will do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Warner Bros keeps the onslaught of animated titles being delivered to theaters going with Storks, opening next weekend. The comedic adventure comes from Nicholas Stoller and Doug Sweetland. Mr. Stroller is known for his live-action genre titles like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek, and the Neighbors franchise. The pic features the voices of Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Kelsey Grammer, and Ty Burrell.
2016 has been a banner year for animated material with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets and critically acclaimed fare like Kubo and the Two Strings and Sausage Party. With all those titles mentioned, it’s a distinct possibility that an animated feature will really have to stand out now for family audiences to plunk down their dollars. Whether Storks fits that bill is a legit question.
September has been an occasionally fruitful month for the genre. Hotel Transylvania and its sequel are responsible for the month’s two largest openings at $42 and $48 million, respectively. The two Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs flicks both opened above $30 million. Warner Bros should be ecstatic if Storks manages those numbers.
I don’t believe this will quite reach that level and a debut in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Storks opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million
For my The Magnificent Seven prediction, click here:
There are few actors out there who can truly open a movie, but Denzel Washington is one of them. He’s back on screen for the first time in two years with The Magnificent Seven next weekend. A remake of the 1960 classic with Yul Brynner (which itself was a reworking of 1954’s Seven Samurai), this Western re-teams Washington with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua. It also features the red-hot Chris Pratt, Training costar Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, Peter Sarsgaard, and Haley Bennett.
Early reviews for Seven have been mixed, but this is likely to be a critic proof exercise that delivers an impressive debut. To give you some perspective on Washington’s star power, his last seven pictures have made over $20 million out of the gate (The Taking of Pelham 123, The Book of Eli, Unstoppable, Safe House, Flight, 2 Guns, The Equalizer). Three (Eli, House, Equalizer) have topped $30M and Safe House managed $40M. With its familiar title and the participation of Pratt (coming off summer 2014’s biggest hit Guardians of the Galaxy and summer 2015’s biggest hit Jurassic World), Seven could also join the plus $40M club. In fact, if this reaches over $43 million (the number that Washington’s 2007 pic American Gangster accomplished), it would mark his largest opening.
I believe it will accomplish that feat for a mid to high 40s debut and that would give it the #2 September premiere of all time.
The Magnificent Seven opening weekend prediction: $47.1 million
The third weekend of September brings us four new films (just as last weekend did) and they are: horror sequel Blair Witch, rom com three-quel Bridget Jones’s Baby, Oliver Stone’s political thriller Snowden, and faith-based concert documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Bridget Jones’s Baby looks like it’ll easily place third for the weekend – unless Snowden does considerably better than my estimate. However, I have Snowden pretty far behind in fourth.
Hillsong is unpredictable (it doesn’t help that I don’t have a screen count). I have it in eighth place at $3 million.
The battle for #1 could be one to watch. My estimate for Blair Witch puts it there, but I expect Sully to experience a rather smallish decline. If Witch comes in below my prognosis, the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks could land in first for the second frame.
As for current #2 When the Bough Breaks, I look for it to place fifth with a hefty decline.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Blair Witch: 36% Too High, 33% Just About Right, 31% Too Low
Bridget Jones’s Baby: 51% Too Low, 32% Just About Right, 17% Too High
Snowden: 71% Too Low, 23% Just About Right, 6% Too High
**I made my Hillsong prediction just this evening, so no real data on that one yet.
And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Blair Witch
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million
2. Sully
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. Bridget Jones’s Baby
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
4. Snowden
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Sully had a terrific debut over the weekend with $35 million – good for the fifth highest September opening ever and coming in above my $28.5M estimate. It also marks Tom Hanks’s largest live-action premiere in seven years. With an A Cinemascore grade, expect Sully to have sturdy legs moving forward.
The news wasn’t as good for When the Bough Breaks, which made $14.2 million for runner-up status. I was way higher with $22.7M. The romantic thriller couldn’t match the September openings of similarly themed 2014 and 2015 pics – No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy. That said, Bough‘s price tag is only a reported $10 million so a tidy profit is in order for studio Screen Gems.
Don’t Breathe, as expected, dropped to third after two weeks on top with $8.2 million – in line with my $7.5M forecast for a total of $66M. Suicide Squad was fourth with $5.7 million (I predicted $5.1M) for a $307M tally.
Fifth place belonged to Belgian animated entry The Wild Life and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It earned $3.3 million (I went with $3.2M) for a lackluster beginning.
Kubo and the Two Strings was sixth, also at $3.3 million (I said $3.8M) to bring its gross to $40M.
Last and least, Kate Beckinsale’s horror flick The Disappointments Room bombed in a 17th place showing with just $1.4 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.3M.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
BLOGGER’S Update: (09-12-16, 8:24pm) It’s just been revealed that Hillsong will only be released on approximately 815 screens. This lowers my projection to $3 million dollars.
This Friday, the faith based concert film Hillsong – Let Hope Rise hits theaters and will try to attract music loving Christian moviegoers. The documentary chronicles the Australian band’s story as they’ve sold millions of albums since their formation in 1998. It was originally scheduled to be released over a year ago, but was pushed back at least twice due to the bankruptcy of its studio.
Yes, I Googled all of this information as Hillsong is not a group I’m personally familiar with. My uncertainty for its box office prognosis is on a couple of levels. I don’t have a screen count for it yet, most importantly. The difference between 800 theaters or 2000 could greatly fluctuate my estimate (I’ll reserve the right to change this when it is released). Also, faith based audiences have been known to cause pictures to greatly exceed expectations.
So… guess work, folks! As it stands now, I’ll say Hillsong reaches somewhere between $4-6 million and we’ll see how it goes…
Hillsong – Let Hope Rise opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Updated – see above)
Four have passed since Oliver Stone released his last picture and it’s been eight years since he’s gotten political. That changes next weekend when Snowden hits theaters. This is a biopic of former CIA analyst Edward Snowden with Joseph Gordon -Levitt in the title role. A stellar supporting cast includes Shailene Woodley, Melissa Leo, Tom Wilkinson, Zachary Quinto, Scott Eastwood, Timothy Olyphant, Rhys Ifans, and Nicolas Cage.
The thriller was originally set for release in December of last year before being pushed to May and, finally, September. Snowden will be a test as to whether audiences wish to spend over two hours witnessing a story well-publicized in the press and already covered in the recent documentary Citizenfour.
My feeling is the answer will be no. Political dramas often struggle at the box office and I don’t see that as an exception. My prediction is Snowden doesn’t reach double digits in its debut as many moviegoers may be getting their fill of current events on the small screen.
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