My Love of Movies IV

Four years ago on a Thursday evening, I made the snap decision to start a movie blog. I did it without much thought and with little clue what I wanted it to be.

I knew two things: I love movies and I love writing. And so I penned my first blog post. It’s called “My Love of Movies”. Look at it. Isn’t it adorable?

https://toddmthatcher.com/2012/10/11/my-love-of-movies/

Then came the first anniversary. I wrote about that here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/10/10/you-could-see-that-pierre-did-truly-love-the-mademoiselle-my-blog-turns-1-years-old/

Then the second anniversary:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/09/my-love-of-movies-part-ii-the-blogs-second-anniversary/

And the third:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/11/the-blog-turns-3/

Yes, maybe the anniversary posts have dwindled in quality as time has passed. With every year comes the familiarity of the blog having become more of a reality. More of everyday life. What I’m writing at this moment is my 1,516th post.

Truth be told – 2016 hasn’t been the best year for movies. Oh, don’t get me wrong. There’s always those moments that I’ve described so lovingly in previous posts. A truly hilarious scene at an animated DMV run by sloths in Zootopia. A comic book adaptation in Deadpool that had moments of raunchy inspiration. And there’s a lot more for me to see in 2016.

Let’s get real for a second, friends. 2016 hasn’t been the best year for lots of things. Political discourse for one, but let us not go THERE.

Sequels. Too many of ’em. Too many we didn’t ask for.

Apparently Zoolander did say all that needed to be said fifteen years ago. Audiences weren’t ready to travel back to the Blair Witch woods. I could go on.

But I won’t. No, where 2016 has been truly sad is in the people we’ve lost. Hans Gruber of Die Hard is one of the greatest film villains in screen history. Alan Rickman brilliantly played him, along with lots of other amazing performances.

Gene Wilder may hold the record for appearing in the most flat out brilliant comedies, not to mention being a part of our collective childhoods in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.

Our ears have been blessed to experience the music of Prince and David Bowie and witness their contributions to film.

I know what you might be thinking… this anniversary post is a bummer, dude!

A silver lining. A consolation point. We will always have film to remind us of the aforementioned artists brilliance.

We will always have the knowledge that the cherished memories we have of them are preserved.

We will always have the knowledge, film lovers that we are, that more memories will be formed with new amazing performers.

Every week on this blog, there are more box office predictions to be estimated. More Oscar Watch movies to be discussed. More reviews to be written.

There’s always more. It’s the NeverEnding Story of film that I described here three years ago:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/05/the-neverending-story/

Are there times it feels stale when the latest unwanted sequel is rolled out? Sure.

Are there moments you wonder where else the superhero genre can possibly go when we get a new one every couple months now? Yes.

And then Star Wars: The Force Awakens turns out to be a pleasure… and not unwanted. And then Deadpool brings something new to the genre.

I remember four years ago tonight writing that first blog post and wondering if I’d have any ideas for a second one. Then I figured out what I wanted the blog to be… and it constantly changes.

I love doing it. I thank you for reading it and I’m humbled to report that 2016 has been the most viewed year so far already! I’ve also tremendously valued my partnership with Fantasy Movie League that began this year and continuing my history of getting out predicted by Joe Giuliano at box office numbers.

2016 has been a challenge for us who love the silver screen and love incredible music. We remember that vile antagonist of John McClane in my favorite action movie ever.

We remember that gentle and hilarious man who brought us into a world of pure imagination.

We remember bathing in the beautiful sounds of the Purple Rain.

And we wait for the next moments of inspiration and all the other emotions that the movies bring.

They’ll come. They always do.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dCuhvqmTo7c

Box Office Predictions: October 14-16

The October box office rolls along as three new titles debut: Ben Affleck’s CIA thriller The Accountant, stand-up concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now?, and Mattel toy adaptation Max Steel. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/the-accountant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/kevin-hart-what-now-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, my estimated high teens for Accountant should be enough of a number to make it #1. For #2, I’m looking at an extremely tight race between Mr. Hart and Ms. Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train’s sophomore frame.

Due to a very low prognosis for Max Steel at $3.8 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon should round out the top five.

When it comes to where the readers are at with my newcomer estimates:

The Accountant – 48% Too Low, 43% Just About Right, 9% Too High

Kevin Hart: What Now? – 45% Just About Right, 33% Too High, 22% Too Low

Max Steel – 46% Too Low, 36% Too High, 18% Just About Right

And with that – my take on that top 5 for the weekend ahead:

1. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

2. Kevin Hart: What Now?

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

3. The Girl on the Train

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 7-9)

As expected, The Girl on the Train topped the charts, rolling in with $24.5 million. This is a pretty decent debut that did come in below my $28.2M forecast. However, its middling B Cinemascore grade indicates plenty of audience members weren’t wild about it.

Last weekend’s champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children dropped to second with $15.1 million, a bit ahead of my $14.3M projection. The 10 day total stands at $51 million.

In its sophomore frame, Deepwater Horizon was third with $11.5 million – in line with my $11.9M estimate for a $38 million total.

The Magnificent Seven was fourth with $9 million (higher than my too clever $7.7M prediction) and has earned $75 million.

Storks rounded out the high five at $8.2 million (I said $9.3M) and it’s earned an underwhelming $49 million.

Lackluster newbies were sixth and seventh. Once considered a strong Oscar contender, the fading The Birth of a Nation disappointed with $7 million. I went higher with $10.5M.

Teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life was right under with only $6.8 million (I said $7.8M).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Max Steel Box Office Prediction

Mattel toys are being brought to the big screen next weekend when Max Steel debuts. The superhero tale has a reported budget of just $15-$20 million and that’s probably a good thing for its sake.

Steel features Ben Winchell in the lead alongside Ana Villafane, Andy Garcia, and Maria Bello and some CG aliens. The marketing campaign for this seems pretty darn quiet and one wonders if its studio has much faith in it.

A much higher profile Mattel related property will arrive later when Justin Lin directs a pic based on the Hot Wheels line. As far as this one goes, unless there’s a legion of Max Steel lovers clamoring for a barely marketed adaptation, I see this debuting poorly and fading quickly.

Max Steel opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my The Accountant prediction, click here:

The Accountant Box Office Prediction

For my Kevin Hart: What Now? prediction, click here:

Kevin Hart: What Now? Box Office Prediction

Kevin Hart: What Now? Box Office Prediction

Kevin Hart has been busy at the box office in 2016. Ride Along 2 debuted in January with an overall gross of $90 million (shy of its predecessor, but not bad). This summer came Central Intelligence, his team-up with The Rock that marked his second highest grosser ever at $127 million (after the first Ride Along, which made $134M). While the comedian has broken through on the silver screen in a major way, he hasn’t forgotten his stand-up roots. That leads to Kevin Hart: What Now?, out next weekend, which presents his latest comedy tour with a show taped in 2015 in Philadelphia.

For comparisons sake, it’s been three years since Mr. Hart released his last stand-up pic theatrically. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain had a $10 million premiere with a $32M eventual domestic haul. Comedy concerts released in multiplexes are a rare breed, but there’s some hope this could outshine Explain. The most obvious reason is that Hart has become a much bigger movie star in the three years that have transpired. On the other hand, moviegoers know even more now that Now will likely be available for their viewing pleasure via streaming quite soon.

Add that up and I believe What Now? will manage to outpace Explain for a debut in the low to mid double digits.

Kevin Hart: What Now? opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million

For my The Accountant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/the-accountant-box-office-prediction/

For my Max Steel prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

The Accountant Box Office Prediction

It’s been a busy year for Mr. Ben Affleck as he made his debut as the Caped Crusader in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and will unveil his next directorial effort, the Prohibition era crime drama Live by Night, this December. And that’s not all because next weekend comes The Accountant.

The action thriller stars Batfleck and is directed by Gavin O’Connor, who’s had a mixed filmography with critical and commercial pleasers like Miracle and Warrior. There’s also his previous effort – the Natalie Portman flop of a Western Jane Got a Gun. This will be a true test of Affleck’s star power as he’s really the sole selling point. Costars include Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, Jon Bernthal, Jeffrey Tambor, and John Lithgow.

Two Octobers back, the star had one of his largest career hits with Gone Girl, which debuted to $37 million. The Accountant will try to lure in adult moviegoers who (unlike in the summer) have had plenty of offerings to choose from, including Sully, The Magnificent Seven, Deepwater Horizon, and The Girl on the Train. While this could reach over $20 million, a debut in the high teens seems like the numbers this Accountant will manage.

The Accountant opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

For my Kevin Hart: What Now? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/kevin-hart-what-now-box-office-prediction/

For my Max Steel prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 7-9

The first full weekend of the October box office brings us a trio of newcomers: big-screen adaptation of last year’s bestselling thriller The Girl on the Train, Nate Parker’s slavery drama The Birth of a Nation, and teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-girl-on-the-train-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-birth-of-a-nation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/middle-school-the-worst-years-of-my-life-box-office-prediction/

While my prediction for Train doesn’t get it near Gone Girl (the blockbuster pic released two years ago on the same weekend that it’s compared to the most), it shouldn’t have much trouble locking down the #1 position.

Birth has received plenty of publicity – first for its rave screenings at festivals and then regarding past legal issues for its director, writer, and star. I have this reaching just over double digits. As for Middle School, it could be stuck in a battle for the five spot with the third weekends of Magnificent Seven and Storks. That said, I’ll predict Storks has a small drop-off and leaps over both of them.

As for other holdovers, I expect current champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children to dip a bit further in its sophomore frame than Deepwater Horizon. Both should move down a spot to second and third.

Here’s how the blog’s readers feel about my estimates for the newbies:

The Girl on the Train – 48% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 15% Too High

The Birth of a Nation – 42% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 23% Too High

Middle School – 58% Too Low, 25% Too High, 17% Just About Right

And with that, a top 7 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Girl on the Train

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. The Birth of a Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Storks

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

6. Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

7. The Magnificent Seven

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (how about that?? – representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (September 30-October 2)

Tim Burton nabbed his seventh #1 opener of his filmography as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took in $28.8 million, schooling my $19.6M forecast. This is a pretty decent debut, though it’s unlikely to join the $100M club as six of the director’s other features have.

Deepwater Horizon premiered in second and I incorrectly had it making more than Peregrine and those strange kiddos. The big-budget disaster pic starring Mark Wahlberg had a muted start (especially considering its price tag) at $20.2 million, below my $24.7M estimate. Its best hope is for meager declines in coming weekends.

The Magnificent Seven was third, dipping a bit farther than anticipated in weekend 2 with $15.6 million. I predicted $18.2M. The Denzel Washington/Chris Pratt Western has made $61 million thus far.

Storks was fourth in its sophomore frame with $13.4 million (I was right there with a $13.2M estimate). The animated pic has grossed $38 million in ten days.

Sully was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $9.1M) as it entered nine digit territory with $105 million to date.

Lackluster newcomers filled the six and seven positions. The oft-delayed Masterminds earned $6.5 million, on the money with my $6.3M prediction. Disney’s Queen of Katwe failed to break through with audiences with just $2.4 million (less than half of my generous $5M projection).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life Box Office Prediction

The Girl on the Train isn’t the only title out next weekend based on a bestseller as Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life debuts. Based on James Patterson and Chris Tebbits’s 2011 book, the comedy aims to capitalize on its successful source material.

Griffin Gluck plays the middle schooler having a bad time with a supporting cast that includes Lauren Graham, Rob Riggle, and Andy Daly. Steve Carr (in his comfort zone after making other youth oriented yuck fests like Dr. Dolittle 2 and Paul Blart: Mall Cop) directs.

My expectation is that this will have a tough time breaking through to teens. The marketing campaign has been somewhat quiet. At least the animated blockbusters this year are geared toward a pre-teen audience and their parents attend, too. School could struggle to reach double digits, resulting in middling numbers.

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my The Girl on the Train prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-girl-on-the-train-box-office-prediction/

For my The Birth of a Nation prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-birth-of-a-nation-box-office-prediction/

The Birth of a Nation Box Office Prediction

When Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation debuted at the Sundance Film Festival all the way back in January, it garnered red-hot buzz that included awards chatter. Fox Searchlight quickly snatched up the rights and it rolls out in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of slave rebellion leader Nat Turner in 1831. Parker directed, produced, wrote, and stars in the $10 million production. Costars include Armie Hammer, Aja Naomi King, Jackie Earle Haley, Gabrielle Union, and Penelope Ann Miller.

Since its wildly successful roll out this past winter, Birth has faced an interesting and sometimes troubling journey to the wide release date. While its 82% on Rotten Tomatoes indicates the aforementioned positive critical reaction, the film has seemed to diminish in the view of Oscar forecasters. Whether that’s due to buzz waning or other worthy pictures being screened since then is an open question.

And, yes, there’s the matter of Nate Parker’s personal life stemming from a 1999 rape case and his accuser’s suicide years later. The matter has received significant publicity over the last few months. How the story affects Nation‘s box office performance obviously seems inconsequential considering the larger picture, but it must be taken into consideration for any prediction.

All of those factors have contributed to Birth losing some luster and, truth be told, my opening weekend prediction post Sundance probably would’ve been higher. I’ll predict this manages to get past double digits, but not by much.

The Birth of a Nation opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Girl on the Train prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-girl-on-the-train-box-office-prediction/

For my Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/middle-school-the-worst-years-of-my-life-box-office-prediction/

The Girl on the Train Box Office Prediction

Just last year, the novel The Girl on the Train by Paula Hawkins became a massive bestseller and Universal Pictures wasted no time in getting the big screen adaptation to eager audiences. The book has been described as the “next Gone Girl” and the studio would love to replicate that film adaptation’s success here.

The thriller is directed by The Help‘s Tate Taylor and stars Emily Blunt with a supporting cast that includes Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett, Justin Theroux, Luke Evans, Allison Janney, Edgar Ramirez, Lisa Kudrow, and Laura Prepon.

Train should undoubtedly bring in fans of the source material (including a hefty female demographic). Yet reaching the heights of Gone Girl seems like a fairly unlikely prospect. Two years ago in the same first October weekend, the David Fincher effort earned just over $37 million out of the gate. It wouldn’t shock me to see this top $30M for its opening weekend, but I believe a mid-high 20s gross is more probable. If Train manages solid audience buzz, it could keep chugging along with smallish drops in future weekends.

The Girl on the Train opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million

For my The Birth of a Nation prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-birth-of-a-nation-box-office-prediction/

For my Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/middle-school-the-worst-years-of-my-life-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: September 30-October 2

Four new titles roll out in wide release this weekend at the box office and they are: Mark Wahlberg’s true-life disaster pic Deepwater Horizon, Tim Burton’s YA fantasy Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, oft delayed Zach Galifianakis/Kristin Wiig comedy Masterminds, and Disney’s Ugandan chess prodigy tale Queen of Katwe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/21/deepwater-horizon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/21/miss-peregrines-home-for-peculiar-children-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/21/masterminds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/23/queen-of-katwe-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Deepwater Horizon should top Peregrine for the top spot. Both have the chance to debut higher than my predictions, but the trend over the last couple of weeks has been titles under performing and not over performing. If Magnificent Seven loses close to half its opening weekend audience, it should be third with Storks at the four spot (it should experience the smallest decline of holdovers).

My estimates for Masterminds and Queen of Katwe put them in the sixth and seventh positions with Sully holding on for another week in the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my projections for the newcomers:

Deepwater Horizon – 45% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 17% Too High

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – 69% Too Low, 16% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Masterminds – 54% Just About Right, 46% Too Low, 0% Too High

Queen of Katwe – 50% Just About Right, 38% Too Low, 12% Too High

And with that, a top 7 predictions for this weekend:

1. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $24.7 million

2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for the Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

3. The Magnificent Seven

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Storks

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Sully

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

6. Masterminds

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. Queen of Katwe

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (September 23-25)

As expected, The Magnificent Seven remake with Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt easily topped the charts, though it did come in towards the bottom end of most expectations. The Western took in $34.7 million and I went considerably higher with $47.1M. Still, the opening is in line with Washington’s The Equalizer from two years ago.

After the animated talking animal mega-hits that were Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets – perhaps family audiences had their fill as Storks posted a debut on the lowest end of expectations. Despite positive reviews, the Warner Bros release made $21.3 million for second (below my $27.9M projection). Its best hope is for smallish declines in future weekends.

Sully dropped to third after two weeks on top with $13.5 million (under my $14.9M forecast) for a total of $92M.

Last weekend’s newcomers all posted lackluster debuts and they all experienced unimpressive second weekends as well. Bridget Jones’s Baby was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.1M) for a $16M total. Snowden was fifth with $4 million (I said $4.3M) for a $15M tally. Blair Witch dropped to sixth with $4 million as well (I predicted $3.4M) for a $16M overall gross.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…