BridgetJones’sBaby not only marks the return of a long dormant franchise, but also the return of Oscar winner Renee Zellweger, making her first onscreen appearance in six years. It’s been twice that long since her title character has been in multiplexes.
In 2001, BridgetJones’sDiary was a solid hit, opening to $10.7 million and displaying great legs to get to $71 million domestic. It also earned its lead a Best Actress nod. The 2004 sequel, BridgetJones: TheEdgeofReason, didn’t fare as well with a $40 million eventual gross.
Besides Zellweger returning to one of her most well-known roles, Sharon Maguire (director of the original) is also back. Same with Colin Firth and Jim Broadbent. Not returning: Hugh Grant and the love triangle with Bridget and Mr. Firth is instead completed by Patrick Dempsey.
As I see it, the long wait between entries and middling performance of the second entry doesn’t bode too well here. I highly doubt this can reach the $17.8 million accomplished by MyBigFatGreekWedding2 (another long gestating rom com sequel) earlier this year. After all, the predecessor for that one made $241 million.
My prediction is this doesn’t quite reach teens for its box office birth.
Bridget Jones’s Baby opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million
Seventeen years ago, The Blair Witch Project came out of nowhere and turned into a 1999 summertime smash. The found footage horror pic (we can basically thank it for kicking off that craze) was initially shot for a tiny $60,000 and made $140 million domestically and $248 million worldwide. A year later, a quasi-sequel entitled Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 failed to connect with audiences.
This time around, we have a direct sequel to the original and it was shockingly a secret up until a couple of months ago. The director/writer horror team of Adam Wingard and Simon Barrett have been responsible for some critically acclaimed genre titles such as You’re Next and The Guest. Their latest venture was said to be The Woods and there was even a trailer for it. It wasn’t until this summer’s San Diego Comic Con (where it screened to great buzz) that it was revealed as Blair Witch. Like the 1999 pic, the cast is made up of relative or total unknowns.
Backstory explained, let’s get to its box office potential. First things first – scare tactics have been a bright spot at the multiplexes lately. The Conjuring 2 debuted to $40 million. Lights Out surprised many with a $21 million premiere and Don’t Breathe exceeded all expectations with $26 million out of the gate. That bodes well for this.
One potential concern: will younger viewers feel the connection to a franchise that has laid dormant for over a decade and a half? While the original was a moneymaking sensation, reaction to it was actually polarized and that may have contributed to the mediocre returns of the 2000 follow-up.
That said, I still envision Blair Witch reaching mid to high 20s next weekend with strong word of mouth from its screening helping.
Blair Witch opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million
For my Bridget Jones’s Baby prediction, click here:
BLOGGER’S UPDATE (09/09/16): I can no longer ignore the strong signals that Sully will top the box office this weekend. I’m not changing my When the Bough Breaks forecast, but am upping Sully from $19.8M to $28.5M.
The second weekend of September brings us four new entries that will likely perform significantly different. There’s the Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks collaboration Sully, romantic thriller When the Bough Breaks, horror pic The Disappointments Room and Belgian animated export The Wild Life. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, there could be a serious battle for the #1 slot between Bough and Sully. The latter debuted to positive reviews over the weekend (75% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). The former is a critic proof entity that could follow in the footsteps of September 2014’s No Good Deed and September 2015’s The Perfect Guy with grosses in the low to mid 20s. Meanwhile, I have Sully not quite reaching $20M, though it’ll likely have solid legs in subsequent weekends.
For those reasons, I’m giving Bough the edge to reach the top spot this weekend. I have a feeling there may be those who disagree. As for the other newcomers, I’m expecting wildly disappointing results. Neither The Disappointments Room or The Wild Life seem to have any momentum. My $2.3M and $3.2M estimates for them, respectively, leave them outside the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my newcomer predictions:
Sully – 64% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 5% Too High
When the Bough Breaks – 53% Just About Right, 44% Too High, 3% Too Low
The Disappointments Room – 64% Just About Right, 22% Too Low, 14% Too High
The Wild Life – 50% Just About Right, 43% Too Low, 7% Too High
As for holdovers, current two-time champ Don’t Breathe should slip to third with Suicide Squad in fourth. Kubo and Pete’s Dragon are likely to battle for the five spot with similar grosses.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Sully
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
2. When the Bough Breaks
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
3. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)
Box Office Results (September 2-5)
It was a typically sluggish Labor Day weekend as two newcomers failed to connect with audiences. The low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe, on the other hand, continued to impress with $19.7 million (above my $16.7M estimate) for a total of $55 million.
Suicide Squad was second once again with $12.6 million (in line with my $12.9M projection) as it crossed the $300M line.
Kubo and the Two Strings was third with $8.7 million (I said $8M) for a $36M gross. The four and five spots were holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five: Pete’s Dragon with $8.4 million ($66M total) and Sausage Party with $6.4 million ($89M total).
As for the aforementioned newcomers… ouch. Romantic drama The Light Between Oceans was sixth with only $6.1 million (well under my $11.3M prediction).
Sci-fi thriller Morgan fared even worse with just $2.5 million for 18th place… less than a fourth of my generous $10.6M forecast.
And that will do it for now, blog readers! Until next time…
2016 has been a terrific year for animated movies with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets. The love isn’t likely to extend to The Wild Life, opening next weekend. It comes from Belgium and centers on a story involving Robinson Crusoe.
StudioCanal is releasing Life on approximately 2200 screens, so the opportunity is certainly there for family audiences to sign up. Yet this seems to be flying way under the radar and many younger moviegoers and their parents will probably just sit this one out. In fact, this could come in lower than the dismal opening of Ratchet & Clank, which earned just $4.8 million out of the gate in April. I’ll predict it will.
The Wild Life opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
If you haven’t heard much about The Disappointments Room – all I can say is that’s something you share with this blogger. It opens next weekend on approximately 1500 screens and I’ll be damned if I’ve seen a TV spot for it yet. That doesn’t bode well.
It does have some recognizable names and faces behind it. D.J. Caruso, maker of Distrubia, Eagle Eye, and I Am Number Four, directs with Kate Beckinsale, Lucas Till, and Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) among the cast. It’s written by Wentworth Miller, star of TV’s “Prison Break”. Billed as a horror film, maybe it would stand a decent chance at OK box office dollars if anyone knew much about it. After all, the genre has performed quite well in 2016.
However, Rogue Pictures appears to have little confidence in selling it and I’ll predict there’s lot of disappointment in the rooms of their offices come next weekend.
The Disappointments Room opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Screen Gems has quite a profitable enterprise going for the last two years and will try to keep it up for a third with When the Bough Breaks, opening next weekend. The thriller stars Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Jaz Sinclair and was produced for a mere $13 million.
In 2014, the studio put out the similarly themed No Good Deed. The result was a $24.2 million opening. Last year, it was The Perfect Guy (also featuring Chestnut) and it took in $25.9 million for its start. These romantic potboilers have largely appealed to African-American female audiences over 30 and are pretty much critic proof (Perfect Guy didn’t bother to screen for reviewers).
I don’t see much reason why Bough wouldn’t break out in the same way. In fact, I believe it stands an excellent chance at being #1 next weekend over the Clint Eastwood directed/Tom Hanks starring Sully. A debut in the low to mid 20s looks probable for another Screen Gems cash cow.
When the Bough Breaks opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million
***BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/08/16): I’ve caved on Sully prediction. My $19.8M prediction is clearly too low, so I’m switching to $28.5M.
Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks mark their first collaboration together in Sully, landing in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of Captain “Sully” Sullenberger and his “Miracle on the Hudson” water heroics in 2009 and drama that followed. Costars include Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney.
The film looks to break in adult audiences burnt out on summer blockbusters and having Mr. Hanks in the title role won’t hurt. Looking over his last two wide release starring roles, 2013’s Captain Phillips opened to $25.7 million (I would argue it had more buzz). Last fall’s Bridge of Spies premiered with $15.3 million.
**UPDATED to $28.5M prediction
Even with its familiar and much reported on subject matter, I believe Sully will probably place in between those two efforts. Good reviews and a lack of competition could lift it past that and this is something that could have solid legs with positive word of mouth. I’ll project it gets just under $30M for its start. That would actually give Mr. Eastwood his second highest directorial debut after the massive $89 million that his previous effort (2014’s American Sniper) brought in.
Sully opening weekend prediction: $28.5 million
For my When the Bough Breaks prediction, click here:
The 2016 fall movie kicks off in muted fashion (per usual) with two new entries debuting: sci-fi thriller Morgan and period piece romantic drama The Light Between Oceans. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I’m not expecting either to make much of a splash and I’m predicting Light will just outshine Morgan for the #3 spot. Labor Day weekend has shown in past years that holdovers often don’t lose much of their audience from the previous weekend. In fact, in many cases, its percentage can increase a bit.
This will probably not hold true for current #1 Don’t Breathe, which had a smashing weekend out of the gate (more on that below). Like most horror titles. it should lose a fairly hefty percentage of its opening weekend crowd. Yet it’s likely to remain #1, unless one of the newbies surpasses expectations or Suicide Squad holds even better than forecast. Kubo and the Two Strings likely will round out the top five, though Pete’s Dragon may challenge it for that spot.
As for my blog poll on the two newcomers – 45% believe my Morgan estimate is Just About Right with 39% saying it’s Too High and 16% saying Too Low. With The Light Between Oceans, 40% think it’s Too High, 33% Just About Right, and 27% Too Low.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the holiday weekend that includes Friday to Sunday and Friday to Monday estimates:
1. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $13 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.7 million (Friday to Monday)
2. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.9 million (Friday to Monday)
3. The Light Between Oceans
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)
4. Morgan
Predicted Gross: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $8 million (Friday to Monday)
Box Office Results (August 26-28)
Low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe continued a solid season for the genre with a fantastic $26.4 million debut (over double my meager $12.4M projection). The critically heralded project, with a reported budget of only $9.9 million, opened beyond even the rosiest of expectations, ousting Suicide Squad from its three-week reign at #1.
Squad dropped to second with $12.2 million (a bit ahead of my $10.6M estimate) for a four-week tally of $283M.
Animated Kubo and the Two Strings actually rose a spot to #3 with $7.8 million in its sophomore frame (in line with $7.5M prediction) for a ten day gross of $24M. A much different animated tale, Sausage Party, was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.6M) for a $79M tally.
Opening softly in fifth was the Jason Statham sequel Mechanic: Resurrection with $7.4 million (a bit under my $8.5M forecast).
Following closely behind in sixth was Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, also with $7.4 million (I said $6.6M) for a $54M haul.
War Dogs slipped from third to seventh in its second weekend with $7 million (I said $7.4M) for a $27M overall gross.
Bad Moms continued its impressive run in eight place with $5.5 million (I said $5.4M) for a $95M total. Jason Bourne was ninth with $5.1 million ($4.6M prediction here) for a gross of $149M. Ben-Hur continued its disastrous run in 10th with $4.5 million (a bit below my $5.2M estimate) for a total of only $19M.
There were a pair of limited releases – one that opened OK and the other not so much. Southside with You, dramatizing the first date of first couple Barack and Michelle Obama, managed $2.8 million on 813 screens for 14th place (it’ll expand a bit wider this weekend). Boxing drama Hands of Stone stumbled with just $1.7 million (below my $3.2M projection) on 810 screens for 16th place.
And finally – on this sad day for movie fans – a little of the incomparable Mr. Gene Wilder from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. May he rest in peace.
The Light Between Oceans opens over Labor Day weekend and hopes to bring in a sizable female crowd to combat the typical box office doldrums of this particular holiday weekend. The World War I era romantic drama stars Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender and Oscar winners Alicia Vikander and Rachel Weisz. Based on a 2012 novel by M.L. Stedman, it’s directed by Derek Cianfrance, best known for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines.
Light‘s best hope at audience exposure should be if reviews are strong and it generates any Oscar buzz. This is an unknown at press time. That said, films that premiere over Labor Day typically have a tough time breaking out (this is a traditionally very slow time at multiplexes). I’ll predict Oceans manages to just break double digits over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a couple million added for the Monday extension of the holiday frame.
The Light Between Oceans opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)
The science fiction thriller Morgan hits theaters over Labor Day weekend. Directed by Luke Scott – scion of Ridley (you know, the guy who made Alien and Blade Runner) – the pic centers on a young girl who’s developed in a lab and obtains super human qualities. When she starts to cause trouble, all sorts of “stranger things” (so to speak) begin happening.
Ridley executive produces his son’s first feature and the cast features Kate Mara, Anya Taylor-Joy, Toby Jones, Rose Leslie, Boyd Holbrook, Michelle Yeoh, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Paul Giamatti. This is unlikely to make an impression with audiences like the aforementioned classics of the elder Scott’s resume.
Morgan is debuting on the holiday weekend least known for producing hits. This is a historically slow time at the box office where newbies often struggle to achieve anything above low double digits. I believe that will hold true here with a four-day haul reaching just that.
Morgan opening weekend prediction: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Light Between Oceans prediction, click here:
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