Next weekend, the horror thriller TheBelkoExperiment debuts in theaters and it will attempt to serve as counter programming to Disney’s likely box office behemoth BeautyandtheBeast. That could be an uphill battle.
Belko comes from director Greg McLean, who last helmed 2016’s underwhelming performer TheDarkness. Its screenwriter is of more note – James Gunn, who directed GuardiansoftheGalaxy and its upcoming May sequel. The pic is set in Bogota, Columbia with a group of employees pitted against one another in a violent social experiment. Stars include John Gallagher Jr., Tony Goldwyn, Adria Arjona, John C. McGinley, and Michael Rooker.
This debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to so-so buzz and it currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been rather soft and it’s only slated to open on about 1200 screens.
Add that up and I believe Belko will debut poorly and fade quickly.
TheBelkoExperiment opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast arrives in theaters next weekend and it looks poised for quite a fantastic opening. Bill Condon serves behind the camera (he directed the last two Twilight installments recently) with Emma Watson as Belle and Dan Stevens as the Beast. Costars include Luke Evans, Kevin Kline, Josh Gad, Ian McKellen, Ewan McGregor, Stanley Tucci, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, and Emma Thompson.
The Mouse Factory has had tremendous success with their reboots of their classic animated tales. 2014’s Maleficent took in $241 million stateside. The following year, Cinderella cleared $200 million. Last year’s The Jungle Book scored even more impressively with $364 million.
Beauty stands a great shot at outdoing them all. For starters, the 1991 original is beloved (it was the first animated feature to nab a Best Picture nomination). The Disney marketing machine has been in high gear and turnout among youngsters and females in particular should be substantial. Reviews (while not gushing) have been solid and it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is little doubt that this will post 2017’s largest opening so far. Just how high can it go? I am predicting it will achieve one of the top ten domestic premieres of all time. My estimate puts it at #10, right in between The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight for a truly beast mode roll out.
Beauty and the Beast opening weekend prediction: $158.8 million
For my The Belko Experiment prediction, click here:
Warner Bros is hoping audiences will want to go into beast mode this weekend as Kong: Skull Island is unveiled in theaters. It’s the only new wide release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The ape tale should top the box office, but if it comes in below my high 40s forecast, the second weekend of Logan (which opened fantastically this past weekend) could give it a run for its money. I do expect the acclaimed Wolverine tale to dip a bit more than 50%.
Get Out experienced a very small decline in its sophomore frame and should continue its terrific run in third place. The Shack was a hit with faith based crowds and I have it with a smallish decline in its second weekend with The Lego Batman Movie dropping to fifth.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. Logan
Predicted Gross: $42.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 30%)
4. The Shack
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (March 3-5)
Logan, with its terrific reviews and buzz from being Hugh Jackman’s final appearance in his signature role, posted a sizzling $88.4 million debut. That’s the third highest X-Men opening of the nine pictures of the franchise. It came in at the most optimistic level of expectations and blew away my meager $68.6M forecast.
The other story of the week: the remarkable hold of Get Out, which dipped only 15% and earned $28.2 million in weekend two (besting my $20M prediction). Its ten day total is at $78 million – or over 15 times its budget to put it in perspective.
Oh… and the third story of the weekend was the robust third place premiere of The Shack. It earned a sturdy $16.1 million, outshining my $9.7M estimate.
The Lego Batman Movie dipped to fourth with $11.7 million, in line with my $11.1M prognosis for a total of $148M. John Wick: Chapter 2 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $5.6M) to brings its tally to $82M.
Debuting quietly in sixth was YA thriller Before I Fall with just $4.6 million, a tad under my $5.3M estimate.
The most famous ape in movie history in back on screen for the first time in over a decade when Kong: SkullIsland debuts next weekend. With a reported $190 million budget, Warner Bros. is hoping to keep their monster franchise reaping big grosses as they move toward a planned Godzilla/Kong pic.
Jordan Vogt-Roberts directs and he’s certainly an interesting choice as his only feature was the low-budget indie TheKingsofSummer in 2013. The director may not be high-profile, but the cast is. Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman, John C. Reilly, Jing Tian, Toby Kebbell, Corey Hawkins, and Jason Mitchell headline. Even with those recognizable names, the real star is that giant CG creature that first graced the screen almost 85 years ago.
Kong is not expected to match the earnings of the Godzilla reboot three years ago. It had a plum summer release date and made over $90 million out of the gate. Competition from the second weekend of the acclaimed Logan could also hinder this a bit.
I expect this will hover right above or below $50 million and word of mouth will determine how it goes from there.
Kong: SkullIsland opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
The month of March at the box office claws its way into theaters with three new releases premiering. They are: Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine in Logan, faith-based drama The Shack, and teen thriller Before I Fall. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Logan, with some of the greatest reviews of the X-Men franchise, should easily top the charts. It’s worth noting that my mid-60s forecast is a bit lower than some others. We shall see.
I’m expecting sub double digit openings for the other two newcomers, with The Shack landing in fourth and Before I Fall in sixth.
Critically lauded horror pic Get Out had a spectacular opening (more on that below) and I expect a rather small sophomore decline. It should have no trouble placing second. That leaves other holdovers The Lego Batman Movie in third and John Wick: Chapter 2 at fifth.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Logan
Predicted Gross: $68.6 million
2. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $20 million (representing a drop of 40%)
3. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. The Shack
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
6. Before I Fall
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (February 24-26)
With its red hot buzz and perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, Jordan Peele’s Get Out got off to a scorching start with a $33.3 million opening – blazing past my meager $16.3M prediction. With a budget of reportedly under $5 million, this is a massively profitable venture for Blumhouse.
The Lego Batman Movie slipped to second to $19.2 million, a bit shy of my $22.1M projection for a three week total of $133M.
John Wick: Chapter 2 was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.4M forecast for a $74M overall gross. The Great Wall was fourth in its second weekend with $9.1 million (I said $8.2M) for a lackluster tally of $34M. Fifty Shades Darker rounded out the top five with $7.7 million in weekend #3, under my $9.9M prediction. Its total is at $103M.
Two other newcomers failed to make any impression with moviegoers. The animated Rock Dog was 11th with $3.7 million, in line with my $4.4M prediction. Action thriller Collide was DOA in 13th with $1.5 million, not even my matching my $2.1M estimate.
Looking for the teen dramatic thriller version of GroundhogDay? It appears you can find it next weekend when BeforeIFall debuts. Based on a 2010 YA bestseller by Lauren Oliver, the pic centers on a teen (Zoey Deutch) living the final day of her life repeatedly. Costars include Halston Sage, Logan Miller, and Jennifer Beals (yep, the star of Flashdance!).
Fall premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to some positive reviews and it sits at 64% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, the Open Roads release isn’t expected to rise much with audiences. The marketing campaign has been rather low key and I suspect a mid to possibly high single digits opening is the probable result.
BeforeIFall opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million
Next weekend, the faith-based drama The Shack hits theaters. Based on a bestselling 2007 novel by William P. Young, it hopes to lure in Christian audiences who have made various pictures exceed their opening weekend expectations.
Sam Worthington, Octavia Spencer, Radha Mitchell, Alice Braga, and Tim McGraw are among the cast headlining this tale of a man experiencing a crisis of faith after his young daughter is murdered.
Movies of this genre are often tough to predict and, as mentioned, they can often surprise with more than anticipated numbers. Solid word of mouth could allow this to have legs in subsequent weekends. I’ll predict a high single digits debut is likely.
The Shack opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
After nearly 17 years playing the most popular cinematic character in the X-Men universe, Hugh Jackman is Wolverine for reportedly the final time in Logan, out next weekend. This is the third stand-alone feature focused on Jackman’s character following 2009’s X–MenOrigins: Wolverine and 2013’s TheWolverine. Like the 2013 entry, it’s directed by James Mangold. Patrick Stewart appears here as Professor X and other supporting players include Boyd Holbrook and Richard E. Grant.
One thing is for certain: Logan is receiving easily the best reviews of the trio and it currently sits at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a considerable upgrade of the 38% of Origins and 69% of TheWolverine. On the flip side, the franchise as a whole suffered a minor setback when last summer’s X–Men: Apocalypse was the second lowest grosser of the six X pics, with only X–Men: FirstClass earning less.
Let us take a further trip down stand-alone lane, shall we? Origins made $85 million for its start in summer ’09 with an overall $179M haul. Four years later, TheWolverine managed a $53 million opening weekend with $132M overall.
So where does Logan land? The solid reviews should help (something Apocalypse didn’t have). So should the report that it’s Jackman’s swan song. It should land higher than TheWolverine, but not achieve what Origins accomplished (it was the first X flick to open after franchise highest grosser TheLastStand).
It’s a weekend where the bulk of movie lovers attention may be focused on Sunday’s Oscar ceremony and not what’s playing in the multiplex itself. There are three releases going wide: Jordan Peele’s race themed horror pic Get Out, animated musical comedy Rock Dog, and Felicity Jones led action thriller Collide. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each of them here:
The real question in this last weekend of February, as I see it, is how the critically acclaimed Get Out performs. I have it in the mid teens, which almost certainly means a second place showing to The Lego Batman Movie in its third frame. However, the horror flick certainly has breakout potential and could go higher (61% of my blog readers believe my estimate is too low).
Both Rock Dog and Collide appear headed for dismal showings. My respective predictions of $4.4 million and $2.1 million have them outside of the top five.
And with that, the top 5 predictions for what should be a rather slow weekend:
1. The Lego Batman Movie
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. Fifty Shades Darker
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of $51%)
4. John Wick: Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. The Great Wall
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (February 17-20)
It was a rather ho-hum Presidents Day Weekend as three newcomers all failed to connect with audiences. The Lego Batman Movie easily maintained the top spot with $42.7 million over the four-day holiday, under my $49.4M estimate. Its total has built up to $107M.
Fifty Shades Darker stayed in second with $22.6 million, in line with my $21.3M prognosis for an overall $91M gross.
Matt Damon’s expensive action epic The Great Wall debuted at a disappointing third with $21.5 million, shy of my $25.6M prediction. With mediocre reviews, look for it to crumble quickly.
John Wick: Chapter 2 was fourth with $18.9 million (I said $21.5M) for a two-week tally of $61M.
The Ice Cube/Charlie Day Fist Fight was punched out by audiences with only a $14.1 opening in fifth, well under my generous $25.1M guesstimate.
Finally, the Gore Verbinski directed A Cure for Wellness was DOA in 11th place with just $5 million (less than half my $10.2M forecast).
Action thriller Collide, out next weekend, was filmed nearly three years ago and has collected dust on the stateside shelf. It was scheduled to be released domestically nearly a year and a half ago back before Relativity Media filed for bankruptcy.
On the plus side, at least one of the actors in it has become considerably more famous since. Felicity Jones is among the cast and her profile has gone up immensely since Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. It shouldn’t matter much. Other stars include Nicholas Hoult, Anthony Hopkins, Ben Kingsley, and Marwan Kenzari.
The bank heist flick has received very limited promotion and it looks like it’s essentially being dumped into an uninterested marketplace. I believe Collide may not even reach $3 million and be On Demand your viewing pleasure quite soon.
