Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: November 18-20

It’s another busy weekend at the box office as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to dominate the charts with three other newbies debuting. They are: coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen, Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and boxing biopic Bleed for This. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the newest adaptation from a J.K. Rowling work should easily place first (just like the Potter pics) and I’ve got it pegged for a mid 80s premiere (if it went higher, that wouldn’t shock me).

Holdover blockbusters Doctor Strange and Trolls should drop to second and third with Arrival possibly battling it out with newcomers Seventeen and Walk for the 4-6 positions. As for Bleed, it should be outside the top 6 and I’ve got it pegged at just $5.8M (though it could be a potential sleeper).

As for where the blog readers stand on my predictions for the newbies:

Fantastic Beasts: 60% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 9% Too High

The Edge of Seventeen: 44% Just About Right, 39% Too Low, 17% Too High

Billy Lynn: 47% Too High, 37% Just About Right, 16% Too Low

Bleed for This: 57% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 7% Too High

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Predicted Gross: $83.1 million

2. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Edge of Seventeen

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (November 11-13)

In a robust weekend, holdovers held over very well and some newcomers had solid results (with one exception).

Marvel’s Doctor Strange retained the #1 spot in its sophomore frame with a $42.9 million gross (ahead of my $37.5M projection) to bring its ten-day total to $152M.

The news was also great in weekend #2 for Dreamworks animated Trolls as it grossed $34.9 million in second (more than my $26.8M estimate) for a hair raising $93M total.

Critically acclaimed sci-fi drama Arrival had a fine third place showing – arriving with $24 million (just above my $22.4M prediction). While audiences were a bit more mixed than reviewers, it could settle in for fairly small drops in future weekends and manage to top $100M.

Fourth place saw Almost Christmas deliver a pleasing $15.1 million (though not matching my $18.3M forecast).

Rounding out the top five was Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, holding nicely in its second weekend with $10.6 million (I said $8.9M). The lauded WWII drama has taken in $32M thus far.

The dud of the weekend was the Naomi Watts horror thriller Shut In, which managed just $3.5 million for 8th place. I predicted a bit higher with $5.7M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Bleed for This Box Office Prediction

We’ve seen a number of films about the sweet science over the past few years and another one hits theaters next weekend as Bleed for This debuts. The true story tells the tale of pugilist Vinny Pazienza (Miles Teller), who looks to return to the ring after a debilitating accident. Ben Younger, who directed 2000’s well-regarded Boiler Room, followed it up with the less regarded Uma Thurman/Meryl Streep rom com Prime, and hadn’t made a movie since – is behind the camera. Costars include Aaron Eckhart, Ciaran Hinds, Katey Sagal, and Ted Levine.

Bleed debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in September to generally positive reaction. It’s at 77% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The boxing genre has seen some successes this decade with titles such as The Fighter and Creed. On the other hand, Southpaw and especially August’s Hands of Stone struggled.

This one could face an uphill battle. Luckily for its studio, it comes with a light $6 million budget so a knockout gross isn’t really required. I anticipate a middle single digits start.

Bleed for This opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

For my Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

For my The Edge of Seventeen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

The Edge of Seventeen Box Office Prediction

Hailee Steinfeld first broke onto the film scene as a young teen in the Coen Brothers hit Western remake True Grit. The result? An Oscar nomination for Supporting Actress. Since then, she’s made a few screen appearances and also become a platinum selling musician.

Next weekend, she’s said to have yet another breakout role headlining The Edge of Seventeen, a coming of age comedic drama. The pic debuted to highly positive reviews at the Toronto Film Festival and is at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kelly Fremon Craig directs and costars include Haley Lu Richardson, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson, and Kyra Sedgwick.

How it will fare at the multiplexes? Perhaps solid buzz could keep it going well in subsequent weekends, but I’m not anticipating anything above a low teens opening as the higher bar. For one thing, this is going for a teen audience who may well be preoccupied with Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them.

I’ll predict Seventeen hits low double digits for its start.

The Edge of Seventeen opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

For my Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

For my Bleed for This prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk Box Office Prediction

Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk makes its way to theaters next weekend in wide release and expectations for it have been tampered down a bit. The film, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, had been looked at as a major awards contender for the bulk of 2016. After all, Lee has won the Best Director prize at the Oscars twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and it just looked the kind of picture that the Academy might take a liking to. Newcomer Joe Alwyn stars in the title role alongside a stellar supporting cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin.

Walk has also received significant publicity to the manner in which it was shot at 120 frames per second (translate that to very high definition). Yet something unexpected happened when this screened at the New York Film Festival nearly a month ago. Critics were sharply divided as to both its dramatic and visual quality. In fact, it stands at just 50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Any chances of it being an Oscar force pretty much fell along the wayside.

So where does that leave its box office prospects? Quite simply, shakier than before the buzz unfolded. If this had the aura of an Academy hopeful, it could certainly boost its grosses. Then there’s even the matter of another more critically lauded war drama having opened just two weeks prior – Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge.

The film is reportedly rolling out on a low 800 screens which would limits its prospects. Add all that up and I believe Halftime will see a debut below $10 million for just a so-so start.

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million

For my Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

For my Bleed for This prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

For my The Edge of Seventeen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

 

Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them Box Office Prediction

The wildly popular fantasy world created by J.K. Rowling is back in theaters for the first time in five years as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them debuts next weekend. Based on a novel by the Harry Potter author, Beasts looks to create a new franchise for Warner Bros after that aforementioned wizard yielded the studio $2.3 billion dollars for the previous one. David Yates directs and he knows this universe well after making the last four Potter installments. Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne stars with a supporting cast that includes Katherine Waterston, Dan Fogler, Colin Farrell, Carmen Ejogo, Samantha Morton, Ezra Miller, Ron Perlman, and Jon Voight.

The reported $225 million production is intended as the first in a five-part series and it’s safe to say there’s a lot riding on this one. Seven of the eight Potter pics reside in the top 100 domestic earners of all time and even the lowest grossing one (Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban) made just under $250M.

So where does this first entry in a budding new franchise land? I don’t believe it’ll quite reach the $90 million that first Potter experience The Sorcerer’s Stone opened at 15 years ago. That said, a gross in low to mid $80s range out of the gate seems quite probable. I’ll predict it’ll do just that and we can expect to see plenty more wizards and muggles coming our way in the near future.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opening weekend prediction: $83.1 million

For my Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

For my Bleed for This prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

For my The Edge of Seventeen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 11-13

Three more titles make their way to the big screen this weekend as the critically lauded sci-fi pic Arrival, holiday dramedy Almost Christmas, and Naomi Watts led horror thriller Shut In debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/

After the massive opening of Marvel’s Doctor Strange, it appears unlikely that any of the newbies will prevent it from a second weekend atop the charts (unless Arrival majorly over performs). Benedict Cumberbatch and company should drop in the mid 50s, which should be more than good enough for box office domination.

The real battle could be for the #2 spot as Trolls may not even lose 40% of its audience from its impressive premiere. That could leave it and Arrival in close range for runner-up status. However, the somewhat low 2200 screen count for the Amy Adams tale could push its gross to low to mid 20s.

I’m expecting Almost Christmas will have a merry 4th place debut in the high teens with Hacksaw Ridge rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

My meager Shut In prediction at $5.7 million leaves it outside the top 5 and likely in the 6th spot.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my opening weekend takes on the newbies:

Arrival – 41% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 24% Too High

Almost Christmas – 46% Just About Right, 31% Too Low, 23% Too High

Shut In – 60% Just About Right, 40% Too Low, 0% Too High

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the busy weekend ahead:

1. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $37.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

3. Arrival

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

4. Almost Christmas

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million

5. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (November 4-6)

As predicted, Doctor Strange posted the 10th highest debut (out of 14) of the Marvel Cinematic Universe thus far, though it managed to top my estimate. The well-reviewed superhero origin tale brought in a terrific $85 million compared to my $77.3M prognosis for what is surely another franchise for the studio.

Dreamworks Animation has reason to smile as Trolls also exceeded expectations to the tune of $46.5 million (ahead of my $34.6M estimate) for a hair raising second place debut. Look for this to play well throughout the month and reach an eventual domestic gross close to $150M.

And the third newcomer of the weekend also performed solidly as Mel Gibson’s acclaimed war drama Hacksaw Ridge made $15.1 million (outpacing my $12.1M projection). The pic stands a good chance of playing well throughout awards season.

After two weeks unexpectedly at #1, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween fell to fourth with $7.7 million. My prediction? $7.7M! It’s earned $64M total.

Inferno continued to its ice cold performance in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $6.8M) to bring its tally to just $25M.

And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Shut In Box Office Prediction

Naomi Watts makes a return to a genre that served her well years ago when Shut In opens next weekend. The horror/thriller places the actress stranded in her home during a blizzard with some potentially unwelcome visitors. Other cast members include Oliver Platt, Charlie Heaton, and Jacob Tremblay (who made waves last year as the child actor in the acclaimed Room).

Of course, the aforementioned title I was referring to with Watts is 2002’s The Ring, which turned into a smash hit. Don’t look for history to repeat itself here. Shut In has had a muted marketing campaign and it’s been pushed back by its distributor several times (it was originally slated to open in February).

Add all that up and I see a pretty bad debut, even factoring in that horror has had a solid 2016. I believe a mid single digits roll out is where Shut In will end up.

Shut In opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Arrival prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

For my Almost Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

Almost Christmas Box Office Prediction

Next weekend comes the first Christmas themed title as Almost Christmas presents itself in theaters. The pic comes from director David E. Talbert, maker of 2008’s First Sunday and 2013’s Baggage Claim. The comedic drama focuses on a dysfunctional holiday family gathering with a cast that includes Kimberly Elise, Mo’Nique, Gabrielle Union, Danny Glover, Jessie Usher, Danny Glover, Nicole Ari Parker, Omar Epps, John Michael Higgins, and Romany Malco.

Christmas should benefit from both its release date and the fact that it could attract a sizable African American audience. One decent comp would be 2007’s This Christmas, which debuted to $17.9 million. A more unlikely comp would be 2013’s The Best Man Holiday, which shocked the industry with an opening of over $30M.

I’ll say Almost Christmas manages a merry start in the high teens range.

Almost Christmas opening weekend prediction: $18.3 million

For my Arrival prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/arrival-box-office-prediction/

For my Shut In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/

Arrival Box Office Prediction

Denis Villeneueve’s science fiction drama and potential Oscar contender Arrival lands in theaters next weekend, looking for a healthy run throughout the awards season. Amy Adams headlines a cast that includes Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker, and Michael Stuhlbarg. Villeneueve has been on a roll (especially critically) in recent years with well-regarded titles such as Prisoners and last year’s Sicario.

With a relatively modest $50 million reported budget, Arrival debuted at the Venice Film Festival to many raves and it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could find itself in the mix at the Academy Awards for Best Picture, Director, and Actress with Ms. Adams.

What could hinder Arrival from a huge debut is a relative lack of star power. While Adams and Renner are certainly recognizable names, they don’t carry the box office potency of Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in Gravity ($55 million opening  in 2013), Matthew McConaughey and director Christopher Nolan in Interstellar ($47 million in 2014), and Matt Damon and director Ridley Scott in The Martian ($54 million last autumn). Those similar genre pics premiered in a realm that looks to be unrealistic for this.

Arrival could manage to top $30 million out of the gate, but a relatively low screen count of 2200 screens should prevent that. I’ll say a low to mid 20s debut is more probable as it looks to play well in subsequent weekends based on buzz.

Arrival opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million

For my Almost Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

For my Shut In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 4-6

The month of November begins at the box office with the infusion of some likely blockbusters to lift the current fall season out of its doldrums. We have three new pics that should populate the top 3 spots: Marvel’s critically acclaimed Doctor Strange, Dreamworks animated Trolls, and Mel Gibson’s World War II drama Hacksaw Ridge. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/25/doctor-strange-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/trolls-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/26/hacksaw-ridge-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that Disney/Marvel will rule the weekend with their new superhero. The question is just how big it will be. My estimate gives it the 10th out of 14th largest opener for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, between Thor: The Dark World and the first Thor. 

While Strange should hammer all competition, I’ve got those frizzy haired Trolls capturing a sizable family audience for a sturdy runner-up showing.

As for Hacksaw, the well-reviewed pic could over perform, but I’ve got it slated for a low double digits debut (though it may play well throughout awards season).

When it comes to holdovers, I look for Boo! A Madea Halloween and Inferno (which bombed this past weekend; more on that below) to experience sizable dips and fall to fourth and fifth.

Here’s how the blog readers feel about my prognoses:

Doctor Strange – 47% Just About Right, 36% Too Low, 17% Too High

Trolls – 55% Just About Right, 26% Too Low, 19% Too High

Hacksaw Ridge – 65% Too Low, 27% Just About Right, 8% Too High

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Doctor Strange

Predicted Gross: $77.3 million

2. Trolls

Predicted Gross: $34.6 million

3. Hacksaw Ridge

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Inferno

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (October 28-30)

In a seriously surprising box office upset, Boo! A Madea Halloween remained atop the charts for a second weekend in a row with $17.2 million, well ahead of my $12.7M projection. The Tyler Perry hit has amassed $52 million so far and looks to easily become the 2nd highest grossing Madea titled pic after 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail.

The upset is due to the massive under performance of Inferno, the third teaming of Tom Hanks and Ron Howard based on Dan Brown’s novels. The film absolutely tanked with just $14.8 million, less than half of my extremely generous $30.6M prediction. This franchise started a decade ago to great results with The Da Vinci Code and still produced decent results in 2011 with Angels & Demons. While Inferno is performing better overseas, you can bet this is the last time we’ll see Mr. Hanks cracking codes.

In another Tom led box office disappointment, Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back fell hard in weekend #2 with $9.5 million (I was higher with a $12.4M forecast). Its meager earnings stand at $39 million.

I fared a bit better with the rest of the top five. The Accountant was fourth with $8.4 million (I said $8.7M) for a $61 million total. Ouija: Origin of Evil was fifth with $7.1 million (I said $7.3M) for a $24 million tally.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…