Call it Grumpy Old Thieves as Going in Style debuts at the box office next weekend. The pic is actually a remake of a 1979 caper comedy with George Burns and Art Carney about some old men cheated out of their pensions who exact the revenge. Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, and Alan Arkin are the headliners with Zach Braff directing. Costars include Joey King, Ann-Margret, Christopher Lloyd, Kenan Thompson, and Matt Dillon. Theodore Melfi, who recently directed Hidden Figures, is the screenwriter.
Style could work reasonably well as a pleasant diversion for older moviegoers. The box office has been dominated by family fare as of late and comedies have been in rather short supply (CHiPs didn’t exactly set the multiplex on fire).
There’s a possibility that this could put up similar numbers to Last Vegas, which premiered to $16 million. That’s on the higher end of expectations. I believe a more likely scenario is $10-$13 million with the hope from Warner Bros that word of mouth is solid and it does well in subsequent weekends.
Going in Style opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million
For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:
Columbia Pictures hopes that moviegoers have the blues in a good way next weekend when Smurfs: The Lost Village debuts. This is the third pic in the franchise based on the 1980s cartoon and the studio has made a change-up. While 2011’s The Smurfs and its 2013 sequel were a mix of live-action and animation, The Lost Village cuts the human aspect and is of the fully drawn variety. That means Neil Patrick Harris and Hank Azaria are nowhere to be seen, unlike the first two.
Voice over work is provided by familiar faces that include Demi Lovato, Rainn Wilson, Joe Manganiello, Mandy Patinkin, Michelle Rodgriguez, Jack McBrayer, Ellie Kemper, Danny Pudi, Ariel Winter, and Julia Roberts. Kelly Asbury, who handled directorial duties on Shrek 2, is behind the camera.
The 2011 Smurfs was a hit, opening to $35 million with an eventual $142M domestic haul. Part two did not fare as well, premiering to $17 million and $71M overall.
Competition for family audiences is considerable. Beauty and the Beast will still be bringing in the bucks in weekend #4, Powers Rangers will be in its third frame, and The Boss Baby will be entering its sophomore weekend.
That said, I expect The Lost Village to outdo what the second movie did out of the gate. I anticipate an opening in the high teens to low 20s. That likely means a third place showing behind Baby and Beauty. Whether or not that’s enough to push forward with planned sequel Smurf & Turf (in which the characters become embroiled in a vicious gangland war) remains to be seen.
Smurfs: The Lost Village opening weekend prediction: $20.4 million
It’s been a robust March at the box office and it closes out with the wide release of two new offerings: sci-fi action pic Ghost in the Shell with Scarlett Johansson and Dreamworks animated feature The Boss Baby. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I foresee a close race between the newbies, giving Shell a slight edge. Neither is likely to unseat Disney juggernaut Beauty and the Beast from a third week atop the charts. Power Rangers should drop to fourth in its sophomore frame after a solid opening and I look for it to lose about 50% of its premiere audience. Kong: Skull Island should round out the top five.
Finally, The Zookeeper’s Wife with Jessica Chastain opens on approximately 450 screens at press time. Its reviews have been just so-so (58% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). I didn’t do an individual estimate post for it, but I’ll say $2.1 million, which probably puts it in 11th place.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $48.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
2. Ghost in the Shell
Predicted Gross: $30.3 million
3. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $28.6 million
4. Power Rangers
Predicted Gross: $20.1 million (representing a drop of 50%)
5. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (March 24-26)
Beauty and the Beast continued its amazing run with $90.4 million in weekend #2, besting my $82.5M forecast. The Disney smash achieved the fourth highest second weekend in box office history and brought its total to $319M.
Power Rangers had a sturdy runner-up debut with $40.3 million, powering past my $33.8M projection. That number bodes well for potential sequels in this reboot of a franchise popularized in the 1990s.
Kong: Skull Island was third with $14.6 million compared to my $12.6M prediction. It’s made $133M in three weeks.
Space thriller Life starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Ryan Reynolds opened in fourth with a disappointing $12.5 million, below my $19.1M estimate. A host of similarly themed and better reviewed titles in recent years probably didn’t bode well for this in the long run.
Logan was fifth at $10.3 million (I said $9M) for a $201M tally. Its overall gross puts Logan as standing a solid shot at becoming the highest earning X-Men feature thus far. The record currently belongs to 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand at $234M.
Get Out was sixth with $8.8 million ($147M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top 6.
That’s because CHiPs fell victim to poor reviews and word of mouth, opening in seventh place with just $7.7 million (I said $8.4M).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Next weekend, Alec Baldwin is The Boss Baby in Dreamworks Animation’s latest feature. Based on a 2010 childrens book, the pic has the SNL hosting record setter voicing a wiser than his years infant. Other voice over work is provided by Tobey Maguire, Steve Buscemi, Jimmy Kimmel, and Lisa Kudrow.
Baby arrives in the midst of a number of titles catering to younger audiences and their families. Beauty and the Beast will be in its third weekend and still posting large earnings. Power Rangers will be in its sophomore frame and Smurfs: The Lost Village will debut the weekend after.
Reviews haven’t been strong so far with just a 27% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, Baldwin has surely been visible as of late with his President Trump impression and Dreamworks has a mostly impressive track record in their animated division.
The competition is likely to be a factor keeping this from truly significant grosses, but I’ll still estimate Baby manages a high 20s to possibly low 30s birth.
The Boss Baby opening weekend prediction: $28.6 million
Scarlett Johansson is back in action mode next weekend when GhostintheShell debuts. Based on a popular Japanese anime property that produced an acclaimed 1995 feature, the science fiction crime thriller looks to challenge the third weekend of BeautyandtheBeast for box office supremacy. However, it’s likely to fall quite a bit short with an opening that should still be pretty decent.
Rupert Sanders directs with a supporting cast that includes Takeshi Kitano, Michael Pitt, and Juliette Binoche. The draw beyond the genre’s fanboys is surely Miss Scarlett, who’s proven herself to be a hot commodity in action pics. This applies, of course, to her work in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Yet she also turned 2014’s Lucy into a major hit without the assistance of superheroes. That film debuted to $43 million. I expect Shell to fall at least $10 million short of that in what could be a close race for #2 with The Boss Baby.
GhostintheShell opening weekend prediction: $30.3 million
**Blogger’s Note (03/23): I am revising my CHiPs estimate down to $8.4 million based on lowered expectations and putrid reviews. That puts it in sixth place.
The moneymaking month of March rolls along at the box office as three new titles hit the marketplace. They are: reboot of 90s cartoon and movie series Power Rangers, Jake Gyllenhaal/Ryan Reynolds led outer space thriller Life, and CHiPs, a comedy based on the 70s/80s TV series. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I see Rangers having the most power of the newbies and it should land in second with Life coming in third. As for CHiPs, I see it edging out Kong: Skull Island in its third weekend for the four spot.
One thing seems certain: Beauty and the Beast should continue its monstrous run and dominate the charts once again after its record-setting debut (more on that below). I have Belle and company losing a bit over half its massive premiere audience.
And with that, a top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $82.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Power Rangers
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
3. Life
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
5. Logan
Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 49%)
6. CHiPs
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
Box Office Results (March 17-19)
Beauty and the Beast set the all-time March opening weekend record and the sixth biggest debut of all time with $174.7 million, surpassing my $158.8M prediction. The Disney live-action rendering of their 1991 classic also scored an A Cinemascore grade and looks to dominate the box office easily next weekend before Ghost in the Shell could potentially give it a run for its money in its third frame.
Kong: Skull Island dropped to second with $27.8 million, in range with my $25.6M estimate. The ape tale has amassed $109M in ten days of release.
Logan was third in weekend #3 with $17.8 million. My guess? $17.8M! Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine has garnered $184M thus far.
Get Out was fourth with $13.4 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its terrific tally to $133M.
The Shack rounded out the top five with $6 million (I went with $6.3M) for a $42M total.
Finally, The Belko Experiment landed in seventh place with an OK $4.1 million, slightly ahead of my $3.2M projection.
**Blogger’s Note (03/23): I am revising down my box office estimate to $8.4 million names on putrid reviews and lowered expectations.
A film that has challenged my ability to properly use capital and lower case letters in its title, CHiPs opens in theaters next weekend. The buddy cop comedy is a more humorous take on the 1970s-80s TV series that starred Larry Wilcox and Erik Estrada. Taking over their roles as California highway patrolmen are Dax Shepard (who also directs) and Michael Pena. Costars include Vincent D’Onofrio, Adam Brody, and Shepard’s real-life spouse Kristen Bell.
Warner Bros. originally had this pegged as a late summer release before bumping it to March. I don’t foresee this approaching, say, Starsky and Hutch numbers from 2004. That was also based on a buddy cop series from the same era, but its headliners Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson had considerably more drawing power at the time than Shepard and Pena.
The good news for the studio: CHiPs comes with a reported budget of just $25 million. I believe this vehicle could achieve over half of that in its opening weekend. That would put it behind other newbies Power Rangers and Life, but it’s not too shabby.
CHiPs opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million (prediction changed from $13.2M)
Movies with outer space/alien themes have been quite the hot commodity as of late with blockbusters such as Gravity, Interstellar, The Martian, and Arrival.Next weekend, Daniel Espinosa’s Life will try and join their ranks for what could be an uphill battle.
The pic pits a crew from the International Space Station against an alien creature who may have greater intelligence than they do. Jake Gyllenhaal, Ryan Reynolds, and Rebecca Ferguson headline. This marks director Espinosa’s second collaboration with Reynolds after 2012’s Safe House.
Audiences have certainly had plenty of this type of material in recent years and I’m not sure the trailers and TV spots for Life stand out. It certainly appears unlikely to match the opening weekend grosses of the other genre titles listed above. On the other hand, the participation of Reynolds (hot off Deadpool) won’t hurt and a high teens to mid 20s lift off seems most probable. That should put it firmly in third behind the second weekend of Beauty and the Beast and premiere of Power Rangers.
Lionsgate is hoping that a wave of 90s nostalgia will propel Power Rangers to powerful grosses when it debuts next weekend. The reported $105 million product is a reboot of the popular kids cartoon that spawned two (not very well-regarded) pics in the mid 1990s.
Franchise creator Haim Saban produces this venture with Dean Israelite directing. A cast of relative unknowns (Dacre Montgomery, Naomi Scott, RJ Cyler, Becky G, Ludi Lin) play our young title characters. More familiar faces including Bryan Cranston, Elizabeth Banks, and the voice of Bill Hader are among the supporting cast.
Rangers is banking on capturing the same audience that responded well to the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles refresh recently. Its 2014 return spawned a much more than expected $65 million opening. Last year’s sequel, Out of the Shadows, didn’t measure up with a $35 million premiere.
My instinct is that Power Rangers could certainly over perform, but it will likely reach the mid 30s that Shadows accomplished. I believe those initial Turtles numbers could be unreachable. The earlier Rangers flicks weren’t huge successes. In 1995, Mighty Morphin Power Rangers made $13 million out of the gate with an eventual $38M overall tally. Its spin-off two years later, Turbo: A Power Rangers Movie, was an outright flop with only $8 million total domestically.
Bottom line: I believe the nostalgia factor will come into play and should be enough to make this is a solid second behind the sophomore weekend of Beauty and the Beast.
Power Rangers opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million
Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast looks to dominate the box office this weekend as The Belko Experiment also debuts with what will likely be a soft opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
It should be a fascinating weekend to track as St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Friday and a good portion of the East Coast might be digging out of expected blizzard like conditions. Even with those potential obstacles, I’m still projecting Beast will achieve a monstrous opening that would place it 10th in all-time domestic debuts.
As for Belko, my $3.2 million projection would put it in a weak seventh place.
Regarding holdovers, Kong: Skull Island premiered above expectations (a trend in the month of March) and looks to lose in the mid-high 50s in weekend #2. Logan, Get Out, and The Shack should populate the rest of the top five.
And with that, my projections for the weekend:
1. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $158.8 million
2. Kong: Skull Island
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. Logan
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Get Out
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. The Shack
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (March 10-12)
Kong: SkullIsland exceeded most prognosticators estimates with a robust $61 million, well above my $48.6M prediction. The ape tale was assisted by mostly positive reviews and look for the title character to return vs. Godzilla in three years.
Logan dropped to second in its sophomore weekend with $38.1 million, a bit shy of my $42.5M projection. The acclaimed comic book pic is up to $152M thus far.
GetOut continued its stunning grosses with $20.7 million for third place – on track with my take of $19.8M. It’s up to $110M.
TheShack held nicely in weekend #2 with $10 million (I said $10.7M) for $32M total. TheLegoBatmanMovie rounded out the top five with $7.6 million compared to my $6.8M guesstimate. The domestic total for it is $158M.
