Box Office Predictions: February 26-28

Like last weekend, a trio of newcomers will attempt to unseat the reign of Deadpool at the box office. They are big budget action fantasy Gods of Egypt, Olympic sports tale Eddie the Eagle, and heist thriller Triple 9. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/18/gods-of-egypt-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/18/eddie-the-eagle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/18/triple-9-box-office-prediction/

And like last weekend, I don’t see any of them topping the raunchy Ryan Reynolds superhero megahit. Deadpool should lose about half its audience in weekend #3, allowing it to easily come in first. As for newbies, Gods of Egypt and Eddie the Eagle should manage 2nd and 3rd with Triple 9 competing for a top five showing. Holdovers Kung Fu Panda 3 and Risen may lose between 35-40% of its crowds.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for this weekend:

  1. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $28 million (representing a drop of 50%)

2. Gods of Egypt

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Eddie the Eagle

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. Risen

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

6. Triple 9

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (February 19-21)

As expected, Deadpool continued to rule the charts in its sophomore frame with $56.4 million – in range with my $58.6M estimate. Its two week total stands at an astonishing $236M and, as mentioned above, it should continue its dominance next weekend.

Kung Fu Panda 3 was second with $12.5 million, a bit above my $10.8M projection for a four week haul of $114M.

Biblical drama Risen was the top newcomer in third with $11.8 million, not quite reaching my $14.2M prediction. This is a fair debut and it hopes to experience smallish declines as Easter approaches.

Critically lauded low budget horror pic The Witch debuted in fourth with $8.8 million, ahead of my $6.7M estimate. Considering its reported $1 million budget, this is quite a tidy sum.

Rom com How to Be Single was fifth in its second weekend with $8.2 million, just below my prediction of $9.2M for a two week total of $31M.

Jesse Owens biopic Race had a muted sixth place premiere with $7.3 million, below my $10.6M forecast.

Finally, Ben Stiller’s box office dud of a sequel slipped to seventh with $5.4 million (I said $6.1M) for a total of just $23M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

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