Tag: Box Office Results

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (08/07): My Scary Stories prediction has risen from $10.7 million to $14.3 million

After several weeks of one giant blockbuster hopeful debuting and having the weekend to itself, a quintet of mid tier titles open in this second weekend of August. We have the kid friendly Dora and the Lost City of Gold based on the Nickelodeon series, PG-13 horror flick Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Melissa McCarthy/Tiffany Haddish crime thriller The Kitchen, dog tale The Art of Racing in the Rain, and wrongful imprisonment drama Brian Banks all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Some weekends, it’s fairly easy to project the order of the top five. This isn’t one of them. A couple of things seem highly likely. After a decent start that was still on the bottom end of expectations, Hobbs & Shaw should manage to repeat in first place. I will say a drop of over 50% is where I see it landing in the sophomore frame.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold seems poised to have to biggest premiere of the five newbies. However, my high teens projection puts it in third behind The Lion King.

I have Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, The Kitchen, and The Art of Racing in the Rain all in the high single digits to low double digits range and all behind the third weekend of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

As for Brian Banks, its lack of promotion and lowly 1500 theater count means my $2.3 million prediction means it shouldn’t even compete for the top five.

So on this weekend of multiple new releases, my top seven take:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million

3. Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million

4. Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

6. The Kitchen

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The Art of Racing in the Rain

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (August 2–4)

Fast and Furious spin-off Hobbs & Shaw cruised over holdover competition as anticipated, but it couldn’t match the starting earnings of the last several traditional franchise entries. It took in $60 million, under my take of $72.6 million.

The Lion King was second after two weeks of dominance with $38.5 million, right on pace with my $38.7 million projection. The massive total stands at $431 million.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was third in weekend #2 with $20 million, in line with my $20.7 million prediction. The two week haul is $78 million.

Spider–Man: Far From Home took fourth with $7.9 million (I said $7.1 million) for $360 million overall.

Toy Story 4 rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I was slightly lower with $6.6 million) for a take of $410 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs & Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million

It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs & Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the Fast and Furious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Hobbs & Shaw Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking The Lion King from its two week perch atop the charts.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: Far From Home and Toy Story 4 filling out the top five.

There is a potential wild card this weekend with The Farewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $72.6 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

4. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26–28)

The Lion King, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.

Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.

Spider–Man: Far From Home was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.

Toy Story 4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.

I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.

Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking The Lion King. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/16/once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-box-office-prediction/

I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, Inglourious Basterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.

As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles 2.

Spider–Man: Far From Home looks to be third with Toy Story 4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.

And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:

1. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $86.5 million

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

3. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Yesterday

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (July 19–21)

Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. The Lion King easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 by over $20 million.

Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.

After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: Far From Home slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.

Toy Story 4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.

Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.

Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.

I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as The Lion King stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: Far From Home and Toy Story 4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/09/the-lion-king-box-office-prediction/

The Lion King could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind Black Panther but just ahead of Avengers: Age of Ultron.

Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with Toy Story 4 in third.

Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.

Here’s how I have the top five playing out:

1. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $192.7 million

2. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Crawl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (July 12–14)

The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: Far From Home took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.

Toy Story 4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.

Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.

The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.

Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 12-14 Box Office Predictions

The newcomers this weekend are a bit low key and not your weekly dose of wannabe blockbusters as the alligator horror flick Crawl and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy Stuber debut. Neither have much of a shot of bitIng into the dominance of Spider–Man: Far From Home. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/03/crawl-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/04/stuber-box-office-prediction/

Crawl hopes to snag a sizable portion of moviegoers who have recently feasted on shark tales. I think that’ll equate to low to mid teens and third place.

As for Stuber, its rather generic ad campaign and middling reviews may mean it struggles to hit teens. That likely means fourth place.

After a terrific start, Far From Home should easily hang onto first position. It’s worth noting that predecessor Spider–Man: Homecoming fell a steep 62% in its sophomore outing. While I don’t see this dipping that much, a drop of over 50% seems feasible.

Barring a surprising performance from the fresh players, Toy Story 4 will play in second with Yesterday rounding out the top five.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

3. Crawl

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. Stuber

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Yesterday

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 5–7)

The Marvel Cinematic Universe ruled the long holiday weekend as Spider–Man: Far From Home kept the gravy train rolling for Disney. Since its debut on Tuesday, the sequel has made $185 million. That’s just a tad under my $190.4 million projection. For the Friday to Sunday traditional frame, it made $92.5 million. My estimate? $92.5 million!!!

Toy Story 4 was second at $33.8 million, topping my $28.9 million prediction. In ten days, the Pixar pic crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.

Yesterday displayed a sturdy hold in third with $10 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $36 million.

Annabelle Comes Home was fourth with $9.4 million, a bit more than my $8.1 million take for $49 million overall.

I incorrectly left Aladdin outside the top five, but that’s where it was with $7.5 million. The impressive tally has risen to $320 million.

Finally, acclaimed horror entry Midsommar was sixth with $6.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.9 million since its Wednesday start. That’s below my respective estimates of $7.8 million and $13.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

July 5-7 Box Office Predictions

The box office could use some fireworks this weekend and they should come courtesy of the MCU with tomorrow’s release of Spider–Man: Far From Home. On Wednesday, the critically acclaimed horror pic Midsommar hits the market. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/25/spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/26/midsommar-box-office-prediction/

Spidey will easily dominate the long holiday weekend and I have it slinging nearly $200 million over its six-day rollout with just over $90 million of that coming in the traditional Friday to Sunday frame.

As for Midsommar, I’m a bit more skeptical that a large audience will turn up. I’m putting it at low teens for the five day period with under $10 million for the regular weekend.

Toy Story 4 should relinquish the top spot and fall to second place after two weeks in first. Yesterday, after a healthy start, should continue to ride solid word of mouth and remain in third. That would vault it over Annabelle Comes Home in its sophomore outing and that demented doll sequel is likely to duke it out with Midsommar for fourth place.

And with that, my patriotic forecast for the week ahead:

1. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)

2. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million

3. Yesterday

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Annabelle Comes Home

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Midsommar

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 28–30)

Toy Story 4 played again atop the charts with $59.7 million, in line with my $60.3 million prediction. The Pixar fourquel stands at $238 million after ten days of release.

Annabelle Comes Home opened in second and with a bit less than anticipated. The Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry took in $20.2 million from Friday to Sunday with $31.1 million since the Wednesday start. That’s less than its predecessors, but not too shabby considering the reported $30 million budget. I went higher with respective projections of $27.4 million and $38 million.

Yesterday had a rocking start in third at $17 million, blowing away my $9.1 million forecast. With a sturdy A- CinemaScore grade, I expect this to stick around for a while.

Aladdin reached the triple century mark ($306 million overall) and was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million).

Finally, The Secret Life of Pets 2 held the five spot with $7.3 million compared to my $5.7 million prediction. Total is $131 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Another creepy doll looks to hit the runner-up spot while Toy Story 4 stays in first place this weekend as Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry Annabelle Comes Home debuts. We also have the high concept musical comedy Yesterday out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/18/annabelle-comes-home-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/21/yesterday-box-office-prediction/

It seems awfully risky in the summer of 2019 to project that a sequel will come close to meeting expectations. Not even Toy Story 4 managed to do that (more on that below), but that’s where I’m at by saying Annabelle will gross in the high 20s for its Friday to Sunday earnings and high 30s when taking in the Wednesday and Thursday money.

As mentioned, Pixar’s fourth pairing of Woody and Buzz should have no trouble maintaining top position. Toy Story 3 dipped 46% in its sophomore frame and I look for this to lose around half its volume.

Yesterday, in my view, once had breakout potential. However, so-so reviews don’t help. My estimate for The Beatles themed pic puts it just behind Aladdin in fourth place. The Secret Life of Pets 2 may stay put in fifth as I figure the drops for Child’s Play and Men in Black: International will be more severe.

And with that, my top five for the weekend:

1. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $60.3 million

2. Annabelle Comes Home

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $38 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

4. Yesterday

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

5. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (June 21–23)

Pixar scored yet another hit with Toy Story 4. Yet the acclaimed sequel (arriving nine years after part three) unquestionably made less than anticipated at $120.9 million. While that’s $10 million over its predecessor, that’s a far cry from my $167.5 million forecast. And even if you think I was being generous, the floor for most projections was around $140 million. I wouldn’t feel too bad for Disney as they’re having a terrific year thus far.

The return of Chucky was met with ambivalence as Child’s Play was second with $14 million compared to my $17.6 million prediction. Look for it to fade fast, especially with that other dastardly doll arriving Wednesday. The reboot only cost a reported $10 million to make so United Artists shouldn’t be too upset either.

Aladdin was third with $13.2 million (I said $13 million) and it’s up to $288 million in the coffers.

Men in Black: International tumbled from first to fourth with $10.7 million, below my $13.1 million projection for just $52 million. This reboot, like Dark Phoenix before it, looks to come in under $100 million domestically.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million. I was higher at $12.6 million. The three-week tally is $117 million.

Finally, the Luc Besson action thriller Anna was a flop in ninth with $3.6 million. My prediction? $3.6 million! That almost makes up for being $40 million plus off Toy Story 4! Ok maybe not…

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (06/19): and it’s a significant one. Revising my Toy Story 4 estimate down from $191.5 million to $167.5 million.

It’s a toy fest at the box office this weekend as Pixar’s massive franchise and an iconic demonic doll look to populate the 1-2 spots on the charts. Toy Story 4 and the reboot of Child’s Play are the big debuts, as well as Luc Besson’s action thriller Anna. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/12/toy-story-4-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/13/childs-play-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/13/anna-box-office-prediction/

The question for the fourth iteration of Woody and Buzz is not whether it opens at #1, but whether or not it sets the all-time opening record for an animated feature. Unlike what we’ve seen in the past few weekends, this should not be a sequel that fails to meet expectations. In order to nab the record, it needs to top Pixar’s Incredibles 2 from last summer. That sequel made $182 million out of the gate. I’m predicting Toy Story 4 will outdo it by nearly $10 million.

I’m projecting that Child’s Play will reach high teens and that should be enough to put it in second place. I figure enough horror fans can assist Chucky’s return to multiplexes to get it there (as long as they’re not all holding their money for next week’s Annabelle Comes Home).

The real battle could be for the third position. Men in Black: International was a major flop. While I don’t see it plummeting over 70% like Dark Phoenix, a mid 50s (and maybe a bit more) dip is certainly feasible. That puts it in a horse race with The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Aladdin, which could benefit from drive-in pairings with Toy Story.

As for Anna, my lowly $3.6 million puts it outside the top five.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $167.5 million

2. Child’s Play

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Men in Black: International

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

4. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

Box Office Results (June 14–16)

While Will Smith’s genie in Aladdin is raking up the bucks, Sony was not granted their wish of a successful franchise reboot with Men in Black: International. The film opened in first, but with a disappointing $30 million (on target with my $30.7 million projection). Don’t look for Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson to don the shades again – though you’ll probably see them revise their Thor characters again.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 dropped to second with $24.4 million (I said $23.4 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $92 million after two weeks.

Aladdin was third with $17.3 million, topping my $15.7 million forecast. It’s up to $264 million as it should cross $300 million domestically.

Rocketman was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The Elton John biopic took in $9.4 million and it’s at $52 million overall.

After its poor debut, Dark Phoenix tumbled to fifth with $9.3 million. I was more generous at $11.8 million. With just $52 million in ten days, this looks to be the first X-Men entry that won’t reach $100 million stateside.

The sequel and reboot fatigue manifested itself again with Shaft, which flopped in sixth with only $8.9 million, coming in far below my $16.8 million prediction.

Late Night expanded nationwide to so-so results in ninth place with $5.2 million, a touch more than my $4.5 million take.

Finally, zombie comedy The Dead Don’t Die was 12th on just over 600 screens with $2.5 million compared to my $1.8 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

A variety of new pictures debut or expand this weekend with franchise reboot Men in Black: International, another franchise reboot Shaft, critically appreciated comedy Late Night, and not so critically appreciated comedy The Dead Don’t Die hitting screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/05/men-in-black-international-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/06/shaft-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/09/__trashed/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/09/the-dead-dont-die-box-office-prediction/

With Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson taking over lead roles from Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones, International hopes to bring in a new generation of alien crime fighter aficionados. Yet this could go the way of last weekend’s Dark Phoenix, which set a franchise low for an opening weekend. I predict that a low 30s haul will achieve that dubious mark, but it should have little difficulty hitting #1.

My mid teens estimate for Shaft should put it in third after the sophomore frame of current champ The Secret Life of Pets 2, which itself suffered from an acute case of sequelitis.

The rest of the top five should be filled by holdovers Aladdin and Phoenix, which I anticipate having a severe drop just like Godzilla: King of the Monsters did in its second weekend.

As for Late Night, it had a terrific limited release on just four screens this past weekend, but it could face some difficulties with its 1500 theater release. My $4.5 million forecast puts it outside the top five. Same for The Dead Don’t Die, which I have at $1.8 million at its approximately 550 theater count.

And with that, my top five estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Men in Black: International

Predicted Gross: $30.7 million

2. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

3. Shaft

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

5. Dark Phoenix

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

Box Office Results (June 7–9)

It was not a good weekend to be a sequel as the two newbies placed 1-2, but with significantly less cash than their predecessors. The Secret Life of Pets 2 was first with $46.6 million, well under my estimate of $65.2 million. That’s not even half of the $104 million achieved by its 2016 predecessor and with Toy Story 4 on the horizon, it could fade quickly.

The X-Men franchise cratered as Dark Phoenix was second with $32.8 million compared to my $45.3 million projection. The previous lowest premiere in the series occurred in 2013 when The Wolverine made $53 million out of the gate. This fell more than $20 million under that. Studio Fox didn’t even bother sugarcoating it… it’s a serious flop. New owner Disney will need to figure out a new way to make this series of characters viable into the future.

Aladdin was third with $24.6 million (I said $26.5 million) for a three-week tally of $232 million.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters fell hard in its second frame with $15.4 million, under my $16.9 million prediction. It’s at $78 million.

Rocketman was fifth in its sophomore outing at $13.8 million (I said $14.9 million) for a ten day total of $50 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions

If there’s a theme to this first full June weekend at the box office, it might be sequels not matching up to what’s come before. The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix are the two newbies hitting screens and you can peruse my detailed predictions for each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/29/the-secret-life-of-pets-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/30/dark-phoenix-box-office-prediction/

The original Pets got off to an animated start three summers ago with $104 million. Part 2 is not expected to match it and I’m going with a mid 60s beginning. It should still face no issues topping the charts as the prospects for Dark Phoenix look dim.

It’s the final entry in the current iteration of the X-Men Universe and buzz appears lackluster (especially after the ho-hum reaction to 2016’s X–Men: Apocalypse). My mid 40s take gives it the worst premiere of any X title thus far.

As for holdovers, Godzilla: King of the Monsters was a big disappointment and I anticipate a sophomore decline in the mid 50s range. That could drop it to fourth place with Aladdin in third and Rocketman rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I have the top 5 panning out:

1. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Predicted Gross: $65.2 million

2. Dark Phoenix

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million

3. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $26.5 million

4. Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

5. Rocketman

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

Box Office Results (May 31–June 2)

As mentioned, Godzilla: King of the Monsters landed with a thud with $47.7 million – well below my $58.7 million projection. The reported $200 million dollar production made just over half of what 2014’s Godzilla ($91 million) took in for its start. Additionally it couldn’t reach the heights of 2017’s Kong: Skull Island and its $61 million rollout. The two creatures will face each other next spring in Godzilla vs. Kong.

Aladdin was second with $42.8 million in weekend #2 and held up a bit better than my $40.3 million estimate. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $185 million total.

The Elton John biopic Rocketman had a decent start in third with $25.7 million. I thought it would fly higher at $36.1 million. It’s still a fine opening for an R rated counter programming offering in blockbuster season, though it is just half of what Bohemian Rhapsody accomplished a few short months ago.

Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer was fourth and landed in line with expectations at $18 million (I said $17.2 million). Considering its tiny $5 million price tag, it’s yet another profitable success for the studio.

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum was fifth with $11 million (I went with $12.7 million) as it brought its earnings to $125 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…