Dreamworks returns to the September animation game next weekend with Abominable. The kiddie adventure comes from director Jill Culton and features the voices of Chloe Bennet, Albert Tsai, Sarah Paulson, and Eddie Izzard. It premiered days ago at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly solid reviews and sports a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 89%.
As mentioned, September (especially the later part of the month) has been fertile ground for animated features. While the HotelTransylvania and CloudywithaChanceofMeatballs franchises have seen debuts above $30 and $40 million, there’s also been several with starts in the $20-$25 million range. This includes OpenSeason (which Culton also made), Storks, TheLegoNinjagoMovie, and last year’s Smallfoot.
That’s precisely where I see Abominable landing and probably on the lower end of that scale.
Abominable opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million
Well… this could be one fascinating weekend as three new titles open in the general same money-making range with two holdovers also anticipated to be in that ballpark. We have Sylvester Stallone returning as his #2 signature character in Rambo: LastBlood, Brad Pitt in the sci fi drama AdAstra, and the cinematic rendering of the beloved PBS British period piece program DowntonAbbey. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
If you’d told me even a week ago that I’d be forecasting Abbey to take the #1 spot over Sly and Brad, I probably wouldn’t have believed it. Yet its approximate 3000 plus screen count (higher than I assumed) and the dedication of its fan base has gotten me there.
I have Abbeyever so slightly topping Rambo. As for Astra, I’m a bit skittish about my projection. It’s received solid reviews and Pitt is coming off the blockbuster Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Considering the competition, however, I see it debuting just slightly higher than last fall’s First Man.
That puts Astra in fourth behind the third weekend of It Chapter Two and just ahead of the sophomore outing for Hustlers (which performed fantastically for its start).
Here’s how I have the top five shaking out:
1. Downton Abbey
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
2. Rambo: Last Blood
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
3. It Chapter Two
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. Ad Astra
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. Hustlers
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
Box Office Results (September 13-15)
Despite a terrific start for Hustlers, It Chapter Two managed to stay atop the charts for the second time with $39.6 million. That’s just ahead of my $38.4 million forecast and it’s scared up $152 million thus far.
Jennifer Lopez easily achieved the best premiere of her career (with Oscar buzz attached) as Hustlers made $33.1 million. I was close at $31.5 million. Word-of-mouth and critical appreciation clearly assisted it in reaching that pole position.
Angel Has Fallen was third with $4.4 million (I said $3.4 million) for $60 million overall while Good Boys followed at #4 with $4.2 million (I said $3.2 million). It’s up to $73 million.
The Lion King rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The Disney smash earned $3.6 million for a tally of $534 million.
This brings us to The Goldfinch. Once an awards hopeful, poor reviews grounded it to an awful eight place showing with $2.6 million. I was more generous with a $5.7 million prediction.
ItChapterTwo looks to stay atop the charts as Hustlers could surprisingly give it a run for its money. We also have John Crowley’s drama TheGoldfinch with Ansel Elgort and Nicole Kidman debuting. Both newbies premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend to vastly differing results. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Hustlers has been showered with major critical acclaim and reviews suggesting costar Jennifer Lopez could be in line for her first Oscar nomination. I believe it has a legitimate chance at hitting $30 million or over, but I’m putting it just a tad under. We shall see if this gets revised up as buzz continues to build.
TheGoldfinch had the opposite reaction. It looked like Oscar bait (unlike Hustlers), but critics have not been kind. My estimate for it has steadily dwindled down. It should secure third place, but with a quiet start.
Pennywise’s return to the silver screen opened on the lower end of expectations. Our first It chapter dipped 51% in its sophomore frame. I believe the sequel will experience a drop more in the mid 50s range.
And with that, my take on the top five:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Hustlers
Predicted Gross: $31.5 million
3. TheGoldfinch
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
4. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (September6–8)
ItChapterTwo dominated our first autumn movie weekend. The lengthy horror sequel took in $91 million. As mentioned, that is at the lower end of projections and below my take of $109.7 million. The pic still managed to grab the second biggest September haul and #2 overall horror starting gross of all time behind… It (which floated to $123.4 million out of the gate).
AngelHasFallen was second with $5.9 million. My prediction? $5.9 million! Total is $53 million.
GoodBoys took third at $5.4 million (I said $4.9 million) and it stands at a solid $66 million.
TheLionKing was fourth with $4.3 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for an overall massive tally of $529 million.
Hobbs&Shaw rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, ahead of my $3 million forecast. It’s up to $164 million.
It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in ItChapterTwo. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.
No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $109.7 million
2. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
3. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $3 million
BoxOfficeResults (August30–September2)
Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as AngelHasFallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.
GoodBoys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.
The summer season ruler Disney had TheLionKing in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.
Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.
Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.
Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’tLetGo tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.
It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’tLetGo with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see AngelHas Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.
GoodBoys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.
And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $9 million
BoxOfficeResults (August23–25)
As mentioned, action threequel AngelHasFallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor LondonHasFallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.
GoodBoys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.
Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.
Hobbs& Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.
TheLionKing rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.
ReadyorNot debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.
Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel AngelHasFallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy ReadyorNot debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and LondonHasFallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of GoodBoys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).
Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of WarRoom, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs&Shaw and sixth weekend of TheLionKing.
I am not seeking an impressive gross for ReadyorNot despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
3. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (August16–18)
It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named GoodBoys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.
Hobbs&Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.
TheLionKing took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.
TheAngryBirdsMovie2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.
ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.
47MetersDown: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.
I incorrectly had TheArtofRacingintheRain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.
The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy BlindedbytheLight failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).
Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’dYouGo, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.
For the second weekend in a row, we have a quintet of new titles populating the marketplace. And like those previous five pictures, all could struggle to break the $20 million mark with some failing to reach double digits. We have the animated sequel TheAngryBirdsMovie2, raunchy preteen comedy GoodBoys, shark sequel 47MetersDown: Uncaged, British musical dramedy BlindedbytheLight, and Richard Linklater directed mystery comedy Where’dYouGo, Bernadette with Cate Blanchett all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The Birds follow-up debuts tomorrow in theaters. Even with that early start, I believe the Friday to Sunday traditional gross should be enough for it to fly into the top spot. That said, I have it well under the $33 million debut of its 2016 predecessor.
The earnings of Boys and Meters might be similar, but my projection puts the former ahead. There could be a legit battle between these two newcomers with the third frame of Hobbs & Shaw, the sophomore frame of ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, and the fifth weekend of TheLionKing. In other words, the placing of the top five could be extremely fluid.
I’m anticipating mid single digits for both Blinded and Bernadette, leaving them well outside the top five and behind DoraandtheLostCityofGold and OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
So while this column is normally estimating the top half of the top 10, I’m doubling it given all the new product:
1. TheAngryBirdsMovie2
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Hobbs & Shaw
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. 47MetersDown: Uncaged
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
6. ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark
Predicted Gross: $10 million
7. DoraandtheLostCityofGold
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
8. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
9. BlindedbytheLight
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
10. Where’dYouGo, Bernadette
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (August9–11)
Hobbs&Shaw parked in first for the second weekend with $25.2 million, a smidge below my $27.5 million forecast. The two week tally stands at $108 million.
In a weekend where I assumed DoraandtheLostCityofGold would fare best among the five newcomers, it was ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark achieving that status. It exceeded most expectations at $20.9 million, well beyond my $14.3 million take.
TheLionKing was third with $20.2 million. My prediction? $20.2 million! It now is Disney’s largest earning live action title at $473 million.
Aforementioned Dora was fourth with a middling $17.4 million, falling below my projection of $19.7 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood hit the century mark and rounded out the top five. Earning $11.6 million (I said $11.3 million), the total is a cool $100 million.
TheArtofRacingintheRain premiered in sixth with a meh $8.1 million. Good news for me for the second time as I said $8.1 million.
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish learned audiences wouldn’t turn out for them in a crime thriller. The poorly reviewed TheKitchen was seventh with just $5.5 million compared to my more generous $8.3 million prediction.
Finally, BrianBanks opened in 11th with $2.1 million. I was close at $2.3 million.
Blogger’s Note (08/07): My ScaryStories prediction has risen from $10.7 million to $14.3 million
After several weeks of one giant blockbuster hopeful debuting and having the weekend to itself, a quintet of mid tier titles open in this second weekend of August. We have the kid friendly DoraandtheLostCityofGold based on the Nickelodeon series, PG-13 horror flick ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, Melissa McCarthy/Tiffany Haddish crime thriller TheKitchen, dog tale TheArtofRacingintheRain, and wrongful imprisonment drama BrianBanks all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Some weekends, it’s fairly easy to project the order of the top five. This isn’t one of them. A couple of things seem highly likely. After a decent start that was still on the bottom end of expectations, Hobbs&Shaw should manage to repeat in first place. I will say a drop of over 50% is where I see it landing in the sophomore frame.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold seems poised to have to biggest premiere of the five newbies. However, my high teens projection puts it in third behind TheLionKing.
I have ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, TheKitchen, and TheArtofRacingintheRain all in the high single digits to low double digits range and all behind the third weekend of OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
As for BrianBanks, its lack of promotion and lowly 1500 theater count means my $2.3 million prediction means it shouldn’t even compete for the top five.
So on this weekend of multiple new releases, my top seven take:
1. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $27.5 million
2. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $20.2 million
3. DoraandtheLostCityofGold
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million
4. ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
5. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
6. TheKitchen
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
7. TheArtofRacingintheRain
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (August2–4)
FastandFurious spin-off Hobbs&Shaw cruised over holdover competition as anticipated, but it couldn’t match the starting earnings of the last several traditional franchise entries. It took in $60 million, under my take of $72.6 million.
TheLionKing was second after two weeks of dominance with $38.5 million, right on pace with my $38.7 million projection. The massive total stands at $431 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was third in weekend #2 with $20 million, in line with my $20.7 million prediction. The two week haul is $78 million.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome took fourth with $7.9 million (I said $7.1 million) for $360 million overall.
ToyStory4 rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I was slightly lower with $6.6 million) for a take of $410 million.
Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs&Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million
It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs&Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the FastandFurious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking TheLionKing from its two week perch atop the charts.
OnceUpon a TimeinHollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 filling out the top five.
There is a potential wild card this weekend with TheFarewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $72.6 million
2. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
4. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July26–28)
TheLionKing, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.
Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with OnceUponaTimeinHollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.
ToyStory4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.
I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.
Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.
Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed OnceUponaTimeinHollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking TheLionKing. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, InglouriousBasterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.
As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles2.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome looks to be third with ToyStory4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.
And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
2. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
3. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (July19–21)
Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. TheLionKing easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by HarryPotterandtheDeathlyHallowsPart2 by over $20 million.
Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.
After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: FarFromHome slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.
ToyStory4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.
Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.
Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.
I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.
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