September 27-29 Box Office Predictions

It’s the weekend before Joker hopes to set the all-time October weekend record and September ends with the release of Dreamworks Animation’s Abominable hoping to nab first position. You can peruse my detailed prediction post of it here:

I look for the newcomer to have a debut in similar range with other late similar genre September titles such as Open Season, Storks, and Smallfoot. A low 20s start should be solid enough for the top spot.

Downton Abbey, after a sizzling premiere that easily blasted past Brad Pitt and Sylvester Stallone’s newbies, should move down a slot with a dip in the low to mid 40s range. It is worth wondering how much of its business was front loaded due to fan anticipation.

Ad Astra managed to slightly outdo Rambo: Last Blood and I believe their sophomore drops will track with different stories. Comparing Astra to First Man (which had a 48% dip) and Blood to the last Rambo flick (it fell a steep 60%), Mr. Pitt should manage a third place showing. Mr. Stallone, on the contrary, could fall out of the top 5 altogether when factoring in holds by Hustlers and It Chapter Two (I’m actually projecting J-Lo will vault up a spot to four over Pennywise).

And with that in mind, here’s my take on our top 6 ahead of us:

1. Abominable 

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

2. Downton Abbey 

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

3. Ad Astra 

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Hustlers 

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. It Chapter Two 

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Rambo: Last Blood 

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (September 20-22)

The Abbey faithful turned out in gigantic numbers for its cinematic rendering with $31 million, easily topping my $20.8 million take. It gives Focus Features its finest start of all time and will be a massively profitable venture considering a small budget.

Ad Astra narrowly took second with $19 million. The Brad Pitt space opera did manage to launch above my $16.9 million projection, but it’s still considered a so-so beginning due to a budget in the $100 million range.

Sylvester Stallone’s second most famous character settled for third as Rambo: Last Blood sliced up $18.8 million, a tad under my $20.4 million prediction. Look for this critically reviled sequel to fade quickly.

After two weeks floating atop the charts, It Chapter Two was fourth with $17 million (I said $18.9 million). Its three week tally is $178 million.

Hustlers rounded out the top five with $16.8 million, in line with my $16.2 million projection. The film has earned over 62 million one dollar bills presently.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: