October 4-6 Box Office Predictions

The new month’s box office kicks off with Warner Bros not clowning around and hoping for the best October opening ever with Joker. The Joaquin Phoenix led hard R rated comic book adaptation has received a ton of publicity (both pro and con) over the last few weeks. This certainly isn’t a picture that’s sneaking into theaters and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:


In order to set the record, Joker needs to top the $80.2 million premiere by Venom last year. I’m estimating that it will do so by nearly $10 million. It’s worth noting that forecasts are varying wildly with guesstimates as low as $65 million and others saying it could top $100 million.

No other studio chose to debut anything against it so the rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers. Here’s one to keep to an eye on: the Renee Zellweger Oscar hopeful Judy has the highest per screen average this past frame. That was in just under 500 theaters and word is that it’ll expand to approximately 1500 venues. If that holds, the pic could make a home in the top five over It Chapter Two and Ad Astra.

And with that, my look at the weekend ahead:

1. Joker

Predicted Gross: $89.6 million

2. Abominable

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

3. Downton Abbey

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Hustlers

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. Judy

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million


Box Office Results (September 27-29)

As expected, Dreamworks Animation’s Abominable debuted atop the charts with a so-so $20.6 million, right on target with my $20.7 million forecast. That’s on the low end of where these family friendly toons have premiered in late September over the last few years.

Placing second, Downton Abbey did show a front loaded nature as it fell to $14.3 million in weekend #2, below my $17.4 million projection. The two-week haul, however, is a magnificent $58 million.

Hustlers displayed a fine hold in third with $11.3 million compared to my $9.5 million prediction. The Jennifer Lopez flick has amassed $80 million.

It Chapter Two was fourth and is nearing the double century mark, earning $10.2 million (I was under at $8.3 million) to bring its tally to $193 million.

Ad Astra rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.3 million) for $35 million overall.

Rambo: Last Blood was sixth with $8.5 million, a bit above my $7.8 million take. Total is $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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