After it played the film festival circuit last fall it became clear Jason Reitman’s Labor Day was not going to be the awards contender the studio hoped for. Starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin, the pic generated mostly positive but unspectacular reviews. It was given a late qualifying limited run for Oscar consideration and ignored.
Director Reitman is mostly known for comedic dramas like Juno, Up in the Air, and Young Adult. This one is on the more serious side and Paramount is hoping the romantic plot between its stars will bring females out. Labor Day may follow in the direction of another Winslet drama that the Academy mostly ignored five years ago – Revolutionary Road. That title only managed $22 million domestically in its entire run. And it had Kate’s Titanic costar Leonardo DiCaprio in it.
Labor Day is opening on over half as many screens as Road did so its opening weekend should top the $5 million that it managed. However, passing double digits seems unlikely to me though it should come close.
Labor Day opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
For my prediction on That Awkward Moment, click here:
And so begins one of the more dull weekends of the year historically at the box office and 2014 seems no different. While moviegoers may catch up on some January leftovers or Oscar hopefuls, audience attention will likely be focused on another activity: the Denver Broncos vs. the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
This leaves only two modest openings which aren’t expected to rustle up much business. First off is That Awkward Moment, an R-rated rom com headlined by Zac Efron, Fruitvale Station‘s Michael B. Jordan, and Miles Teller. The film’s marketing campaign has been rather muted and that indicates a dearth of confidence from Focus Features.
That Awkward Moment stands a chance at a double digit premiere, but I think it’ll be lucky to reach the $8.7 million opening that 21&Over (a similarly themed title) reached in March 2013. I think Moment falls just under that.
That Awkward Moment opening weekend prediction: $8 million
Aaron Eckhart stars in I, Frankenstein which opens this coming Friday and is the only wide release hitting theaters next weekend. This is likely not a matter of other studios being scared that I, Frankenstein is going to be a monster hit (pun intended). This is more due to the fact that four movies opened over MLK weekend and there’s still plenty of holiday leftovers making money.
Frankenstein‘s release date has been pushed back several times. It was originally scheduled to open almost a year ago. This reimagining of the familiar story that originated with Mary Shelley’s novel and has seen numerous film incarnations doesn’t inspire much excitement from its middling TV spots. Furthermore, while Eckhart is a well-respected actor, he’s not a box office draw.
The film’s best hope for box office success hinges on the fact that it’s got the word Frankenstein in the title. That might not get it far enough along to justify its $68 million budget. On the same weekend last year, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters opened to a decent $19.6 million. Lionsgate would probably be pleased with a similar result here.
The possibility of I, Frankenstein getting past $20 million out of the gate is reasonable, but I don’t think it’ll reach the total that those witch hunters accomplished a year ago. Therefore – I, Todd Thatcher, believe I, Frankenstein is headed toward a so-so premiere.
I, Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
Four new titles populate multiplexes this Friday over the four-day MLK weekend – Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job. You can peruse my prediction posts on each one of them at the following links:
The big question is: can any of these releases knock off Lone Survivor from staying at #1 for the second weekend? The Mark Wahlberg Navy SEAL pic had the second highest January debut of all time, far surpassing the box office predictions of prognosticators, including this one. With its remarkable A+ Cinemascore average, word of mouth on Survivor is very strong and it should hold up quite well in weekend number two.
The 2014 MLK weekend may well resemble the same one from five years ago when four new releases all posted healthy debuts. There was Paul Blart: Mall Cop which made $39 million over the four-day while My Bloody Valentine 3D, Notorious, and Hotel for Dogs all posted openings of over $20 million. The four new titles this year I have pegged at between $17-$25 million each, but any of them could do better and take top honors from Wahlberg and company. My predictions do not reflect that though and I believe Lone Survivor should stay alone at the top spot.
And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend’s top five for the four-day Friday to Monday frame:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 19%)
2. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
3. Ride Along
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
4. The Nut Job
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
5. Devil’s Due
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
My Results from Last Weekend (January 10-12):
As I mentioned, Lone Survivor went beyond expectations with a terrific debut of $37.8 million, well ahead of my paltry $21.7M projection. Disney’s Frozen stayed at #2 with $14.7 million, a bit higher than my estimate of $13.5M. The Legend of Hercules debuted at third with a disappointing $8.8 million, below my $11.9M prediction. The Wolf of Wall Street was fourth, also with $8.8 million – right in line with my $8.5M estimate. American Hustle was fifth with $8.3 million and I incorrectly did not have it the top five. The six spot belonged to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug with $8 million, just under my $8.4M projection.
Finally, two Oscar hopefuls expanded their theater counts with different results. August: Osage County was seventh with a solid $7.1 million on only around 900 screens, beyond my $5.8M projection. Her was a disappointment, managing only $5.3 million for an 11th place showing, well below my $8.3M estimate.
And that’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results next week.
While Disney’s Frozen continues to post impressive numbers after several weeks in release, another animated tale debuts Friday with The Nut Job. This is the first animated feature from Open Roads Films with the Weinstein Company picking up international distribution. Featuring the voices of Will Arnett, Brendan Fraser, Liam Neeson, and Katherine Heigl, the squirrel flick is certainly nowhere near the stratosphere of any Pixar or Disney product or anything like the Despicable Me series.
Still, family audiences could be on the lookout for something new as Frozen has been out for quite a while now. Having said that, this is certainly on the B team of animated movies and I wouldn’t expect anything too high. Anything over $25 million for the four day MLK weekend would be surprising. I expect it to follow the pattern of another “B team” animated entry – last year’s Escape from Planet Earth. That film earned $15.8 million over the three day portion of 2013’s President’s Day weekend and $21.1 million for the four day holiday time frame. That seems like a fairly reasonable range for The Nut Job, but I will predict this falls a bit under that.
The Nut Job opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
The found footage horror flick Devil’s Due delivers itself unto theaters this Friday. When looking at horror titles released in January, there’s plenty of them to look at for comparisons sake.
Two years ago, The Devil Inside (a similarly themed movie) hauled in an incredible $33.7 million in its debut. There’s also genre pics that opened over the same MLK holiday weekend: in 2009, My Blood Valentine 3D opened to $24.1 million over the four-day and just last year, Mama premiered to a terrific $32.1 million over that time frame. Another similar title, 2009’s The Unborn, debuted to $20.8 million in January.
Then there’s the flipside. Just last weekend, found footage sequel Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones debuted to a less than expected $18.3 million. Audiences may be tiring of being fed the same movie over and over again and Devil’s Due looks like it might fall under that category. Horror films are notoriously difficult to predict. Devil’s Due has the potential to reach the heights of The Devil Inside or Mama, but I don’t believe it will. The film could also tank and struggle to reach double digits. I think it will perform similar to yet another January horror flick from 2011 – The Rite, which made $14.7 million for its opening. I am predicting a mid teens debut for the three-day and higher teens for the four-day.
Devil’s Due opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
Ice Cube and Kevin Hart team up for the action comedy Ride Along, out Friday. Both performers have had a history of solid box office returns. Just two years ago, Hart headlined Think Like a Man, which debuted in April 2012 to an astonishing $33.6 million opening. Ice Cube has seen his Barbershop pictures and family titles like Are There We Yet? and sequel Are We Done Yet? all debut in the mid teen to low 20s range.
The range for how Ride Along could perform is pretty wide. I wouldn’t be too surprised if it approached an opening around $30 million for the four-day MLK weekend. However, the amount of competition out there that includes Lone Survivor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and Devil’s Due might bring those numbers below that. A more likely scenario in my mind is a three-day debut in the high teens with a four-day holiday gross in the low 20s. It is worth noting, though, that these actors have had larger than expected premieres before, so you never know.
Ride Along opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
After nearly twelve years away from the screen, the character of CIA agent Jack Ryan returns with the fourth actor playing the role in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, out Friday. We’ve had Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford, and Ben Affleck in the part and now it’s Chris Pine’s turn.
Based on the works of the late Tom Clancy, Shadow Recruit is the first Ryan pic not specifically based on one of his books. Kenneth Branagh, who most recently directed the first Thor movie, is behind the camera. Kevin Costner and Keira Knightley costar. As mentioned, it’s been since May 2002 when Affleck starred in The Sum of All Fears. This franchise has been rather consistent in its grosses. Here’s a rundown:
1990: The Hunt for Red October – opening: $17.1 million. Total domestic gross: $122 million.
1992: Patriot Games – opening: $18.5 million. Total domestic gross: $83.3 million.
1994: Clear and Present Danger – opening: $20.3 million. Total domestic gross: $122.1 million.
2002: The Sum of All Fears – opening: $31.1 million. Total domestic gross: $118.9 million.
Shadow Recruit was originally scheduled to debut over Christmas but was pushed back to January by Paramount when The Wolf of Wall Street was delayed to the holiday weekend. It will be interesting to see how the long gap between Ryan features affects its gross. While the previous entries have been solid grossers, I don’t really feel that there was a big clamoring for another installment. When the Bourne franchise shuffled the deck and put Jeremy Renner in the role with Matt Damon out, it opened with a solid $38 million in 2012. Yet that was far below what previous Bourne flicks had accomplished. And that franchise was more current with audiences as well. Recruit probably won’t reach the heights of what Bourne did two years ago. Chris Pine likely doesn’t have the star power to guarantee a huge opening. His other franchise, Star Trek, already has a built-in audience.
And then there’s the competition factor, which is significant. Lone Survivor just had the second biggest January opening of all time and it should continue to play well in its sophomore weekend. Recruit is going after the same crowd that Survivor appeals to. And there’s also Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job all opening which cater to African-American, horror, and family audiences, respectively.
Add all that up and I expect Recruit to have a respectable though unspectacular debut over the four day MLK weekend.
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit opening weekend prediction: $25.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)
Opening tomorrow in approximately 900 theaters is August: Osage County, which is based on a Pulitzer Prize winning play and features a cast of acting heavyweights. For many months, John Wells’ drama/comedy from the Weinstein Company was looked at as a potential Oscar favorite. While it stands a remote shot at a Best Picture nomination, reviews have been mixed and it currently stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Stars Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts stand better chances at Academy Award nominations. County‘s co-stars include Ewan McGregor, Chris Cooper, Abigail Breslin, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, and Margo Martindale in this tale of a dysfunctional family and their secrets.
The picture has one thing in its favor: while Lone Survivor and The Legend of Hercules are more geared toward male viewers, this is hoping to bring out females. It has more things not in its favor: Oscar hopeful Her is also expanding this weekend and could nab a larger portion of the female crowd. It’s only opening on approximately 900 screens, which will diminish its gross. And, most importantly, the awards buzz never reached anywhere near the level that the studio was hoping for.
Add all that up and I expect August: Osage County to post an OK but rather unimpressive debut in its expansion.
August: Osage County opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
Blogger’s Note: Followers of this site may know that my box office predictions for the following weekend’s films are always posted on the prior Sunday. August: Osage County is an exception because it wasn’t until today that I knew approximately how many theaters the picture was debuting in. My normal Sunday predictions will continue to be the always preferred method.
The second weekend of 2014 brings three new wide release offerings for your consideration – the war drama Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg, Renny Harlin’s The Legend of Hercules, and Spike Jonze’s critically acclaimed Her with Joaquin Phoenix. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Lone Survivor should fairly easily open at #1. The Legend of Hercules could completely bomb, but I’m giving it enough credit to reach double digits at the three spot. Her likely won’t reach double digits.
Last weekend’s champ Frozen should slip to second while I am predicting holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will battle Her for slots 4-6.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend box office:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. The Legend of Hercules
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
6. Her
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Blogger’s note: For the past several months, I’ve been doing box office results analysis every Sunday. Starting next week, I will be combining the results from the previous weekend with this here weekly predictions post for the next weekend which comes every Monday. The main reason: I’m usually busy Sunday doing my predictions posts for the next week’s newcomers, which will continue without interruption. Secondly, the final box office numbers come in Monday so I can more accurately update how I performed. Until next time, my friends!
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