The $100 million budgeted gladiator epic Pompeii arrives in theaters Friday and this begs an obvious question: they invested $100 million dollars on this!?!?!
Director Paul W.S. Anderson is known for the Resident Evil franchise and here his attention turns to 79 A.D. for this action fest. The cast includes Kit Harrington from “Games of Thrones”, Emily Browning, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Kiefer Sutherland. The marketing campaign has been pretty muted for a picture of this budget. While FilmDistrict is maybe hoping for 300 type numbers, I don’t think Pompeii has a shot of that. Perhaps its 3D ticket prices could help, but I’m skeptical of that as well.
Pompeii has the look of a high-priced flop to this movie blogger. It could surprise me with high teens or beyond, but my gut says low teens.
All of a sudden Kevin Costner is everywhere and in the last few months he’s appeared in Man of Steel, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and the upcoming football flick Draft Day. For this weekend it’s the action/thriller 3 Days to Kill which is helmed by McG, director of the Charlie’s Angels pics and Terminator: Salvation.
Costner certainly isn’t the box office draw that he was a couple of decades ago and the advertising for Kill doesn’t make it look like anything other than a generic action movie. My main question is whether or not this even gets past single digits in its debut. I have my doubts and don’t see a compelling reason why this would have a solid opening. If Liam Neeson were headlining this, I’d likely to be singing a different tune but since that’s not the case I’m going low here.
3 Days to Kill opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million
I’ve already covered two 80s remakes (Robocop and About Last Night) that will be released Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend and now we move to the third – Endless Love. This one updates the 1981 Brooke Shields flick that today is mostly known for its title song sung by Lionel Richie and Diana Ross. In this case, blogging last about this movie may be indeed because it’ll make the least.
Alex Pettyfer from Magic Mike and Gabriella Wilde from The Three Musketeers headline the romantic drama. The fact that it’s being released on Valentine’s Day will only help it grosses, but it’s worth noting that Winter’s Tale and About Last Night are also making a play for the V Day crowd. I expect both of them to outdo Love.
Endless Love should easily get beyond double digits for the four day weekend, but anything over mid teens would be higher than I can envision.
Endless Love opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million
This weekend’s romantic drama Winter’s Tale is the sole picture of the quartet coming out over President’s Day that isn’t based on a 1980s flick. It is based on a novel from Mark Helprin that came out in the 80s though. The period piece’s cast includes Colin Farrell, Jennifer Connelly, and Russell Crowe and comes from Akiva Goldsman, making his feature directorial debut. He’s well-known in Hollywood for his screenplays and they include A Time to Kill, A Beautiful Mind, Cinderella Man, and The Da Vinci Code.
Warner Bros. is definitely hoping the pic’s Valentine’s Day release date brings in couples. And I’ll predict that the release date will certainly help. Anything over $20 million would be considered quite a feat and it wouldn’t shock me if it got there (it has a smallish $46M budget). However, with direct competition from both About Last Night and Endless Love, I believe a more likely scenario is a debut in the high teens.
Winter’s Tale opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million (Friday to Monday)
The President’s Day cavalcade of 80s remakes continues on with About Last Night, which updates the 1986 romance that starred Rob Lowe, Demi Moore, Jim Belushi, and Elizabeth Perkins. Perfectly positioned with a Valentine’s Day release – it will face competition from other romantic themed pictures Winter’s Tale and Endless Love, which I’ll get to later today.
About Last Night, however, has a pretty big ace up its sleeve in the form of Kevin Hart who couldn’t be more popular right now with the massive success of last month’s Ride Along. Costars include Michael Ealy, Regina Hall, and Joy Bryant. The combination of Hart and its well-timed release leads me to believe this could open very big, perhaps even surpassing Robocop – another high-profile 80s reboot. For comparisons sake, it could open similar to what The Best Man Holiday did in November with $30 million.
The four day holiday gross may push About Last Night beyond that number by a bit. This film should especially do well with African-American audiences, who made up 87% of Holiday‘s opening weekend crowd. Bottom line: Kevin Hart’s run of box office fortune in 2014 should continue here.
About Last Night opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million (Friday to Monday gross)
It’s been over 20 years since the character has appeared on screen, but that will change Wednesday when the Robocop reboot hits theaters. A remake of the 1987 action hit, director Jose Padilha takes over the franchise with relative unknown Joel Kinnaman taking on the title role that Peter Weller made famous over a quarter century ago.
While Kinnaman isn’t well-known, there are plenty of familiar faces in supporting roles including Samuel L. Jackson, Gary Oldman, Michael Keaton, Abbie Cornish, and Jackie Earle Haley. MGM and Columbia are clearly hoping they have a worldwide hit on their hands with the pic’s large $130 million budget. Reviews have been mixed so far with a current rating of 48% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Robocop launches on Wednesday so my prediction will reflect my feeling for both its Friday to Monday gross over the President’s Day weekend and its total six day haul. On this same weekend last year, A Good Day to Die Hard took in nearly $29 million over the four day with almost $37 million when you factor in its Thursday debut. Robocop has an extra day to bring in the money, but I feel this may open with slightly smaller results. It doesn’t have the star power of Bruce Willis in his most famous role, but there certainly is a highly familiarity of many moviegoers with the source material.
Robocop opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million (Friday to Monday), $34.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:
On Friday, Vampire Academy attempts to bring in teen audiences with its mix of fantasy and comedy. It’s based on a bestselling 2007 novel and comes from director Mark Waters, mostly known for his successes with Lindsay Lohan in Freaky Friday and Mean Girls. The cast mostly consists of unknowns.
Vampire Academy would love to see an opening gross similar to that of Warm Bodies, which opened in early February last year to a $20 million start. The other scenario could be a debut in line with Beautiful Creatures, which also opened in February 2013 to only $7.5 million. My gut tells me the latter is more likely.
The picture just doesn’t seem to have much traction and the marketing campaign has been rather quiet. While it could eek past double digits, I think Vampire Academy falls short of that for a lackluster premiere.
Vampire Academy opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For much of 2013, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men was looked at as a potential Oscar contender and was scheduled to be released in December. Last fall it was pushed back to February and now it appears we may know why. Reviews have not been too kind and the film currently sits at only 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. Simply put, The Monuments Men was not going to be recognized by the Academy and Columbia Pictures probably realized it.
What impact will the negative critical reaction have? At one time, I might’ve thought Monuments could reach an opening gross similar to what Argo did ($19M) or even Captain Phillips ($25M). Now I’m skeptical. The World War II era picture focuses on people tasked with saving cultural artifacts before the Hitler regime destroys them. Clooney directs and stars and he’s brought in an impressive cast that includes Matt Damon, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, Hugh Bonneville, and Bob Balaban. Where Monuments Men could score is with adult filmgoers looking for something to watch after they’ve seen the Oscar favorites.
Having said that, the unfavorable reaction so far doesn’t help. I believe this won’t reach past $20 million and that a debut in the mid to late teens is more probable.
The Monuments Men opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million
2013 was a huge year for animated pictures and now the first weekend in February brings The Lego Movie, a high-profile offering from Warner Bros. based on that line of toys that we all grew up and played with. Lego features the voices of plenty of actors we know including Will Ferrell, Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett, Charlie Day, Morgan Freeman, Liam Neeson, Channing Tatum, and Jonah Hill.
While The Lego Movie is unlikely to reach the heights of Despicable Me 2, Frozen, or Monsters University from last year, it’s reasonable to speculate than an opening similar to Wreck It Ralph is in the cards. That title opened to $49 million in November 2012. I believe the widespread familiarity of the pic’s subject matter and its robust marketing campaign may actually propel it a bit higher and over the $50M mark. This is the type of animated flick that parents probably won’t mind taking the kiddos to and I’m predicting stellar results.
The Lego Movie opening weekend prediction: $54.2 million
For my prediction on The Monuments Men, click here:
It’s very early in the year but this upcoming weekend at the box office is a good candidate for one of the dullest we’ll see all year. The Zac Efron comedy That Awkward Moment and Kate Winslet/Josh Brolin drama Labor Day are the only debuts and neither seems to be garnering much excitement. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:
If neither of those titles breaks out above double digits, the chance are high that the Kevin Hart/Ice Cube comedy Ride Along could top the box office for the third week in a row. There is, however, another factor. Disney’s megahit Frozen is expanding its theater count with a sing-along version of the film and that just might cause it to see an increase from this past weekend. I’m predicting it’ll be extremely close between those holdovers for #1 in a weekend sure to overshadowed by a certain football game capturing the nation’s attention.
With that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Ride Along
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing an increase of 19%)
3. Labor Day
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. That Awkward Moment
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. The Nut Job
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS FROM LAST WEEKEND: I correctly called Ride Along being #1 for its second weekend and it made $21.2 million, just below my $22.7M prediction. However, I was off with my I, Frankenstein estimate. The critically reviled pic bombed badly with only $8.6 million for a sixth place showing. I gave it way too much credit and said it’d be #2 with $16.6M. Oops. Lone Survivor was second with $12.9 million (in line with my $13.6M prediction) and The Nut Job was third with $12.9 million (in line with my $12.1M prediction). Once again, I made the mistake of leaving Frozen out of the top five. It was fourth with $9.1 million. This left Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit at fifth in its second weekend with $9 million – on pace with my $9.5M estimate.
That’s all for now! I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final predictions and results Monday.
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