Tag: box office predictions

Her Box Office Prediction

Combining comedy with science fiction and drama and romance in a critically-acclaimed awards contender? That means Spike Jonze is back in theaters and his fourth feature Her is released wide this Friday. Jonze was a prominent music video director who broke through with 1999’s Being John Malkovich and went on to helm 2002’s Adaptation and 2009’s Where the Wild Things Are.

Her stars Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Rooney Mara, and the voice of Scarlett Johannson. It’s being touted as an Oscar contender and I am currently predicting both the picture and Jonze receive nominations. Her is a favorite of critics with a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

How this translates into box office success is a question mark. Opening in approximately 1700 theaters, one must wonder if many casual moviegoers will look at this as more of an art house picture and skip it. On the positive side, it could appeal to a female audience whereas the weekend’s other newcomers Lone Survivor and The Legend of Hercules are marketing toward the male crowd. With a relatively low number of screens (Lone Survivor will debut on about one thousand more), Her could flirt with a double digits opening. I suspect, however, that it will fall a bit under that.

Her opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

The Legend of Hercules Box Office Prediction

Last year it was dueling White House in danger movies and in 2014, there are two Hercules pics and it begins Friday with The Legend of Hercules, Renny Harlin’s effort starring Kellan Lutz. In July comes Hercules: The Thracian Wars from director Brett Ratner and starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

The Legend of Hercules is highly likely to be the least successful of the pair. Lutz is mostly known for his role in the Twilight franchise and recently for possibly being Miley Cyrus’s boyfriend. He is not a known box office commodity and shouldn’t bring in moviegoers like The Rock probably will. With a reported $70 million budget, The Legend of Hercules is surely looking for a debut above $20 million, but I don’t see it happening. It doesn’t help that Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg opens against it and that picture is competing for essentially the same audience.

Perhaps this first Hercules of 2014 could surprise with a healthy gross, but I suspect it’ll struggle to get much past double digits.

The Legend of Hercules opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

For my prediction on Lone Survivor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Lone Survivor Box Office Prediction

Peter Berg’s war drama Lone Survivor starring Mark Wahlberg hits theaters this Friday and it will attempt to reach solid box office numbers like Zero Dark Thirty did in this same weekend just last year.

The picture focuses on a true-life tale of U.S. Navy SEALS during a mission in Afghanistan with Wahlberg leading a cast that includes Emile Hirsch, Eric Bana, and Taylor Kitsch. It was released in limited format in December to qualify for Oscar consideration and while reviews have been mostly positive (67% on Rotten Tomatoes), it appears unlikely to receive nominations.

As mentioned, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty opened on this very weekend a year ago and performed well with a $24.4 million debut. That film had a couple of things in its favor that Survivor does not: it was considered a major awards contender and it focused on a mission that audiences were extremely familiar with – the hunt for Bin Laden.

On the other hand, unlike Zero Dark, this has a big star headlining it whose action-related pics generally open well. In fact, on this same weekend two years ago, Wahlberg’s Contraband made $28.5 million over its four-day debut (it was Martin Luther King weekend that year). Last year, both Pain and Gain and 2 Guns managed to post openings north of $20 million.

There will be competition for male audiences with The Legend of Hercules, but I expect this to win out. My prediction reflects a feeling that it’ll debut a bit below Zero Dark Thirty, though not by much. Anything below $20 million would be a bit disappointing and this could go as big as high 20s. I’m sticking with low 20s though.

Lone Survivor opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million

For my prediction on The Legend of Hercules, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Her, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on August: Osage County, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/09/august-osage-county-box-office-prediction/

Star Trek Into Darkness Box Office Prediction

Before JJ Abrams moves onto making another beloved sci-fi franchise that begins with the word “Star”, the director is following up his massively successful restart of another beloved franchise with Star Trek Into Darkness, opening Thursday.

In the summer of 2009, Star Trek reinvigorated a slumping franchise to the tune of a $257 million domestic gross. The film’s reputation has only seemed to grow in the past four years. The sequel sees Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto return as Kirk and Spock and the marketing campaign has been heavy. With Iron Man 3 entering its third weekend, Darkness is poised to make a splashy #1 debut.

Against smaller expectations four years ago, Star Trek debuted to a very impressive $75 million in its first weekend. It would stand to reason that the sequel’s opening gross will be bigger. Plus it opens on Thursday, so the four-day gross alone as opposed to the original’s three should be greater.

The question is: just how much bigger will it open? While audiences certainly liked what they saw in 2009, it’s a legitimate point to wonder just how many new viewers will turn out the first weekend. The Trekkie fan base certainly grew with Abrams taking over the series and it exposed many younger moviegoers to Captain Kirk’s world.

While I believe the Friday to Sunday portion of Darkness‘s take will exceed $75 million, it may not exceed it by a whole lot, especially with the Thursday debut when die-hard Trekkies will rush out to see it.

So – what’s the ceiling here? I’d say $120 million is not unreasonable for the four-day take. Once again, I’m tempted to go there. Yet, ultimately, I believe a Friday to Sunday take in the mid-80s in addition to a high teens to low twenties Thursday gross is more possible.

In just two years, JJ Abrams will direct the breathlessly awaited seventh episode of the Star Wars franchise. He should definitely be coming off a sizable hit with Star Trek Into Darkness as he begins work on that picture in England.

Star Trek Into Darkness opening weekend (including Thursday) prediction: $106.2 million

On Wednesday, I’ll predict the weekend’s Top Five which includes the second frame of The Great Gatsby and Tony Stark’s third weekend.