Box Office Predictions: March 21-23

Two new entries should take the two top spots at the box office this weekend as Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on both here:

Prognosticators have Divergent debuting anywhere from $50 million to over the $70 million that Twilight achieved in 2008. My estimate reflects going towards the higher end of the scale though I believe it’ll reach just short of Twilight heights.

Muppets Most Wanted could debut with $30 million or more, but my prediction reflects a belief that it will open below its predecessor from 2011.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Mr. Peabody and Sherman may fall more in its third weekend than its second due to Kermit and company. 300: Rise of an Empire and Need for Speed should suffer healthy falls in their third and second weekends, respectively.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $68.4 million

2. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Mr. Peabody and Sherman

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Need for Speed

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results: March 14-16

The story of the weekend was the lackluster openings of both new films – Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club. Their failure to reach their intended audiences allowed Mr. Peabody and Sherman to rise to the top in its second weekend with $21.8 million, slightly ahead of my $20.4M projection.

300: Rise of an Empire fell to second in its sophomore frame with $19.2 million – in line with my $18.8M estimate.

Need for Speed disappointed bringing in a weak $17.8 million, well below my $25.3M estimate. The film proved one more example of a popular video game failing to generate audience excitement.

Non-Stop was fourth with $10.6 million – holding up stronger than my $8.2 million prediction.

In fifth with disastrous results was Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, which represented the star’s worst debut ever for a picture he directed. It earned only $8 million, far below my $17.6M estimate. While Perry is finding success on the OWN Network with his television programs, his film career is clearly losing its luster.

As always, I’ll have full results Monday when the final numbers roll in. Stay tuned!

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