Opening a year after the hit Divergent, Insurgent is the second picture in a series of wildly popular YA novels penned by Veronica Roth. Stars Shailene Woodley, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Theo James, Kate Winslet and Zoe Kravitz are back in the mix, along with newcomers to the franchise Naomi Watts and Octavia Spencer.
While this series will likely never do Hunger Games level numbers, the original opened to an impressive $54 million last March on its way to a $150 million domestic haul. It doesn’t hurt that Woodley, Teller, and Elgort have kept themselves firmly in the public eye with recent commercial and critical hits such as The Fault in Our Stars and Whiplash.
The big question is whether or not Insurgent manages to open larger than its predecessor. My gut feeling is that it will, even though competition among female fans will be considerable with Cinderella’s second weekend. I believe this will manage to break the $60 million mark out of the gate.
Insurgent opening weekend prediction: $62.1 million
It may be Friday the 13th coming up, but Disney’s live-action Cinderella seems poised to reverse some recent bad luck at the box office. The Kenneth Branagh directed tale, which has been receiving highly positive reviews, should easily dominate the charts this weekend.
Results may not be as positive for the Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night, which is likely to gross nowhere near what the star’s Taken franchise has accomplished.
They are the two new releases this weekend and you can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:
Cinderella and Run All Night should populate spots #1 and #2. The rest of the top five could be a close race between leftovers Chappie, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Focus.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $67.8 million
2. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
3. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. Focus
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (March 6-8)
Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi robot pic Chappie might be able to claim it opened #1, though that’s about the only item the studio can brag about. In what is so far the worst box office weekend of 2015, Chappie debuted to a weak $13.3 million, more than $10 million below my $23.8M estimate. The director has seen diminishing returns from his Oscar nominated District 9 to Elysium to this.
Will Smith’s Focus fell to second in its sophomore frame with $10 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate. Its total stands at an unimpressive $34 million, far under what most movies featuring the Fresh Prince usually earn.
Sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a lone bright spot with a solid $8.5 million (especially considering its low number of screens). This put it right with my $8.6M projection.
Kingsman: The Secret Service added $8.3 million to its $98 million haul, just over my $7.7M prediction.
I incorrectly had the SpongeBob movie outside of the top five and it placed there with $6.6 million (total: $148M).
That’s because I incorrectly placed the critically drubbed Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business in the top five. It landed with a resounding thud in 10th place with just $4.7 million (I said $8.4M). This is easily Vaughn’s worst opening for a comedy and continues his recent streak of bad luck in theaters.
Lastly, American Sniper achieved a milestone as it has earned $337 million. That officially makes it the highest grossing film of 2014 after edging out the $336 million that the third Hunger Games entry accomplished.
Liam Neeson is yet again back in action mode with Run All Night, out Friday. Since his reinvention as a B movie shoot em up lead seven years ago with Taken, Neeson has managed to star in a string of successful genre pics. This one finds him as an aging hitman with Ed Harris, Joel Kinnaman, and Common in the cast.
The advertisements have done little to make Run All Night look like anything other than a run of the mill entry into Neeson’s filmography. Perhaps the largest hindrance it faces is the fact that it arrives just two months following Taken 3. While that movie was successful, it made about $50 million less than the second pic and it probably gave many filmgoers their fill of Neeson inspired violence.
While the weak box office should guarantee it a second place debut (far behind Cinderella), I have a feeling this will open on pace with the actor’s September dud A Walk Among the Tombstones, which managed just $12.7 million out of the gate.
Run All Night opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million
This Friday, Disney continues their new trend of bringing some of their most known animated tales to life with Cinderella. Thor director Kenneth Branagh helms the production with Lily James in the title role and Cate Blanchett as The Wicked Stepmother. Helena Bonham Carter and Stellan Skarsgard round out the cast.
After two ho-hum weekends, Cinderella seems poised to shake the box office out of its slump. Reviews have been very strong and it currently stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. With hardly any competition, expect Disney to experience a strong weekend.
This past summer, Maleficent with Angelina Jolie (a Sleeping Beauty retelling) opened at $69 million on its way to a $241 million overall domestic haul. I feel Cinderella will come quite close to that number.
Cinderella opening weekend prediction: $67.8 million
The box office sees three new entries in the marketplace this Friday: Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi action pic Chappie, the Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business, and comedy/drama sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Chappie not easily topping the charts, though I’m predicting its opening falls under director Blomkamp’s first two efforts, District 9 and Elysium.
I’m predicting Marigold Hotel will actually slightly outdo Business, which is bad news for the Vince Vaughn flick considering it opens on about twice as many screens.
As for holdovers, while Will Smith’s Focus was #1 for the weekend, its debut was lackluster and I expect it to fall in the mid 40s during sophomore weekend. Current #2 Kingsman: The Secret Service should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Focus
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. Unfinished Business
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)
As mentioned, Will Smith’s caper pic Focus managed a first place opening, but not many bragging rights. It opened at $18.6 million, a bit below my $21.3M forecast. This represents the star’s second worst opening in 13 years, behind only the $14.8 million premiere of Seven Pounds in 2008. Smith is simply not the box office draw he once was and Focus, with its mixed reviews, proved that.
Kingsman remained in second place with $11.8 million, ahead of my $9.8M projection. The comic book based hit stands at $85.8M so far.
The SpongeBob movie took third with $10.8 million, above my $9.3M prediction. Its total is at a strong $139.9M.
Fifty Shades of Grey dropped to fourth after two weeks on top of the charts with $10.5 million, right on target with my $10.4M estimate. The three week total is at $147.3M.
Finally, new horror offering The Lazarus Effect failed to generate much audience interest with a ho-hum $10.2 million opening, a bit under my $11.6M prediction.
Three years ago, we saw a sleeper hit with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, the British comedy/drama which earned an unanticipated $46 million domestically. That was enough to warrant a sequel which opens wide Friday. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel features returning cast members Judi Dench, Bill Nighy, Maggie Smith, and Dev Patel (who’s pulling double duty this weekend with Chappie). Richard Gere and David Strathairn also join the mix.
Reviews have been mostly positive so far as it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes, just under the 78% earned by its predecessor. John Madden (the director not the sports dude) is back behind the camera. It would seem likely that this second helping may not quite match the numbers of the 2012 original stateside, but I still envision a fairly decent opening. I have this debuting a little higher than Unfinished Business, the Vince Vaughn comedy that opens against it. That’s bad news for Business, considering it premieres on roughly twice as many screens.
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
Three comedy performers known for appearing in successful raunchy R rated comedies headline Unfinished Business, out Friday. They are Vince Vaughn, Dave Franco, and of course, Tom Wilkinson (??). The picture follows the trio on a European business trip gone wrong. Sienna Miller costars.
While Vaughn and Franco have been involved in genre hits like Wedding Crashers and Neighbors, it’s very hard to imagine this entry joining that company or doing anywhere near their box office numbers. Commercials for Business have done little to inspire confidence. Vaughn, meanwhile, has been on a bit of a losing streak lately. His reunion with Wedding Crashers costar Owen Wilson, The Internship, petered out at only $44 million domestically. His last pic Delivery Man only earned $7.9 million out of the gate.
I simply don’t see Unfinished Business doing anything other than lackluster business in its debut and believe it too will fail to reach double digits for its premiere.
Unfinished Business opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
Before he takes over the storied Alien franchise, District 9 and Elysium director Neill Blomkamp brings his next sci fi offering to audiences this Friday with Chappie. The robot centric picture features Blomkamp regular Sharlto Copley as well as recognizable faces like Hugh Jackman, Sigourney Weaver, and Dev Patel.
In 2009, the director broke through in a big way with District 9, the sleeper hit which ended up with a Best Picture nomination. District made $37 million out of the gate with an eventual domestic take of $115 million. His 2013 follow-up Elysium with Matt Damon didn’t quite live up to expectations, at the multiplex or critically. Elysium opened at $29 million with a final tally of $93 million.
I anticipate that Chappie will continue the trend of diminishing returns in Blomkamp’s filmography before it is certain to tick back up when he enters Alien world. Chappie hasn’t done enough to set itself apart with its trailers and TV spots. Still, it’s debut should easily be enough to open at #1, but I anticipate a premiere of under $25 million.
Chappie opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million
For my Unfinished Business prediction, click here:
Two new pictures look to open in first and second this weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s con artist tale Focus and horror flick The Lazarus Effect with Olivia Wilde debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I expect the Focus opening to not nearly be in line with your typical Will Smith action or science fiction extravaganza, but it should be enough to propel it to #1. Lazarus should see just over double digits, which I’ll predict will allow it the runner-up position.
As for holdovers, Fifty Shades of Grey experienced a massive drop-off in its sophomore weekend (more on that below). Its second to third weekend fall shouldn’t be quite as drastic, though I expect it’ll continue to lose more than half its audience. Kingsman: The Secret Service and SpongeBob should both experience percentage declines in the mid 40s and round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the coming weekend:
1. Focus
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. The Lazarus Effect
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
3. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (February 20-22)
Everyone expected Fifty Shades of Grey to experience a precipitous decline in weekend #2, but 74% is a lot. The picture stayed #1, however, with $22.2 million – below my estimate of $29.2M. The erotic tale has grossed $129.1M so far.
Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $18.3 million in its second weekend and I predicted… $18.3M! Gold star! The comic book adaptation has made $67M and looks to top the century club.
SpongeBob was third in its third frame with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.8M projection and its total stands at $126.2M.
Of the three newbies over the weekend, the Kevin Costner sports drama fared the best, as I predicted. It made $11 million, just outshining my $9.7M prediction. With a reported budget of only $17M, this was a solid result.
Teen comedy The DUFF, another low budget offering at just $12 million, also did commendable business with $10.8 million, above my $7.9M estimate.
Oscar nominee American Sniper earned $10 million (right under my $11.1M projection) and the gargantuan total for it is at $320M.
Finally, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 tanked with a tepid $5.9 million, not matching my $8.3M prediction. While the original is a cult hit, audiences clearly weren’t clamoring for a follow-up and highly negative reviews didn’t assist.
Relativity Media is hoping moviegoers are ready for some horror flick action as The Lazarus Effect debuts Friday. The supernatural pic features Olivia Wilde and Evan Peters from American Horror Story in its cast.
Lazarus is likely to be pretty much review proof, as most horror genre material is. Still it’s tough to see this really breaking through. The TV spots are decent, but not terribly effective and there seems to be a lack of buzz being generated.
This could really tank and open in the same range as Dark Skies from two years ago in late February. It managed just $8 million out of the gate. I think Lazarus will reach double digits, though not by a lot.
The Lazarus Effect opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 