This Friday, the latest romantic drama adapted from Nicholas Spark hits the screen with The Longest Ride. The film would love to get to the numbers accomplished by The Notebook, Dear John, and Safe Haven. Britt Robertson and Scott Eastwood headline with Jack Huston and Alan Alda in the supporting cast.
A good portion of the Sparks adaptations have done terrific business at the box office, but last year’s The Best of Me broke that streak with a tepid $10 million debut and eventual $35 million domestic gross. My gut tells me The Longest Ride is more likely to follow suit with that as opposed to blockbusters like 2013’s Safe Haven. It could perhaps open bigger as female counter programming to Furious 7‘s second weekend, but I’m doubtful.
I’ll predict this manages to outdo The Best of Me by a hair.
The Longest Ride opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
It’s Easter weekend at the box office and Furious 7, the seventh installment of the wildly popular Fast and Furious franchise, looks to set the all-time April opening weekend record and mark the largest debut of 2015 so far. My prediction has it managing both. My detailed prediction post can be read here:
With Furious being the only new player this weekend (any direct competitors smartly got out of the way), that just leaves holdovers. Dreamworks animated Home had a much higher premiere than anyone (especially me) anticipated. It should dip by the low 40s in its sophomore frame.
The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard also experienced a solid opening, but it looks poised for a heftier fall in weekend two. Insurgent and Cinderella should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend:
1. Furious 7
Predicted Gross: $117.4 million
2. Home
Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. Get Hard
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. Insurgent
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (March 27-29)
As mentioned, the animated Home surpassed everyone’s expectations with a stealthy $52.1 million debut, rocketing beyond my meager $24.6M projection. Clearly, family audiences were ready for something new and decided there was no place like Home this weekend.
Get Hard had a solid opening with $33.8 million, a bit above my $30.3M prediction. On the flip side, it earned a mediocre B Cinemascore grade and was savaged by critics, so it seems destined to fade pretty quickly.
Last week’s champ Insurgent fell to third with $21.5 million in weekend #2, a bit below my $24M estimate. It is currently lagging behind the pace that its predecessor Divergent accomplished and the two week total stands at $85 million.
Cinderella was fourth with $17 million, under my $19.1M projection. The Disney hit’s total is currently at $149 million.
The critically lauded indie horror pic It Follows opened fifth with a commendable $3.8 million on just 1200 screens, outpacing my $2.7M prediction.
In sixth was Kingsman: The Secret Service at $2.9 million, just under my $3.5M projection. Its total is at $119 million.
This Friday, the eagerly awaited Furious 7 looks to pass a number of box office milestones: biggest opening so far in 2o15 and highest debut of the fourteen year old franchise. Conjuring director James Wan takes over the series from Justin Lin.
The last two entries of the Fast and Furious series have brought the franchise to new heights. 2011’s Fast Five opened to $86.1 million with a final domestic tally of $209 million. Two years ago, Fast & Furious 6 topped that with a $97.3 million premiere and a $238 million eventual haul.
As tragic as it is, there is little doubt that star Paul Walker’s untimely death contributes to a curiosity factor here. This will be the last screen appearance of the actor as series regulars Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Michelle Rodriguez, Jordana Brewster, Tyrese Gibson, and Ludacris return. Kurt Russell and Jason Statham also join the party. Reviews have been quite strong and it sits at 86% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Furious 7 needs to surpass the $95 million that Captain America: The Winter Soldier made last year to post the largest April opening of all time. As I see it, it will blast past that mark with relative ease to earn that designation and set the franchise record in the meantime.
Furious 7 opening weekend prediction: $117.4 million
After it premiered in May 2014 at the Cannes Film Festival, the low budget indie horror flick It Follows received rave reviews, so much so that it stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a cast of unknowns and a director helming his first theatrical feature, Follows debuts in approximately 1200 theaters this Friday.
Its critical acclaim gives it the only real shot of breaking out at the box office. While reviews have deemed it terrifying, it is still tough to imagine that happening. The marketing campaign has been subdued and a better bet is the picture finding a cult following once it reaches VOD and cable.
I’ll predict a soft opening that will keep it outside the top five.
It Follows opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
The last week of March brings two titles to the multiplex that could easily place first and second: the Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard and Dreamworks animated flick Home. You can peruse my detailed projections on each of them here:
Get Hard should rule the weekend unless its quite negative reviews give it a softer opening (so to speak) than expected. Home should manage an OK debut for an animated pic.
As for holdovers, Insurgent opened a little lighter than anticipated and it should lose more than half its audience in weekend two, like predecessor Divergent did. Cinderella should place fourth in weekend #3 while nearly two month old Kingsman: The Secret Service may stay at the five spot.
And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top five:
1. Get Hard
Predicted Gross: $30.3 million
2. Home
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million
3. Insurgent
Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 25%)
Box Office Results (March 20-22)
As mentioned, YA sequel Insurgent came in a bit lower than expected with $52.2 million, under my generous $62.1M prediction and slightly under what Divergent accomplished a year ago. This is certainly not a huge letdown for the studio, but most prognosticators had this debuting higher than the original.
Cinderella dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $34.9 million, just below my $36.9M projection. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $122 million in ten days.
Liam Neeson’s action dud Run All Night was third in weekend #2 with $5 million, in line with my $5.6M estimate. It’s made just $19 million so far.
Neeson’s Taken director stumbled with The Gunman, Sean Penn’s action thriller which flopped with just $5 million out of the gate, below my $6.8M prediction.
Kingsman: The Secret Service managed to stay in the top five with $4.6 million. I incorrectly didn’t include it in the top five. Its total stands at $114 million.
Finally, faith based drama Do You Believe? bombed with a paltry $3.5 million for sixth place. Many similar themed pictures debuted to bigger than expected results in 2014 and I incorrectly believed this would, estimating a $12.3M opening. Oops.
Dreamworks Animation is hoping to have a kiddie hit on their hands as Home opens this Friday. The animated tale features the vocal work of Rihanna, Jennifer Lopez, Steve Martin and Jim Parsons and comes from Over the Hedge director Tim Johnson.
Lately, the animation wing of Dreamworks has seen some disappointments as both 2014’s Mr. Peabody and Sherman and How to Train Your Dragon 2 failed to match expectations. While there isn’t much in the way of family competition, with the exception of Cinderella’s third weekend, Home seems likely to perform just OK. I believe it’ll struggle to reach $25 million out of the gate.
The comedic stylists of Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart converge in Get Hard, the R rated entry that opens Friday. The two stars have been hitting the publicity circuit hard over the past few weeks. Both Ferrell and Hart have their legions of fans and their pairing should result in a solid debut. The premise sells itself with Hart teaching white collar Ferrell how to survive an upcoming prison stint. Alison Brie and rapper T.I. are among the supporting cast. Reviews have not been kind as it sits at only 22% on Rotten Tomatoes, but that shouldn’t hurt it too much.
I do not expect Get Hard to reach the current best $47 millon career best opening for Ferrell that was Talladega Nights or the $41 million that Hart reached last year for Ride Along. A premiere around $30 million seems the most likely scenario.
Get Hard opening weekend prediction: $30.3 million
For the second weekend in a row, a big budget blockbuster geared towards the female audience will likely dominate a B action movie with Liam Neeson connections. YA sequel Insurgent comes out a year following its predecessor Divergent and I have it debuting to even bigger numbers. The Gunman comes from the director of Neeson’s Taken and stars Sean Penn. The wild card newbie is faith based drama Do You Believe?, which could carry on the recent tradition of these types of pics premiering with larger than anticipated results. You can find detailed prediction posts on all three newcomers here:
As you can see, I expect Insurgent to easily top the charts. Disney’s live action Cinderella retelling should be #2 after its very strong rollout this past weekend (more on that below). I anticipate it’ll drop in the mid 40s range.
I have Do You Believe? posting healthier numbers than The Gunman, which has been the victim of some pretty brutal reviews so far. The underperforming Liam Neeson thriller Run All Night should round out the top five after its muted opening this last weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Insurgent
Predicted Gross: $62.1 million
2. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $36.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Do You Believe?
Predicted Gross: $12.3 millon
4. The Gunman
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
Well, call me the belle of the ball this weekend! Disney’s Cinderella got off to a terrific start with $67.8 million. My prediction? $67.8 million! Holla!! Female audiences turned out in droves for the acclaimed feature. Having a short film from the Frozen team airing before it probably didn’t hurt either.
The news was not near as good for Liam Neeson as Run All Night stumbled with just $11 million, a little short of my $12.1 million. Reviews were OK but having this arrive so soon after Taken 3 was probably a misstep.
Kingsman: The Secret Service was third and it’s posted solid holds from week to week. I incorrectly had its outside the top five but it earned $6.2 million to boost its current cume to $107 million.
Focus and Chappie each made $5.7 million for fourth and fifth, right around my respective projections of $5.6 million and $6.1 million. The Will Smith caper has made a middling $43 million while Chappie stands at a weak $23 million. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was sixth with $5.6 million, in line with my $6 million estimate. It’s made $18 million through two weeks.
And that will wrap it up for now…. Until next time!
From the filmmakers who brought you God’s Not Dead one year ago comes Do You Believe?, out this Friday. 2014 was a banner year for faith based pictures and Believe looks to continue the trend. The eclectic cast includes Sean Astin, Mira Sorvino, Ted McGinley, Cybill Shepherd, and Brian Bosworth. Wait… Brian Bosworth??
These faith based features have an ability to get congregations out to view them and that has assisted in most of them opening higher than anticipated. God’s Not Dead premiered to just over $9 million a year ago and on far less screens than Believe is slated to. One month later, Heaven is for Real debuted to $22 million. Movies like this are more or less critic proof, so that shouldn’t be a factor.
I do believe that Do You Believe? will open to low double digits, but it could go higher.
Do You Believe? opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million
After winning two Oscars in the previous decade, Sean Penn tries to go all Liam Neeson mode in The Gunman, out Friday. The action thriller actually comes from the maker of the original Taken, Pierre Morel. Idris Elba, Javier Bardem, and Ray Winstone costar.
If something like Neeson’s own Run All Night can’t make much dough, it’s difficult to see this making an impact. Reviews have been highly negative so far and there’s nothing in its advertisements that set it apart from typical genre fare. It could perhaps benefit from catering to the male audience with the female audience flocking to Insurgent and Cinderella, but I doubt it.
I’ll predict The Gunman doesn’t reach double digits and fades away to the VOD screen soon enough.
The Gunman opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
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