Just so there’s zero confusion, it’s not MartinScorsese’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral debuting next weekend. No, this would be the latest Tyler Perry effort from the writer/director/star and it’s said to be the final pic with the Madea moniker.
Originally slated to open last fall, Funeral looks to bring in Perry’s consistent crowd one more time. It’s likely to succeed. Let’s take a trip down Madea memory lane with the premiere weekends of each one featuring that name:
Madea’sFamilyReunion (2006) – $30 million
MadeaGoestoJail (2009) – $41 million
Madea’sBigHappyFamily (2011) – $25 million
Madea’sWitnessProtection (2012) – $25 million
AMadeaChristmas (2013) – $16 million
Boo! AMadeaHalloween (2016) – $28 million
Boo2! AMadeaHalloween (2017) – $21 million
Christmas is a bit of an outlier since it came out in the bustling holiday frame when titles often open somewhat low and leg out. A common theme with this franchise is front loaded first weekends that frequently represent nearly half the overall domestic gross.
I see no reason why Funeral wouldn’t top $20 million out of the gate and I’ll put it in range with what Boo2! achieved, going a tad higher.
Todd Thatcher’s A TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million
Tyler’s Perry Madea character looks to say hello to the #1 spot again next weekend when Boo 2! A Madea Halloween debuts. As is the case with these ventures, the star both directs and writes. Costars include Cassi Davis and Patrice Lovely.
On this same weekend last year, A Madea Halloween opened a bit above expectations with $28 million, ruling the box office for two weeks and grossing $73 million overall. The uptick was a bit of a surprise since the previous holiday themed pic A Madea Christmas earned the lowest opening ($16M) of the six flicks carrying the Madea moniker and lowest overall domestic gross ($52M).
Last October proved audiences still had love for the character and I don’t see that subsiding much here. Sequelitis may come into small effect, but a smallish decline of close to 20% under its predecessor still gets this in the low to mid 20s and that should be good enough for the top spot.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
Three more titles make their way to the big screen this weekend as the critically lauded sci-fi pic Arrival, holiday dramedy Almost Christmas, and Naomi Watts led horror thriller Shut In debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
After the massive opening of Marvel’s Doctor Strange, it appears unlikely that any of the newbies will prevent it from a second weekend atop the charts (unless Arrival majorly over performs). Benedict Cumberbatch and company should drop in the mid 50s, which should be more than good enough for box office domination.
The real battle could be for the #2 spot as Trolls may not even lose 40% of its audience from its impressive premiere. That could leave it and Arrival in close range for runner-up status. However, the somewhat low 2200 screen count for the Amy Adams tale could push its gross to low to mid 20s.
I’m expecting Almost Christmas will have a merry 4th place debut in the high teens with Hacksaw Ridge rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
My meager Shut In prediction at $5.7 million leaves it outside the top 5 and likely in the 6th spot.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my opening weekend takes on the newbies:
Arrival – 41% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 24% Too High
Almost Christmas – 46% Just About Right, 31% Too Low, 23% Too High
Shut In – 60% Just About Right, 40% Too Low, 0% Too High
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the busy weekend ahead:
1. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $37.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
3. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
4. Almost Christmas
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (November 4-6)
As predicted, Doctor Strange posted the 10th highest debut (out of 14) of the Marvel Cinematic Universe thus far, though it managed to top my estimate. The well-reviewed superhero origin tale brought in a terrific $85 million compared to my $77.3M prognosis for what is surely another franchise for the studio.
Dreamworks Animation has reason to smile as Trolls also exceeded expectations to the tune of $46.5 million (ahead of my $34.6M estimate) for a hair raising second place debut. Look for this to play well throughout the month and reach an eventual domestic gross close to $150M.
And the third newcomer of the weekend also performed solidly as Mel Gibson’s acclaimed war drama Hacksaw Ridge made $15.1 million (outpacing my $12.1M projection). The pic stands a good chance of playing well throughout awards season.
After two weeks unexpectedly at #1, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween fell to fourth with $7.7 million. My prediction? $7.7M! It’s earned $64M total.
Inferno continued to its ice cold performance in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $6.8M) to bring its tally to just $25M.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The month of November begins at the box office with the infusion of some likely blockbusters to lift the current fall season out of its doldrums. We have three new pics that should populate the top 3 spots: Marvel’s critically acclaimed Doctor Strange, Dreamworks animated Trolls, and Mel Gibson’s World War II drama Hacksaw Ridge. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
There’s little doubt that Disney/Marvel will rule the weekend with their new superhero. The question is just how big it will be. My estimate gives it the 10th out of 14th largest opener for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, between Thor: The Dark World and the first Thor.
While Strange should hammer all competition, I’ve got those frizzy haired Trolls capturing a sizable family audience for a sturdy runner-up showing.
As for Hacksaw, the well-reviewed pic could over perform, but I’ve got it slated for a low double digits debut (though it may play well throughout awards season).
When it comes to holdovers, I look for Boo! A Madea Halloween and Inferno (which bombed this past weekend; more on that below) to experience sizable dips and fall to fourth and fifth.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my prognoses:
DoctorStrange – 47% Just About Right, 36% Too Low, 17% Too High
Trolls – 55% Just About Right, 26% Too Low, 19% Too High
HacksawRidge – 65% Too Low, 27% Just About Right, 8% Too High
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $77.3 million
2. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $34.6 million
3. Hacksaw Ridge
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Boo! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)
5. Inferno
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (October 28-30)
In a seriously surprising box office upset, Boo! A Madea Halloween remained atop the charts for a second weekend in a row with $17.2 million, well ahead of my $12.7M projection. The Tyler Perry hit has amassed $52 million so far and looks to easily become the 2nd highest grossing Madea titled pic after 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail.
The upset is due to the massive under performance of Inferno, the third teaming of Tom Hanks and Ron Howard based on Dan Brown’s novels. The film absolutely tanked with just $14.8 million, less than half of my extremely generous $30.6M prediction. This franchise started a decade ago to great results with The Da Vinci Code and still produced decent results in 2011 with Angels & Demons. While Inferno is performing better overseas, you can bet this is the last time we’ll see Mr. Hanks cracking codes.
In another Tom led box office disappointment, Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back fell hard in weekend #2 with $9.5 million (I was higher with a $12.4M forecast). Its meager earnings stand at $39 million.
I fared a bit better with the rest of the top five. The Accountant was fourth with $8.4 million (I said $8.7M) for a $61 million total. Ouija: Origin of Evil was fifth with $7.1 million (I said $7.3M) for a $24 million tally.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
For the previous two weekends at the box office, we’ve seen a total of seven features roll out in wide release. As the final frame of October is upon us, we just have one to close the month out – Inferno. This is the third teaming of director Ron Howard with Tom Hanks in adapting Dan Brown’s Robert Langdon novels to the screen. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While Inferno should have no trouble debuting at #1, just how much it makes is a legit question. I’ve got it pegged at just over $30M, though my blog readers tend to disagree with 64% saying my prediction is Too High. 23% think I’m Just About Right with 13% believing I’m Too Low.
As for holdovers, Boo! A Madea Halloween had a much larger than anticipated debut last weekend (more on that below). Similar Madea titles that opened in the same range dropped about 60% in their second weekend. Could Halloween dip a bit lower since, you know, this is Halloween weekend coming up? Perhaps, but probably not by much.
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back should lose close to half its audience. Same for Ouija. The Accountant in weekend #3 has been experiencing good worth of mouth and its drop may not be quite as pronounced (I have it leaping over Evil).
And with that – the top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Inferno
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. Boo! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)
3. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. Ouija: Origin of Evil
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 48%)
Box Office Results (October 21-23)
In an unexpected box office twist, Tyler Perry outpaced Tom Cruise this weekend as Boo! A Madea Halloween scored a terrific debut with $28.5 million, more than double my meager $12.5M estimate. This marks the third highest debut for a Madea titled pic and ensures this character will be having other holiday fun (Thanksgiving’s probably next) into the future.
It was expected to top the charts, but Madea blocked that as Jack Reacher: Never Go Back debuted in second with $22.8 million (just below my $23.9M estimate). The Tom Cruise sequel suffered from middling reviews and it was following up a predecessor that isn’t exactly beloved. It should struggle to make the $80M earned by the first Reacher and it probably won’t.
Ouija: Origin of Evil didn’t scare up as much business as its predecessor, taking in $14 million for third place (I predicted $15.2M). With a lackluster C Cinemascore grade (same as the first one), it should fade fast, but may not have too calamitous a drop next weekend due to the Halloween holiday.
With all the newbies premiering, The Accountant slipped to fourth with $13.6 million. My prediction? $13.6M! At least I got something right this weekend! Its total stands at $47M.
The Girl on the Train was fifth with $7.1 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The thriller has grossed $58M in three weeks.
The Zack Galifianakis led comedy Keeping Up with Joneses had to settle for seventh place with a poor $5.4 million, well below my $10.1M forecast. It actually performed worse than the star’s comedy from earlier this month, Masterminds.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
It’s a particularly crowded weekend at the box office with four new wide releases hitting the multiplexes and another in semi-wide release. We have Tom Cruise’s action sequel Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, horror prequel Ouija: Origin of Evil, and the Zach Galifianakis led comedy (his second this month) Keeping Up with the Joneses. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
To add to the clutter, there’s also the faith-based drama I’m Not Ashamed, which debuts on around 500 screens. I’ve got it pegged at $2 million for its start.
So how will all this shake out? Well, it’s probable that the four newbies will all land in the top 5. I have Reacher rather easily winning the weekend with Ouija as the runner-up. The Accountant (which had a solid debut in the top spot this past weekend) could fall to third with Boo! and Joneses rounding out the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers see my picks for the newcomers:
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back: 50% Too Low, 41% Just About Right, 9% Too High
Ouija: Origin of Evil: 46% Just About Right, 27%, Too High, 27% Too Low
Boo! A Madea Halloween: 33% Too High, 33% Too Low, 33% Just About Right (how about that?!?!)
Keeping Up with the Joneses: 46% Too Low, 39% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Truth be told, this weekend is pretty unpredictable with all the fresh product coming our way. Let’s see what happens, but here’s how I have the top 5:
1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
Predicted Gross: $23.9 million
2. Ouija: Origin of Evil
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
3. The Accountant
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Boo! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Keeping Up with the Joneses
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (October 14-16)
The numbers were quite good for Ben Affleck’s The Accountant as it scored a #1 opening with $24.7 million, easily topping my $17.6M prediction. Even though reviews were quite mixed, audiences liked what they saw it scored an A Cinemascore grade.
The Girl on the Train dipped to second in its sophomore weekend with a 50% drop to $12.2 million (a bit under my $13.4M projection). The Emily Blunt thriller has taken in $46 million thus far.
The stand-up comedy concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now? debuted in third with a decent $11.7 million, not quite matching my $13.5M estimate.
Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children was fourth with $8.9 million (I said $8.2M) to bring its tally to $65 million. Deepwater Horizon rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.8M) and it’s made $49 million.
Last (and least), Max Steel was met with a massive shrug from audience as it opened in 11th place with $2.1 million. I went a bit higher with $3.8M. Look for this one On Demand quite soon.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Tyler Perry just can’t seem to quit his signature Madea character, even though the franchise’s fortunes have dwindled in recent years. And so it is that Boo! A Madea Halloween hits multiplexes next weekend.
This is the ninth (yes, ninth) pic to feature the tough talking granny and sixth to bear her name. Let’s take a look at the numbers for the previous four. 2009’s Madea Goes to Jail was the high mark with a $41 million opening and $90M overall domestic haul. Both 2011’s Madea’s Big Happy Family and 2012’s Madea’s Witness Protection made $25 million out of the gate and then grossed $53M and $65M, respectively. Yet it slowed down a bit with the last one – 2013’s holiday themed A Madea Christmas, which earned $16 million for its roll out and ended with $52M.
The three year lay-off of Madea sightings could hinder this one a bit more and continue the downward trend. After all, if a Christmas pic featuring the character under performed, this likely doesn’t bode well for Halloween Madea. I’ll say low double digits to low teens is all Boo! manages to scare up.
Boo! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million
For my Jack Reacher: Never Go Back prediction, click here:
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