March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction

Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction

The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…