October 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Tom Hardy is back in the threequel Venom: The Last Dance while awards hopeful Conclave also debuts Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the weekend’s newcomers here:

Venom: The Last Dance Box Office Prediction

Conclave Box Office Prediction

Hardy’s latest go-round as the comic book symbiote will easily dominate the charts. Yet I’m not bullish that The Last Dance will top the openings of predecessors Venom from 2018 ($80 million) and 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90 million). I have it in the low to mid 60s.

Conclave is expected to nab a Best Picture nomination. Edward Berger’s follow-up to All Quiet on the Western Front may have to settle for a mid single digits start that should put it in fourth or fifth place.

As for holdovers, Smile 2 may benefit from its genre in weekend #2 as horror fans seek content. The first Smile rode a wave of loud buzz to a startling 18% decline in its second frame. I’d be surprised if the sequel sees that, but mid to high 30s seems feasible. The Wild Robot and Terrifier 3 should fill out the remainder of the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $62.3 million

2. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

4. Terrifier 3

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Conclave

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (October 18-20)

Smile 2 was barely able to open wider than part 1 at $23 million. The original hit $22.6 million two years later. I had this making slightly more at $27 million. That’s a fair result though (as mentioned above) I wouldn’t expect this to have quite the sturdy legs of what came before.

The Wild Robot held in second with $10 million, on par with my $10.7 million forecast. The animated adventure is now north of nine digits after four weeks with $101 million.

Terrifier 3 slid from first to third with $9.3 million, in line with my $9.8 million call. The $38 million total in ten days is quite a feat considering the reported teensy $2 million price tag.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was fourth with $5 million (I went with $5.8 million) for a seven-week haul of $283 million and $300 million potentially in its domestic sights.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh rom dram We Live in Time expanded to just under 1000 venues and posted $4.1 million. I was close with $4.3 million. That brought the overall tally to $4.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…