Toronto Gets Real About American Fiction

The Toronto Film Festival has wrapped and our friends up north have bestowed their People Choice’s Award along with the first and second runner-ups. Just how important is this prize in correlating to a Best Picture spot at the Oscars? Let’s go to the numbers and they’re telling.

Of the last 15 People’s Choice winners from TIFF, 14 received a BP nomination and 5 of them ultimately took the big prize: 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and 2020’s Nomadland.

When it comes to the 1st and 2nd runners-up, 10 of them in the past 15 cycles have received BP attention. That includes three winners in 2012’s Argo, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2019’s Parasite.

So… it’s a key harbinger to Academy attention. And that’s why it’s a tad surprising that Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut American Fiction is the pick. That’s not because it didn’t get great reviews (it’s at 96% via 24 write-ups on RT). It just snuck up on prognosticators like myself with the TIFF love (there’s not even a trailer yet). The dramedy focused on race relations is now undeniably a factor in awards discussions as it moves towards its November 3rd debut. Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance and the Adapted Screenplay are also in the mix for attention.

The first runner-up, unsurprisingly, is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (which many were picking to receive People’s Choice). For Payne, it’s looked at as a return to form after his underwhelming predecessor Downsizing in 2017. This 1970s set Christmas tale appears poised for possible nods in BP (joining earlier Payne efforts Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska) and Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and certainly Original Screenplay.

The Boy and the Heron is Hayao Miyazaki’s latest acclaimed animated feature which opened TIFF. It’s pretty much a given that this will contend in Best Animated Feature though it could be a tall order to overcome frontrunner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Here are the facts: TIFF has boosted Fiction in a serious way. Keep an eye on the blog for further Oscar Predictions updates!