February 24-26 Box Office Predictions

While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania should easily stay in the number one spot, Cocaine Bear looks for a strong #2 showing and Jesus Revolution hopes to rise above expectations. They are the newcomers this weekend and my detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:

Cocaine Bear has generated buzz since its trailer (and honestly the title reveal). It could blow past my low teens estimate, but I do believe the appeal might be somewhat limited.

Jesus Revolution, as other faith-based dramas have, could exceed my sub double digits projection. A third place showing seems likely. If it does surpass my prognosis and Cocaine comes in under mine, a battle for the runner-up position is feasible.

Quantumania opened in its expected range and crawled ahead of my estimate (more on that below). It also received a troubling Cinemascore grade of B (tying the lowest for the MCU with Eternals). That should mean a sophomore drop in the mid to high 60s (similar to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder from last year) is coming.

Holiday holdovers Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should round out the top five. Here’s how I envision it:

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

As anticipated, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania commanded the long President’s Day frame with $120.3 million from Friday to Monday. That’s ahead of my $109.1 million estimate. That easily makes for the best start to the three Ant pics (as was expected). Per above, the second weekend dip should be substanial.

Avatar: The Way of Water held in second with $8 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. The mega-sequel has amassed $659 million domestically.

The sequel love continued with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at $7 million in third, slashing past my $5.8 million take. Total is $167 million.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance dropped from 1st to 4th though it doubled its theater count from approximately 1500 to over 3000. It made $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) for overall earnings of $18 million.

Knock at the Cabin was fifth and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. With $4.6 million, the three-week gross is $31 million.

Finally, 80 for Brady was sixth with $4.5 million compared to my $4.2 million guesstimate. The octogenarian comedy is up to $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! In case you didn’t know, I’ve started a podcast where you can hear my box office and Oscar predictions and the link for it is below. Until next time…


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