**Blogger’s Update (02/03): There are reports that the film is only releasing on around 1500 screens. Therefore I am revising my estimate down significantly from $17.7M to $10.7M. If the theater count changes, I will update accordingly.
A decade after they turned a meagerly budgeted $7 million dramedy into a $100M+ hit, Magic Mike’s Last Dance is the third iteration (or gyration) of Steven Soderbergh and Channing Tatum’s franchise. The former returns to direct after sitting out 2015’s sequel Magic Mike XXL after helming the 2012 original. The latter is back in the role that turned him into a superstar. His costars from the first two are MIA, but Salma Hayek Pinault, Ayub Khan Din, and Caitlin Gerard join the fun.
After being absent onscreen for several years, Tatum returned to multiplexes in 2022 with his directorial debut Dog ($61 million domestic gross) and The Lost City alongside Sandra Bullock ($105 million stateside). Last Dance was originally slated for an HBO Max premiere before Warner Bros opted for the theatrical output.
It’s worth noting that Magic Mike XXL couldn’t match part 1. The 2012 model made $113 million. XXL generated half of that with $66 million. The diminishing returns could continue unless female moviegoers are feeling especially nostalgic. That’s possible, but I’m skeptical. Some of that demographic may opt for the Titanic re-release instead. Low teens is probably the floor and I don’t believe this surpasses $20 million out of the gate.
Magic Mike’s Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
For my Titanic 25th Anniversary prediction, click here:
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