The holiday titles begin to roll in this weekend as family adventure sequel Jumanji: The Next Level, horror remake Black Christmas, and Clint Eastwood’s true life drama Richard Jewell debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/04/jumanji-the-next-level-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/05/black-christmas-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/06/richard-jewell-box-office-prediction/
There’s no doubt that Jumanji will end the three-week reign of Frozen II atop the charts. The 2017 predecessor became a phenomenon for Sony and eventually legged out to become the studio’s highest domestic earner of all time. Estimates have the inevitable sequel making between $40-$50 million out of the gate and I have it on the higher end of that range. Level hopes to earn a nice chunk of cash right away with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker on deck next weekend.
As for the other newbies, Christmas and Jewell could be in a close race for #3. Horror titles always have the opportunity to exceed expectations, but I’ll give Christmas low teens and Eastwood’s latest just under that.
With a mid 40s dip, Frozen II should fall to second with Knives Out rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Jumanji: The Next Level
Predicted Gross: $48.7 million
2. Frozen II
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
3. Black Christmas
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Richard Jewell
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Knives Out
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
Box Office Results (December 6-8)
Per usual, it was a rather quiet post Thanksgiving frame as Frozen II easily held the top spot for the third time. The Disney sequel took in $35.1 million, falling a bit more than my $41.3 million projection. Its tally is up to $338 million.
Knives Out stayed put in second with $14.2 million, not matching my $16.4 million estimate for a two-week take of $63 million.
Ford v Ferrari was third with $6.6 million (I said $7.5 million) as it nears the century mark with $91 million.
Queen & Slim also made $6.6 million (I said $6.7 million) in its sophomore frame for a $27 million total.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood was fifth and it’s not experiencing the minor declines that many (myself included) anticipated. It made $5.2 million compared to my $7.2 million forecast for an unimpressive $43 million.
The Mark Ruffalo drama Dark Waters expanded wide and was sixth with $3.9 million, on pace with my $3.7 million prediction. Total is $5 million.
Last and most certainly least, critically drubbed animated effort Playmobil: The Movie was an absolute disaster. Opening in 14th place, it made $656,000. I was far more generous at $2.8 million. For those keeping score, that’s a $281 per theater average.
And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…
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