October 25-27 Box Office Predictions

The end of October at the box office looks to be a rather quiet one as holdovers should dominate. There are three newcomers to consider: techie horror pic Countdown, action thriller Black and Blue, and long delayed historical drama The Current War. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/16/countdown-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/17/black-and-blue-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/20/the-current-war-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get Current out of the way first, shall we? Theater count is still uncertain and that might change my estimate, but my measly $1.7 million prediction leaves the former Weinstein Company property well outside of the top five.

Same goes for Blue with my $4.8 million projection as I don’t see much buzz for it either. Countdown should have no trouble being the largest grossing newcomer, but my barely double digits forecast has it rounding out the top five.

I whiffed on predicting that Joker would hold onto the top position for the third frame in a row over Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. While Disney claimed the #1 spot, it did so in an unimpressive fashion (more on that below). I do think Evil and Joker will be closer this weekend, but I’ll give Angelina a slight edge over Joaquin this time around.

Zombieland should stay third with The Addams Family in fourth. Due to the upcoming Halloween frame, the latter may experience the smallest decline of the bunch.

And with that, my vision of the weekend ahead:

1. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. Zombieland: Double Tap 

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. The Addams Family

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Countdown 

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

Box Office Results (October 18-20)

Disney’s streak of live action renderings of their animated catalog topping the charts didn’t end this weekend as Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was first with results that weren’t magical. It grossed $36.9 million and while that did exceed my $32.3 million prediction, that’s way under the $69 million achieved by its 2014 predecessor.

Joker slipped to second and lost more volume than I anticipated with $29.2 million compared to my $34.2 million forecast. It’s up to an astonishing $247 million and is already #9 on the list of biggest R rated earners.

Zombieland: Double Tap matched most expectations in third with $26.8 million, shooting past my $23.7 million projection. That’s a slight improvement over the near $25 million that its 2009 predecessor made, but not really when accounting for inflation.

The Addams Family was fourth with $16.3 million (I said $18.4 million) for a two-week tally of $57 million.

Will Smith’s flop Gemini Man was fifth and tumbled nearly 60% in its sophomore frame to $8.3 million, just below my $9.4 million take. Total is $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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