Blogger’s Note (08/14/18): On the eve of its opening, I’m upgrading my Crazy Rich Asians estimate to low 20s and mid 30s for the three and five-day. That now gives it the #1 spot.
A trio of newcomers attempt to bite into the unexpected huge performance of The Meg and it keep it from a second frame atop the charts. We have critically acclaimed rom com Crazy Rich Asians, Mark Wahlberg’s action thriller Mile 22, and Ice Age adventure Alpha. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/crazy-rich-asians-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/mile-22-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/alpha-box-office-prediction/
Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. I don’t expect much from Alpha at all and my $5.2 million projection leaves it outside of the top five.
Even if The Meg falls over 50% in its second frame, it could still maintain the top spot with a gross in the low 20s.
However, that’s if Crazy Rich Asians doesn’t manage those numbers. My estimate has steadily risen, but its Wednesday opening could prevent it from hitting #1 (I’ve got it awfully close). Mile 22 should place third in the mid teens for a so-so start.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout should drop to fourth. The five-spot could be interesting as I have Christopher Robin and BlacKkKlansman grossing roughly the same amount.
And with that, here’s my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
3. Mile 22
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Christopher Robin
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
6. BlacKkKlansman
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 10-12)
The Meg turned out to have the quite the mega opening stateside with $45.4 million, doubling (yes DOUBLING) my meager $22.7 million estimate. Never bet against sharks apparently. The shark tale performed well overseas as well, which was needed considering its reported $150 million plus budget.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was runner-up with $19.3 million (a tad below my $21.3 million prediction) for $161 million in its three weeks of release.
Christopher Robin was third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.8 million estimate. The Disney pic has made $50 million in two weeks.
Critically reviled horror flick Slender Man was fourth, debuting to $11.3 million (a couple notches above my take of $9.1 million). Look for it (with a D- Cinemascore grade) to fade quickly.
Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, with terrific reviews and awards buzz, started out strong on just over 1500 screens in fifth with $10.8 million (I said $9.6 million).
Finally, Dog Days premiered to totally unimpressive numbers in just 12th place with $2.5 million. I gave it way too much credit at $5.1 million. Woof.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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