A Dog’s Way Home Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping A Dog’s Way Home will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made Dolphin Tale and its sequel, directs.

When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, A Dog’s Purpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, Megan Leavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, Dog Days managed just $2.5 million.

My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.

A Dog’s Way Home opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my The Upside prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/the-upside-box-office-prediction/

For my Replicas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/03/replicas-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 17-19

Blogger’s Note (08/14/18): On the eve of its opening, I’m upgrading my Crazy Rich Asians estimate to low 20s and mid 30s for the three and five-day. That now gives it the #1 spot.

A trio of newcomers attempt to bite into the unexpected huge performance of The Meg and it keep it from a second frame atop the charts. We have critically acclaimed rom com Crazy Rich Asians, Mark Wahlberg’s action thriller Mile 22, and Ice Age adventure Alpha. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/crazy-rich-asians-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/mile-22-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/alpha-box-office-prediction/

Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. I don’t expect much from Alpha at all and my $5.2 million projection leaves it outside of the top five.

Even if The Meg falls over 50% in its second frame, it could still maintain the top spot with a gross in the low 20s.

However, that’s if Crazy Rich Asians doesn’t manage those numbers. My estimate has steadily risen, but its Wednesday opening could prevent it from hitting #1 (I’ve got it awfully close). Mile 22 should place third in the mid teens for a so-so start.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout should drop to fourth. The five-spot could be interesting as I have Christopher Robin and BlacKkKlansman grossing roughly the same amount.

And with that, here’s my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

3. Mile 22

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

6. BlacKkKlansman

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 10-12)

The Meg turned out to have the quite the mega opening stateside with $45.4 million, doubling (yes DOUBLING) my meager $22.7 million estimate. Never bet against sharks apparently. The shark tale performed well overseas as well, which was needed considering its reported $150 million plus budget.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was runner-up with $19.3 million (a tad below my $21.3 million prediction) for $161 million in its three weeks of release.

Christopher Robin was third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.8 million estimate. The Disney pic has made $50 million in two weeks.

Critically reviled horror flick Slender Man was fourth, debuting to $11.3 million (a couple notches above my take of $9.1 million). Look for it (with a D- Cinemascore grade) to fade quickly.

Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, with terrific reviews and awards buzz, started out strong on just over 1500 screens in fifth with $10.8 million (I said $9.6 million).

Finally, Dog Days premiered to totally unimpressive numbers in just 12th place with $2.5 million. I gave it way too much credit at $5.1 million. Woof.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 10-12

***Blogger’s Note II (08/09/18): A big change has happened. I am revising my estimate for The Meg up to $22.7 million, therefore giving it the #1 spot. I am also increasing my BlacKkKlansman estimate once again from $7.6M to $9.6M

**Blogger’s Note (08/08/18): I have revised my BlacKkKlansman estimate from $5.6M to $7.6M, which gives it the #5 spot and drops The Spy Who Dumped Me outside the top five.

A quartet of newbies attempt to dethrone Tom Cruise this weekend as shark tale The Meg, Internet meme based horror pic Slender Man, canine tale Dog Days, and Spike Lee’s awards hopeful BlacKkKlansman all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/the-meg-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/slender-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/dog-days-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/03/blackkklansman-box-office-prediction/

Of the four newcomers, The Meg appears poised to earn the most. Audiences have proven they dig their shark flicks and the upside here is real. However, my high teens projection leaves it behind Mission: ImpossibleFallout and that would give Cruise and company a third weekend atop the charts.

Slender Man is a real question mark. Its studio doesn’t seem to have much faith in it, but horror titles can often surprise. I’m definitely at the lower end of expectations currently with a forecast in the high single digits. That would leave it lurking in fourth place behind Christopher Robin. 

The five-spot depends on how the other two newcomers perform. Dog Days is opening on Wednesday and my $5.1 million estimate for its Friday to Sunday performance leaves it behind the $5.6 million I’m predicting for BlacKkKlansman (which certainly could go higher). That leaves both of them behind the second frame of The Spy Who Dumped Me, which should drop in the mid 40s range.

It’s an unpredictable weekend we have before us, but here’s how I have the top 5 looking:

1. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

2. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross:$13.8 million

4. BlacKkKlansman

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. Slender Man

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

***If these numbers change throughout the week, I’ll post updates!

Box Office Results (August 3-5) 

Mission: Impossible – Fallout had a terrific hold in weekend #2, dropping just 42% to gross $35.3 million (above my $32 million projection) and remain #1. The sixth installment of Tom Cruise’s franchise has amassed $124 million so far.

Disney’s Christopher Robin came in on the bottom end of expectations in the runner-up position with $24.5 million compared to my more generous $29.6 million estimate. Winnie the Pooh and company will hope for small declines in coming weekends.

The Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me also debuted on the low-end of the expected scale in third with just $12.1 million, under my $15.3 million forecast.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.3 million) for $91 million in three weeks.

I mistakenly left The Equalizer 2 out of the top five, but it was fifth with $8.7 million. The Denzel Washington sequel has made $79 million and looks to potentially top the $101 million earned by its predecessor.

Hotel Transylvania 3 was sixth with $8 million (I was lower at $6.9 million) and it’s earned $136 million overall. The franchise has shown remarkable consistency and I’d look for a fourth installment in about three years.

Finally, YA adaptation The Darkest Minds suffered a bad opening in 8th place with $5.8 million, in line with my $6.3 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Dog Days Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/01/18): I am revising my estimate due to the film’s release on Wednesday next week, not Friday from $6.4 million down to $5.1 million.

An ensemble of familiar actors and an ensemble of canines come together for the family dramedy Dog Days, which hits theaters next weekend. The film is directed by Ken Marino, who last made the successful comedy How to Be a Latin Lover. Cast members include Eva Longoria, Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Lauren Lapkus, Thomas Lennon, Adam Pally, Rob Corddry, Tig Notaro, and Finn Wolfhard.

Movies dealing with man’s best friend can certainly post pleasing results, like Marley and Me and A Dog’s Purpose. Yet I don’t see Dog Days achieving their grosses. Its upstart studio LD Entertainment doesn’t exactly have a strong track record producing hits. A better comp here could be this May’s Show Dogs, which debuted to just $6 million.

I’ll say this manages to just outdo that number.

Dog Days opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Meg prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/the-meg-box-office-prediction/

For my Slender Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/slender-man-box-office-prediction/

For my BlacKkKlansman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/03/blackkklansman-box-office-prediction/