For the better part of the past decade, Tom Cruise has been busy reprising iconic roles from the 80s and 90s in three Mission: Impossible pics and the mega-grossing Top Gun: Maverick. On October 2nd, he’s out of action star and stunt making mode and headlining the satire Digger. Caked in makeup and playing an eccentric billionaire, Alejandro G. Iñárritu (double Oscar winner for Birdman and The Revenant) directs. The supporting cast includes Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons.
The review embargo lifts next week, but early social media chatter indicates this will draw wildly diverse reactions. Cruise, as we’ve grown accustomed to, is promoting this change of pace black comedy with gusto. However, the mixed word-of-mouth could limit its potential
UPDATE (09/29): The review embargo has lifted and it’s NOT good news for Cruise and company. My initial projection in the high teens has now plummeted to low double digits.
With a reported $125 million price tag, Digger needs impressive numbers domestically and overseas. I suspect the stateside earnings may be far from groundbreaking. While some estimates have this topping $20 million, I’m projecting a premiere below Cruise’s last non-sequel. That was back in 2017 when American Made kicked off with just under $17 million. Digger may fare worse and my barely double digits estimate would classify it as a notable bomb considering the reported $125 million price tag.
In 1996, Frances McDormand brilliantly crafted her signature role with Fargo and earned a well deserved Oscar for it. Martin McDonagh’s ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri gives the actress another part that’s right up there in terms of one she’ll be remembered for. Like Fargo, it’s a picture involving grisly crimes with a comedic sensibility set to charcoal. Unlike her Marge Gunderson from 21 years past, Mildred Hayes displays the opposite of the former’s sunny disposition in the midst of tragedy.
There’s good reason for it. Her daughter was brutally raped and murdered seven months ago. Frustrated with the lack of progress in the case and the small town police force investigating it, she plunks down some cash for a trio of billboards on the remote road leading to her home. These signs clearly express her displeasure, particularly with Sheriff Willoughby (Woody Harrelson). The local news media takes notice, as do Ebbing’s residents. The majority of them view it as an unnecessary stunt.
Mildred is a woman on a mission to get answers and her narrow focus puts her at odds with the Sheriff. A lesser screenplay may have made Willoughby a local yokel. Yet he’s written as a multi-layered man with Harrelson expertly portraying him. If there’s a law enforcement figure to root against, it’s Sam Rockwell’s Dixon. He’s known for racist tendencies and a general lack of skill in his job. And even McDonagh’s script takes him in unexpected directions that make him far from a caricature.
The promise that celebrated Irish playwright McDonagh showed with his debut InBruges ebbed a bit with his follow-up SevenPsychopaths. The third time is easily the darkly charming triumph of his cinematic career. Billboards takes you in unforeseen directions not unlike what Fargo accomplished.
Much credit is due to the casting. McDormand, Harrelson, and Rockwell all give nomination worthy performances. The superb acting filters to the supporting players – from Mildred’s temperamental ex-husband (John Hawkes) and his dingbat 19 year-old girlfriend (Samara Weaving). Lucas Hedges is their exasperated son, left mourning his sister and seeing the constant reminders of her death to and from home. Caleb Landry Jones is memorable as the poor guy who must approve Mildred’s messages. He’s been a standout twice before this year with GetOut and AmericanMade. Peter Dinklage turns up as a used car salesman with an eye for our heroine. Sandy Martin’s makes the most of her limited screentime as Dixon’s mama. We certainly see where he gets his lesser traits from.
ThreeBillboards is special. I was truly taken with its ability to be hilarious and touching simultaneously. It doesn’t allow its main characters to be simple. The screenplay is too intelligent to play them as wholly virtuous or completely evil. Everyone here has rough edges and questionable intentions and the desire to do good in their own way. Watching it all play out is riveting and one of the year’s greatest experiences.
After a weekend where no new releases performed particularly well, we could be in for a similar situation this weekend. Though one newbie should manage to just clear $20 million. We have low-budget horror pic HappyDeathDay, Jackie Chan action thriller TheForeigner, and Chadwick Boseman led biopic Marshall debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The October Friday the 13th should bode rather well for HappyDeathDay. With the underwhelming performance of BladeRunner2049 (more on that below), I have Death slated for a first place showing in the low 20s and it could climb a bit higher.
Blade should slip to the runner-up position with TheForeigner in third. I have holdovers It and TheMountainBetweenUs rounding out the top five.
Marshall is only premiering on approximately 800 screens and my $4 million estimate for it puts it well outside the top 5. There is another apparent wide debut with ProfessorMarston & theWonderWomen. It stars Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall in the true life story of the man who created Wonder Woman. While it’s timed to capitalize on the summer’s biggest blockbuster, I’ll say it only manages maybe $2 million (there’s no theater count so I may revise that figure).
And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:
1. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
2. BladeRunner2049
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. TheForeigner
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. It
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. TheMountainBetweenUs
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 46%)
BoxOfficeResults (October6–8)
As mentioned, pricey long time in the making sequel BladeRunner2049 stalled in its opening weekend with $32.7 million, well below all expectations including my own $52.1M forecast. Despite glowing reviews, audiences simply didn’t come out for it as expected.
The Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster romance TheMountainBetweenUs debuted in second with a so-so $10.5 million, just above my $9.2M prediction.
It was third with $9.9 million (I said $9.3M) as it crossed the triple century mark at $305 million overall.
MyLittlePony: TheMovie was fourth out of the gate with just $8.8 million, under my $10.9M estimate.
Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I predicted $8M) for $80 million total.
In weekend #2, Tom Cruise’s AmericanMade fell to sixth with $8.4 million compared to my $8.9M projection. It’s earned $30 million in ten days.
Blogger’s Note (10/04/17) – I’ve changed predictions for nearly every film here… UPDATED PROJECTIONS REFLECTED BELOW
After a tight battle for #1 this past weekend between three pictures, there’s little no doubt as to what opens on top this coming weekend with Blade Runner 2049 hitting screens. We also have the Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster pic/romance The Mountain Between Us and animated My Little Pony: The Movie debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As mentioned, the glowing reviews for Blade Runner 2049 and the feeling of it being a bit of an event picture has me projecting a mid 40s opening. That should give it lots of space at #1 ahead of all competitors.
After that, it gets murky. I have Mountain slated at #2, but its middling reviews could be a hindrance to it reaching double digits (which I barely have it reaching).
When it comes to My Little Pony, my $8.2 million estimate is basically a middle ground figure as I could easily see it slightly over or under performing. That number puts it right in the mix of where It, American Made, and Kingsman: The Golden Circle might be. Bottom line: numbers 2-6 on the chart this weekend could be awfully close.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Blade Runner 2049
Predicted Gross: $52.1 million
2. My Little Pony: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
3. It
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. The Mountain Between Us
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. AmericanMade
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
6. Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)
It is really the sole reason why this September’s box office was a record one and so it seems fitting that the horror flick nearly returned to the #1 position as the month ended. The pic earned $16.9 million (ahead of my $15.1M estimate) to bring its total to $290 million.
Yet it was Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle that barely remained on top as it also made $16.9 million (I said $17.6M) for a two-week tally of $66 million.
Tom Cruise’s AmericanMade debuted in third with a just OK $16.7 million compared to my $15.5M prediction. Its best hope is for smallish declines in future frames.
TheLegoNinjago Movie dropped to fourth with $11.6 million (I said $12.6M) to bring its disappointing total to $35 million.
Flatliners did just that in its premiere in fifth, earning a sleepy $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.3M forecast.
In its wider expansion, BattleoftheSexes underwhelmed in sixth with only $3.4 million, below my $5.2M estimate.
American Made is fun while it lasts and the same can be said of the characters living through it for the most part. The film tells the true-life story of Barry Seal (Tom Cruise), a TWA pilot in the late 1970s who’s grown quite bored with his job. Early on, he creates turbulence on a flight just to break the monotony. Life perks up considerably when his services are utilized by the CIA to deal with Manuel Noriega’s Panamanian government and run guns to the Contras in what would become the biggest scandal of President Reagan’s administration. Seal’s shady interactions with the U.S. government aren’t the only item in his new job description as he starts a lucrative side business bringing cocaine back to the states from Columbia. This brings him front and center with Pablo Escobar (Mauicio Meija) and Jorge Ochoa (Alejandro Edda).
For most of Made‘s fast moving running time, Gary Spinelli’s screenplay creates a world where Seal is gloriously ambivalent as to the dangerous decisions he makes. He moves his family from Louisiana to the tiny town of Mena, Arkansas where the piles of money he’s earning is buried in the backyard and at new banks that miraculously pop up in the community. His wife Lucy (Sarah Wright) doesn’t ask too many questions, but she also makes it humorously clear that she doesn’t trust a thing her hubby is doing.
The tone of American Made can be slightly jarring if you really think about it. We’re dealing with real-life events that spawned real-life tragedies like illegal arms deals and the drug epidemic that swept the 1980s. However, that’s not on Seal’s mind or the picture’s for that matter. He’s too busy creating his own version of the American Dream and his journey through actual history casts him as a Forrest Gump like figure if Forrest had no moral compass.
For this decade, Cruise has mostly concentrated on starring in a mixed bag of action and sci-fi efforts. Made reunites him with his director from one of the better ones, Edge of Tomorrow. It also gives him one of his best roles in years and a true change of pace as far as material. Domhnall Gleeson is his CIA contact Schafer, who’s endlessly energetic about the chaos his agency is creating. One of the most memorable performances comes from Caleb Landry Jones as Seal’s creepy loose cannon of a brother-in-law. You may recognize him as the creepy loose cannon brother from Get Out and Jones has that character nailed in 2017.
American Made doesn’t necessarily bring much new to the table. Some of its story lines have been covered in much more serious works. Yet it’s got a lot of energy and it’s certainly entertaining, with Cruise’s presence a big factor as to why. By its conclusion, we’re aware that its central figure is creating his own turbulence again and he probably wouldn’t have it any other way.
Blogger’s Note (10/04/17): I have revised from estimate down from $10.6 million to $9.2 million
There’s been plenty of movies about disastrous relationships, but The Mountain Between Us brings in a different dynamic. Hany Abu-Assad’s pic casts Kate Winslet and Idris Elba as a journalist and doctor, respectively, whose jet crash lands in the wilderness. They’re the survivors and perhaps they fall in love too while battling the nasty elements.
Based on Charles Martin’s 2010 novel, Mountain premiered at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to so-so critical reaction (it’s at 73% currently on Rotten Tomatoes).
The film’s biggest hurdle to climb could be competition from adults. Blade Runner 2049 opens against it and American Made will be in its second weekend. 20th Century Fox’s best hope is that a sizable female audience turns up. I’m not too confident. I’ll predict Mountain gets just above double digits in its premiere.
The Mountain Between Us opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
A record breaking September (thanks to a certain clown) draws to a close in a busy weekend with the two highest profile debuts being Tom Cruise’s American Made and sci-fi horror remake/sequel Flatliners. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
They aren’t the only newbies this weekend. There’s the thriller ‘Til Death Do Us Part with Taye Diggs and Christian themed drama A Question of Faith. As of this writing, there are screen counts on neither. As I see it, both could potentially over perform, but I’ll say $2.8 million for Death and $1.2 million for Faith. Those numbers could change, but right now it puts both well outside the top 5.
There could be a real battle for #1. If American Made manages to debut in the high teens to low 20s, it should capture that spot. However, my mid teens estimated debut puts it in the runner-up spot behind the second weekend of Kingsman: The Golden Circle. I expect Circle to experience a larger drop than the 49% one that its predecessor had. It should fall one spot to third.
With a considerably lower than anticipated opening, The Lego Ninjago Movie is likely to be fourth, though it may have a smallish decline due to lack of family options.
This brings us to the five spot. I am not expecting much out of Flatliners and the Emma Stone/Steve Carell Oscar hopeful Battle of the Sexes is expanding to over 1000 screens. I believe that could create a close race between them, though I’ll give Flatliners the edge.
And with that, I’ll do a top 6 predictions this weekend:
1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. American Made
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. It
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
4. The Lego Ninjago Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Flatliners
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
6. Battle of the Sexes
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (September 22-24)
Kingsman: TheGoldenCircle took the gold this weekend with $39 million, a touch below my $43.6M projection. The sequel to the acclaimed 2015 sleeper hit didn’t receive the critical appreciation of the first, but it did manage to open slightly above its predecessor’s $36 million.
It dropped to second after two weeks on top with $29.7 million (I was right there with my $29.8M forecast) for a staggering tally of $266 million overall.
While Warner Bros has been celebrating the considerable accomplishments of Pennywise and The Losers, there was little to boast about with TheLegoNinjagoMovie. The animated feature opened to just $20.4 million in third – way below my $38.6M estimate. The studio better hope its non spin-off sequel to 2014’s TheLegoMovie gets the franchise back on track.
AmericanAssassin was fourth in its sophomore frame at $6.2 million (I said $6.9M) for $26 million total.
mother! rounded out the top five with $3.2 million for a meager $13M total and I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I gave far too much credit to the horror pic Friend Request. I pegged it at $5.7 million, but it managed just $2 million for seventh place. One wonders if It is simply sucking the oxygen out of any genre competition (it’s part of the reason I have Flatliners rather low).
Tom Cruise’s box office fortunes have taken a turn for the worse recently with two flops in less than a year – Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and this summer’s The Mummy. The star will attempt to turn that around next weekend with American Made.
The true life crime pic reunites Cruise with his Edge of Tomorrow director Doug Liman and finds him playing Barry Seal, pilot turned drug smuggler for the Medellin cartel in the 1980s. Costars include Sarah Wright, Domhnall Gleeson, and Jesse Plemons. Unlike his two previous pictures, Made is receiving positive reviews with a current 89% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
That positive word-of-mouth might help, but I could also see Made opening somewhat lightly with hopes of smallish declines in subsequent weekends. Unlike most of Cruise’s recent work, this isn’t an action or sci-fi project that audiences have become accustomed to seeing him in during recent years. Its box office potential should rely solely on his drawing power (which has waned) and the approving critical notices.
I’ll estimate that American Made generates a mid teens debut.
American Made opening weekend prediction: $15.5 million
Well folks – summer is winding down and on the movie calendar, that means fall ushers in Oscar contenders, film festivals, and all kinds of other eagerly awaited releases! Today on the blog, I bring you my 10 most awaited pictures of the season. Getting the list down to that number wasn’t exactly easy, so I’ll cheat a bit and mention some that just “missed the cut”. They include sequels (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Thor: Ragnarok), star vehicles like American Made with Tom Cruise and Roman Israel, Esq. with Denzel Washington, and Academy contenders like Battle of the Sexes, The Greatest Showman, Suburbicon, Darkest Hour, All the Money in the World, and The Disaster Artist.
Yet here are the ten that my personal movie calendar is most looking forward to (listed alphabetically):
Blade Runner 2049
Release Date: October 6
35 years after Ridley Scott made his landmark sci-fi pic, Sicario and Arrival director Denis Villeneuve enters this visually stunning world with Ryan Gosling, Jared Leto, and Robin Wright and Harrison Ford returning as Deckard.
Downsizing
Release Date: December 22
It may not be out until Christmas, but buzz will be out soon for this Oscar hopeful as it screens in Venice in just days. Alexander Payne’s fantastic filmography includes Election, About Schmidt, Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska. His latest is a sci-fi comedy/drama starring Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Alec Baldwin, Neil Patrick Harris, Jason Sudeikis, and (get used to hearing this name) Hong Chau, who’s already garnering Supporting Actress talk.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
It
Release Date: September 8
Fall essentially kicks off with this adaptation of one of Stephen King’s greatest works. Trailers for It looks scary as hell and it could compete for both biggest September debut ever and highest horror opening of all time.
Justice League
Release Date: November 17
DC’s version of The Avengers has been the subject of shaky buzz, but I’m curious to see how Batman, Aquaman, The Flash, and others meld together. Oh… there’s another one in the form of Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman, who just happened to headline the summer’s unexpected largest domestic hit (beating out other superheroes like the Guardians and Spidey).
mother!
Release Date: September 15
Darren Aronofsky’s latest looks to be in the vein of his Oscar nominated Black Swan and that’s a very good thing. Jennifer Lawrence, Javier Bardem, Ed Harris, and Michelle Pfeiffer star and if this trailer is any indication, we’re in for something very intriguing.
Murder on the Orient Express
Release Date: November 10
Michelle Pfeiffer makes another appearance on this list as she’s part of an impressive ensemble embroiled in this adaptation of Agatha Christie’s famed novel. Kenneth Branagh directs himself in the lead as Hercule Poirot. Other familiar faces include Johnny Depp, Daisy Ridley, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Willem Dafoe, and Josh Gad.
The Papers
Release Date: December 22
As in the Pentagon Papers and the Washington Post‘s battle with the Nixon administration to release them. You think this one has Oscar bait potential? It’s directed by Steven Spielberg and stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Phantom Thread
Release Date: December 27
Here’s how little is really known about this project… we’re not even sure Phantom Thread is its title. What do we know? It’s master filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest and reunites him with his There Will Be Blood star Daniel Day-Lewis.
NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
The Shape of Water
Release Date: December 8
Visionary director Guillermo del Toro’s latest looks to be a visual and potentially dramatic winner judging from its trailer. Sally Hawkins and Michael Shannon star in this 1960s set tale of a woman’s friendship with a strange creature.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Release Date: December 15
Last, but oh so far from the least. Rian Johnson takes over directorial duties for the year’s most anticipated release with Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill) gaining significantly more screen time and Carrie Fisher making her final bow as Princess Leia.
And there you have it, folks! Let us look forward to a hopefully glorious autumn season…
