We have reached day 6 of my earliest Oscar predictions and that means the big one – Best Picture!
This week, the Venice Film Festival has helped make the scene a little clearer in a couple of ways. For one, Damien Chazelle’s La La Land not only looks like an easy pick for a nomination, but it could potentially be a winner. Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals and Denis Villenueve’s Arrival are also in the mix. For now – I’m leaving Arrival out and Animals in (obviously this could certainly change over the next weeks and months).
There’s plenty that we haven’t seen that appear strong – Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Denzel Washington’s Fences. Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight.
And there are others that have already screened at other festivals that look like contenders: Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Jeff Nichols’ Loving. This list also includes Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation and whether or not news stories involving its director prevent it from being nominated is a legit question. For now, I’ve got it in.
A host of other possibilities abound that have yet to be screened and I’ll be keeping you up to date with numerous prediction posts over the fall. At this juncture, I have nine movies being nominated (there can be anywhere from 9-10).
TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
The Birth of a Nation
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
The Girl on the Train
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
Live by Night
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Rules Don’t Apply
A United Kingdom