Box Office Predictions: July 8-10

The second weekend of July brings us two new entries as the animated The Secret Life of Pets and raunchy comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates both debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

I have Pets slated to land the 11th highest animated premiere of all time, which will easily be enough to dominate the weekend and end the three-week reign of Dory, which should fall to 2nd.

As for Mike and Dave, I’m anticipating a rather soft opening in the low teens – which should mean it battling for anywhere between fourth and sixth with holdovers The Purge: Election Year (which should suffer a large decline in its second frame after a healthy debut) and The BFG (which hopes to have a somewhat meager decline after a very disappointing opening). My estimates have it holding a slight edge over the holdovers. The Legend of Tarzan, which greatly exceeded the expectations of most, should have third place to itself.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Secret Life of Pets

Predicted Gross: $73.7 million

2. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

5. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (July 1-4)

As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had a three peat at #1 over the long Fourth of July weekend. The pic (which seems well on its way to becoming summer 2016’s biggest earner) took in $41.8 million and $51.4 million over the traditional three-day and holiday four-day weekend, respectively. This topped my predictions of $35.6M and $44M to bring Dory to an overall $381 million – just a bit over $20M under where the current season champ Captain America: Civil War sits.

One of the big stories of the weekend was the larger than expected haul for The Legend of Tarzan. Despite mostly negative reviews and prognostications that it would not perform well, it opened with $38.5 million (three-day) and $46.5 million (four-day), swinging well past my $17.5M and $22M estimates. While Warner Bros. can take solace in its bigger than anticipated debut, its $180M budget still leaves in question its eventual profitability or, most importantly, hopes for a franchise. The weekends ahead and overseas earnings may determine whether Tarzan and Jane come back for a repeat engagement.

Audiences showed they’re still into one particular horror franchise as The Purge: Election Year opened with $31.5 million (3 day) and $36.1 million (4 day) – ahead of my $21.7M and $25.5M forecast. While it will almost certainly suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2, the series is a cash cow for Universal and I would expect a fourth purge to be coming your way soon.

While both of the aforementioned newcomers over performed, the same cannot be said of Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Despite mostly positive reviews, grosses were not big or friendly as this giant disappointment made $18.7 million (3 day) and $22.7 million (4 day) out of the gate. This is under my $26.6M and $33.2M projections.

Independence Day: Resurgence rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame and did not experience a bump due to its namesake holiday weekend. The sequel continued to disappoint with $16.7 million (3 day) and $21.6 million (4 day), just under my $17.8M and $22.8M projections for a ten-day total of just $77 million.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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