Box Office Predictions: June 10-12

The attack of the sequels continues in the second weekend of June 2016 as The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 debut. Both are follow-ups to massive summer 2013 hits and both will attempt to match or outdo their predecessors out of the gate. And there’s the long-awaited Warcraft, based on the two decades old video game with a fervent following. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/the-conjuring-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/now-you-see-me-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/01/warcraft-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the three newbies should populate the top 3 spots this weekend. However, other prognosticators may differ with my placement of them. I have Conjuring 2 slightly outpacing the original and rather easily placing first. On the other hand, I’m predicting Now You See Me 2 will come in a bit under the $29M accomplished by its predecessor and finish second.

Warcraft is the biggest question mark, in my estimation. Even with its devoted fan base, word of mouth has been troubling, competition is fierce, and I’m having difficulty seeing it expand beyond its core audience. That puts it third in my book in a photo finish with Now You See Me 2. 

After an unimpressive opening (more on that below), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows should drop to fourth. The five spot could be a close one between the third weekend of X-Men: Apocalypse and the second weekend of Me Before You, which performed quite well in its debut.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Conjuring 2

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Now You See Me 2

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million

3. Warcraft

Predicted Gross: $23.3 million

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (June 3-5)

There was little question that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows would rule the weekend, but its eventual take was none too impressive. The sequel made $35.3 million, well below my $50.3M prediction. Shadows continues the 2016 trend of sequels coming in considerably below their predecessors. The 2014 reboot of the franchise made $65M in its opening weekend.

X-Men: Apocalypse (another sequel not matching its previous entry) dropped to second with $22.8 million, a bit under my $25.3M forecast for a two-week total of $116M.

The British romantic drama Me Before You had an impressive roll-out with $18.7 million compared to my meager $11.5M estimate. The film, which received mostly positive reviews, was the beneficiary of a sizable female turnout in a sea of the mostly male-driven material populating the multiplexes.

Alice Through the Looking Glass continued its putrid run in weekend #2 with $11.3 million, though it did top my $10M prediction. The Disney bomb has grossed just $51 million in ten days… less than half of what 2010’s Alice in Wonderland earned in its first weekend.

The Angry Birds Movie was fifth with $10.2 million (in line with my $9.8M projection) for an $87M tally so far.

Captain America: Civil War was sixth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a total of $389M and $400M right around the corner.

I did a top seven predictions for this weekend and incorrectly had under performing Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising outside that group. It placed 7th with $4.8 million for an overall $48M gross.

That’s because I had Andy Samberg’s Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping at seventh, yet it charted in 8th with a weak $4.6 million opening (I said $5.6M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

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One thought on “Box Office Predictions: June 10-12

  1. Yo Todd!!

    Go figure…more sequels this weekend. At least this weekend looks to be an interesting one:

    The Conjuring 2 – $38.2M
    Now You See Me 2 – $25.3M
    Warcraft – $21M

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