Box Office Predictions: July 31-August 2

As July comes to a close, two new entries look to nab the top spots at the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and comedy reboot Vacation debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/23/mission-impossible-rogue-nation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/24/vacation-box-office-prediction/

Tom Cruise’s fifth go round as Ethan Hunt should have no problem at all taking the #1 spot while I look for Vacation to land in the runner-up spot.

As for holdovers, I look for Minions to hold up better than current champ Ant-Man, allowing them to place third and fourth. Adam Sandler’s Pixels had a very poor premiere (more on that below) and I look for it to experience the heftiest decline, putting it in a close race for fifth with Trainwreck and Southpaw.

And with that, we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:

1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $52.3 million

2. Vacation

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Minions

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Pixels

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)

7. Southpaw

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

Marvel’s Ant-Man surprisingly held onto the #1 slot in its second weekend with $24.9 million, in line with my $25.6M projection. It has grossed a solid $106M in its first ten days of release.

The “surprise” is that Pixels was expected to top the charts, yet it tanked with a $24 million opening – less than half of my extremely generous $49M prediction. The critically panned video game pic represents another poor performance from Adam Sandler, whose box office star has been waning in recent years.

Minions was third with $22.9 million, on target with my $23.4M estimate and the animated hit has brought in $262M.

Trainwreck held up admirably for fourth in weekend #2 with $17.2 million (a bit under my $18.7M prediction) for a total of $61 million. The Judd Apatow comedy should top $100M when all is said and done.

Jake Gyllenhaal’s boxing drama Southpaw exceeded most expectations with a sturdy $16.7 million, ahead of my $12.9M projection.

Finally, teen romance Paper Towns (based on a John Green bestseller) had a less than expected roll out with just $12.6 million, considerably below my $26.8M estimate. While Towns has a tiny budget and will easily profit, this is disappointing considering The Fault in Our Stars (also based on a Green novel) made $48M out of the gate last summer.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

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