Box Office Predictions: November 21-23

There’s only one new game in town at the box office this weekend and it’s a biggie: The Hunger Games, Mockingjay – Part 1, the third installment of the blockbuster franchise. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

Mockingjay should have no problem having the biggest opening weekend of 2014 as it only needs to outdo the $100M debut accomplished by Transformers: Age of Extinction. I have it premiering between what 2012’s original ($152M) and its sequel Catching Fire ($158M) started at. The film is also highly likely to become the year’s highest grosser when all is said and done, surpassing Guardians of the Galaxy.

As for holdovers, current #1 Dumb and Dumber To is likely to suffer the largest drop of the group. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, word of mouth should be tepid and many moviegoers may have anxiously chose to get their Harry and Lloyd fix early. It should find itself in a battle with Interstellar (in weekend #3) for the three spot.

That should allow Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 to remain number two while Beyond the Lights and Gone Girl should fight it out for #5.

And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for this weekend:

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $155.8 million

2. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Dumb and Dumber To

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Beyond the Lights

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

The classic comedy reunion of Carrey and Daniels proved to be a fruitful one as Dumb and Dumber To opened quite well 20 years after the original. The critically panned sequel made $36.1 million, above my $29.2M projection. As mentioned, audiences don’t appear to like what they’ve seen and it should fall off rather quickly.

In second, Big Hero 6 made $34.6 million in its sophomore frame – a bit under my $38.9M prediction. Disney’s animated hit has hauled in $110M so far.

Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar was third in its second weekend with $28.3 million, right on pace with my $28.9M estimate. It’s taken in $97M at press time.

The romantic musical drama Beyond the Lights had a dim opening with just $6.2 million for fourth place, not coming close to my $11.4M. The pic simply didn’t connect with its intended audience, despite mostly positive reviews and an A Cinemascore grade.

Rounding the top five – David Fincher’s Gone Girl with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5M (pat on back)! It’s up to $152M domestically.

And that’s all for now, loyal readers!



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