Box Office Predictions: October 3-5

The first box office weekend of October is bound to be a highly unpredictable one as three new pics enter the marketplace: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, the horror prequel Annabelle, and faith-based Nicolas Cage thriller Left Behind. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

Here’s where the unpredictability comes in and it applies to all three new films…

Gone Girl is riding a wave of favorable reviews and it’s based on a very well-known 2012 Gillian Flynn novel. Yet movies like this can sometimes open decently and develop sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. My prediction for Gone Girl is definitely on the high end of expectations.

Annabelle, the prequel/spinoff of last summer’s hit The Conjuring, could easily surpass my prediction, which is definitely on the low end of expectations. It’s conceivable that these two newcomers could fight it out for #1, though my estimates do not reflect that.

Left Behind is another wild card. It is based on a series of well-known novels and its Christian themes could certainly give it a better opening than I’m predicting.

Add all that up and it equals a weekend where surprises would not be surprising. As for holdovers, I anticipate current #1 The Equalizer should lose about half its audience, with smaller declines for the animated The Boxtrolls and YA flick The Maze Runner.

And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $39.6 million

2. Annabelle

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. The Equalizer

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. The Boxtrolls

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 44%)

6. Left Behind

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (September 26-28)

It was a terrific weekend for yours truly with newcomers, while I didn’t give a couple of holdovers enough credit and gave another a bit too much.

As expected, Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer easily topped the charts with a rock solid $34.1 million, right in line with my $34.8M projection. The action thriller managed the fourth best September debut ever and the third best for star Washington.

YA hit The Maze Runner slipped to second with $17.4 million, holding up quite better than my $14.6M estimate. The budding new franchise has earned $57 million in ten days and is definitely a treat to pass $100M when all is said and done.

The animated feature The Boxtrolls took third with $17.2 million. My prediction… $17.2M! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one and this represents a decent opening for the pic.

In fourth, ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You made $6.8 million in week two, outpacing my $5.8M projection. It’s made an OK $22 million in ten days.

Fifth place belonged to Dolphin Tale 2 in its third frame with $4.7 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I had the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones earning $6.1 million in weekend #2, yet it only managed $4.1M. This major disappointment has grossed only $20 million so far and should top out with only about $30M.

That’s all for now, friends. ‘Till next time…

One thought on “Box Office Predictions: October 3-5

  1. Gone Girl might be real big… A lot of people I work with have been talking about pre-orders since last week… Left Behind look real bad, I think it will flop hard, I don’t even think the church groups will see it…

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