Warner Bros looks for its fruitful 2025 to keep rolling when The Conjuring: Last Rites hits theaters on September 5th. The studio has had horror hits this year via Sinners and Weapons. Rites marks the fourth proper feature in the series that began in 2013 and ninth overall in the franchise when counting spinoffs Annabelle and The Nun and their sequels. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga reprise their roles as paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. Michael Chaves, who made #3 The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and The Nun II, directs. Costars include Mia Tomlinson and Ben Hardy.
2021’s Devil actually had the lowest opening weekend of the entire franchise with $24 million. That comes with an asterisk as it premiered during COVID times and was unveiled simultaneously on HBO Max. 2023’s The Nun II brought the scary universe back to normal debuts at $32 million. The original Nun from 2018 boasts the highest debut of the whole lot at $53 million.
Last Rites is pacing to reach those heights and should exceed the $40 million beginnings like the first two Conjuring pics managed to do at $40 million and $41 million, respectively. I am projecting that it’ll outdo The Nun for a franchise best haul.
The Conjuring: Last Rites opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million
Five years ago, The Nun upended conventional wisdom (get it??) with a larger than anticipated opening. At the time, it was the fifth feature in the Conjuring Universe and it set the opening weekend record for the horror franchise at $53 million. The sequel out September 8th is now the ninth entry with Michael Chaves directing (he also made The Curse of La Llorona and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It). Taissa Farmiga, Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons (as The Nun) reprise their roles with Storm Reid and Anna Popplewell joining the cast.
Whether its The Conjuring and its sequels, Annabelle and her follow-ups, or The Nun, Warner Bros has made massive profits in the past decade from this series. Nun II‘s predecessor, in addition to the highest premiere, holds the second best overall domestic gross ($117 million while the first Conjuring took in $137 million). Each direct follow-up for Conjuring and Annabelle has seen slight to fairly substantial decreases in their debuts. 2013’s Conjuring made $41 million while part 2 made $40 million and the third slid to $24 million (with COVID complications to be fair). Annabelle started with $37 million while its sequel hit $35 million and the third did $20 million (a series low).
You’ll note that the second installments hold up rather well. The Nun II would need to top the original Conjuring‘s $41 million for the #2 beginning. That’s certainly doable, but I’ll project high 30s.
The Nun II opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million
For my My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 prediction, click here:
The two week spell of horror sequels topping the box office charts should be broken this weekend with the release of the musical adaptation for In the Heights and kiddie follow-up Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I look for multiplexes playing Heights to not be a quiet place and I’m projecting a mid 20s rollout for what should be a #1 opening. This is despite Lin-Manuel Miranda’s co-creation also playing on HBO Max as the pic is the first real Oscar buzz contender of 2021. I anticipate a healthy female and Latino turnout.
The Rabbit sequel may not match the $25 million achieved by its 2018 predecessor, but I do think it’ll conjure up a mid to high teens posting for what should easily be a second place debut.
As for those horror sequels, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It premiered on the higher end of expectations (more on that below). The previous direct predecessor, 2016’s The Conjuring 2, fell a precipitous 63% in its sophomore outing. Devil will probably suffer a similar decline and that could put it in a third place showdown with the third frame of A Quiet Place Part II. I actually believe Place could edge out Devil for that slot, but it should be awfully close. Disney’s Cruella will round out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. In the Heights
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
2. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
3. A Quiet Place Part II
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
4. The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Cruella
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (June 11-13)
I was too generous to the holdovers and too miserly with the newcomers this past weekend as The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It opened at #1 with $24 million. My prediction of $19.8 million was off the mark and I had it placing second to A Quiet Place Part II. Oops. The return of the Warrens and their supernatural investigations premiered on the higher end of expectations, but well below the $40 million plus starts of its two predecessors. That said, considering it’s also on HBO Max, it’s a solid haul.
A Quiet Place Part II slipped to second with a 59% decline and $19.2 million. I was far more optimistic at $28.4 million. While I was off, Paramount has to be pleased. The sequel has generated $88 million in ten days.
Cruella was third in its sophomore outing at $11 million (I projected more with $13 million). The Disney live-action remake stands at $43 million.
DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed was fourth with $6.1 million, galloping past my $4.4 million forecast. While I was more skeptical, this is about where it was anticipated to land.
Raya and the Last Dragon was fifth with $1.2 million (I said $1.6 million) and it’s up to $53 million.
America’s favorite paranormal investigating peeps The Warrens (Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson) are back in theaters and on HBO Max next week in The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It. This is the second sequel to the 2013 horror hit and the eighth overall entry in the Conjuring Universe. Michael Chaves (who made the previous series effort The Curse of la Llorona) takes over directorial duties from James Wan, who produces and shares a story credit. Costars include Ruairi O’Connor, Sarah Catherine Hook, and Julian Hilliard.
Originally scheduled for a September 2020 premiere before its COVID delay, Devil will attempt to reach an opening weekend gross commensurate with its predecessors. That could be a helluva task. Both pics with Conjuring in the title made just over $40 million for their starts. The first two Annabelle spin-offs took in over $30 million out of the gate. Another spin-off, The Nun, actually holds the series record with $53 million. Yet the past two flicks couldn’t match up. The third Annabelle made just over $20 million while the aforementioned la Llorona hit $26 million.
Those dwindling earnings could continue here. I’m a bit surprised that Warner Bros is releasing this just one week after A Quiet Place Part II, which should still be making loud noises at multiplexes. Furthermore, some fans with Max subscriptions will opt to view it in the comfort of their home. This franchise, on the other hand, has often shown an ability to over perform (The Nun hitting $50 million plus was not anticipated). Yet for the reasons described, I believe Devil could end up having the lowest domestic debut of the whole bunch.
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It opening weekend prediction: $19.8 million
We aren’t exactly blessed with a new horror classic in TheNun, the latest entry in the seemingly endless possibilities for spinoffs in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe. It does, however, manage to rise above the Annabelle creations before it with some style points and an occasional identity of its own. While both Annabelle and its sequel often felt like unnecessary cash grabs, I’ll give director Corin Hardy a bit of credit for creating something a little different. Let’s call it maybe a B- for trying.
The title character here first appeared in TheConjuring2. She’s a demonic nun possessed by evil spirit Valak. Paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren (Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga) had to put up with her sister acts of violence in that picture. This prequel and spin-off (preoff?… spinquel??) takes it back two decades earlier to the 1950s in Romania. A nun has committed suicide in a monastery after making the acquaintance of Valak and the Vatican enlists Father Burke (Demian Bechir) to look into it. He’s paired up with Sister Irene (Taissa Farmiga), who’s still in the novitiate (or training) stage before taking her vows.
Once they reach the scene of the death, Father and Sister are subject to lots of shadowy lurking, visions of terror, and charming local Frenchie (Jonas Bloquet) who provides a couple moments of genuine comic relief. That’s not something often found in this particular Universe and it’s welcome because these pics aren’t worth taking seriously.
2013’s TheConjuring was a very entertaining and scary genre exercise. The direct sequel and the offshoots haven’t come close to its power. And TheNun is nowhere near as entertaining or scary. Yet I wouldn’t classify this one as lazy. The monastery setting creates a sometimes effective claustrophobic feel. We know this franchise is all about jump scares and they’re in bountiful supply. I’ll give Taissa Farmiga props for her ability to act as terrified as her big sister Vera in the main series flicks. Calling this the best spin-off thus far isn’t praise of the highest power, but I’ll confess to it holding my interest better than the doll.
Blogger’s Note (09/05/18): I am revising my estimate up from $38.4 million to $45.4 million
The Conjuring Cinematic Universe rolls along when The Nun debuts next weekend. The fifth entry in the highly successful Warner Bros horror franchise is a prequel to all four previous pictures. Our title character was first glimpsed at in 2016’s The Conjuring 2. Corin Hardy directs a cast that includes Demian Bichir, Taissa Farmiga (sister of Conjuring star Vera), Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons.
Just a couple of weeks back, The Nun received some unexpected publicity when YouTube pulled one of its trailers off the site due to its frightening jump scares. If anything, that notoriety could help peak the curiosity of moviegoers. Not that it necessarily needs it. The opening weekend grosses of this series have been remarkably consistent. Here’s the rundown:
The Conjuring – $41.8 million
Annabelle – $37.1 million
The Conjuring 2 – $40.4 million
Annabelle: Creation – $35 million
I don’t see any compelling reason why The Nun would change that range. You could say it seems pretty (ahem) black and white to me. I’ll predict this scary sister act hits high 30s.
The demented doll made famous four summers ago is back in Annabelle: Creation, a prequel to 2014’s original, which itself was a spin-off of 2013’s breakout horror smash TheConjuring. This follow-up is from director David F. Sandberg, who made last summer’s well-received LightsOut. Stars include Stephanie Sigman, Talitha Bateman, Anthony LaPaglia, and Miranda Otto.
There is one major difference between the 2014 spin-off and its sequel. While Annabelle only obtained a 29% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this one is surprisingly at 100% and is obviously said to be a marked improvement.
How will that translate to box office dollars? Annabelle opened to a better than anticipated $37.1 million and was front loaded in its business with an eventual $84 million domestic gross. TheConjuring2 from last summer couldn’t quite match its original’s debut (though it was awfully close at $41 million vs. $40 million).
Competition is relatively light, but even with the solid reviews, I don’t expect Creation to quite match the premiere of its predecessor. However, it may leg out better. I’ll say a high 20s to low 30s debut is most probable.
Annabelle: Creation opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million
For my The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature prediction, click here:
The stars of The Conjuring 2 are not found in the names of Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga, who return here as real life paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. It’s not found in the name of its director, James Wan, who has proven himself repeatedly as someone who knows how to craft a suspenseful sequence.
No, the stars of The Conjuring 2 can be found by going over to IMDB and looking up the various names that make up its sound department. The biggest hair rising moments in the 2013 original and this sequel are due to them. Every creak of the steps. Each movement of an empty rocking chair. The turns of a creepy zoetrope. One difference this time around – the first Conjuring simply felt a little fresher upon its release.
After a prologue that touches on the Amityville case and the Warren’s involvement, our sequel takes place six years after the events in that Rhode Island farmhouse. That brings us to 1977 and across the pond to England. We have another family – a poor single mom (Frances O’Connor) and her four children being terrorized by their house dwelling demon. One in particular, 11 year old Janet (Madison Wolfe), gets the brunt of the possession.
Enter the Warrens, who have their doubts regarding the case’s authenticity. They eventually figure out that this lower class family doesn’t have a 2016 level sound effects department at their disposal. There’s a creepy nun that doesn’t quite match the heebie jeebie level of Annabelle in the original, but comes close from time to time. Speaking of, the nun is getting her own spin-off feature just like Annabelle did. Let’s hope the sister’s act is more worthwhile than the doll’s.
Nothing here really equals what made part 1 such an unexpected treat. A team as talented as this will make us jump up in our seats at least a few times and that occurs here. And the added benefit that this is all real (allegedly) doesn’t hurt. True story or not, despite it being directed better than most other genre entries and that aforementioned ace sound team – The Conjuring 2 can’t help but occasionally suffer from a been there, heard that scary sound effect before feeling.
Three new releases populate the final weekend in June as Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows all debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Let’s get Free State and The Shallows out the way first, as I expect both to open in the low double digits and likely place fourth and fifth. I look for Central Intelligence to lose over half its opening audience, which should place it firmly in third.
The real battle could be for the top spot between current champ Finding Dory and Resurgence. I’m anticipating that Dory won’t quite drop 50%, which gives it the edge in my view.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $69.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. Independence Day: Resurgence
Predicted Gross: $63.5 million
3. Central Intelligence
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)
4. Free State of Jones
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. The Shallows
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
Box Office Results (June 17-19)
The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t the only ones making history this weekend as Disney/Pixar’s FindingDory had the largest animated debut in box office history with $135 million. This easily swam past my $127.3M prediction and topped the $121 million previous record held by ShrektheThird. The sequel to the 2003 classic provided a much needed boost to a summer that is lagging behind the previous one.
CentralIntelligence, as expected, had a sturdy second place debut with $35.5 million, comparable to my $34.1M projection. The debut is in line with recent premieres for costar Kevin Hart and having Dwayne Johnson at his side didn’t hurt.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames held the three-five spots. All experienced precipitous declines and all came in below my estimates. TheConjuring2 was third with $14.8 million (I said $20.3M) for a $71 million total. NowYouSeeMe2 was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $12.5M) for a gross of $41 million. Warcraft was fifth with $7.2 million (I said $8.9M). It’s made $38 million.
Disney/Pixar looks to have their biggest debut ever while Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart team up for an action comedy as Finding Dory and Central Intelligence premiere this weekend. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
My estimates do have that animated fish pulling off Pixar’s largest opening weekend haul with Intelligence performing similarly to Hart’s two last pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard.
As for holdovers, I look for current champ The Conjuring 2 to lose about half its audience. Another sequel, Now You See Me 2, should experience a better sophomore hold than Warcraft.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $117.3 million
2. Central Intelligence
Predicted Gross: $34.1 million
3. The Conjuring 2
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
4. Now You See Me 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. Warcraft
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 63%)
Box Office Results (June 10-12)
Horror fans turned out for The Conjuring 2 as it debuted on top with $40.4 million, just below my $42.6 million estimate and just under the $41.5 million that the original made in its first weekend in 2013.
The video game based Warcraft managed a pretty minor debut with $24.1 million – though it did barely outdo my $23.3M projection. Mostly scathing reviews and poor word of mouth didn’t help for the mega-budget production, but it is doing well overseas.
Another sequel to a 2013 hit, Now You See Me 2, came in third with $22.3 million. I went just over with a $24.1M forecast. This doesn’t match the $29 million that the first made.
Last weekend’s #1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows slipped to fourth with $14.3 million, on target with my $14.4M prediction for an underwhelming two week tally of $60M.
X-Men: Apocalypse was fifth with $9.9 million (I said $10.4M) for a $136M total and Me Before You was sixth with $9 million (I said $10M) for a gross of $36M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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