Three new releases populate the final weekend in June as Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows all debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Let’s get Free State and The Shallows out the way first, as I expect both to open in the low double digits and likely place fourth and fifth. I look for Central Intelligence to lose over half its opening audience, which should place it firmly in third.
The real battle could be for the top spot between current champ Finding Dory and Resurgence. I’m anticipating that Dory won’t quite drop 50%, which gives it the edge in my view.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
- Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $69.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. Independence Day: Resurgence
Predicted Gross: $63.5 million
3. Central Intelligence
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)
4. Free State of Jones
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. The Shallows
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
Box Office Results (June 17-19)
The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t the only ones making history this weekend as Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had the largest animated debut in box office history with $135 million. This easily swam past my $127.3M prediction and topped the $121 million previous record held by Shrek the Third. The sequel to the 2003 classic provided a much needed boost to a summer that is lagging behind the previous one.
Central Intelligence, as expected, had a sturdy second place debut with $35.5 million, comparable to my $34.1M projection. The debut is in line with recent premieres for costar Kevin Hart and having Dwayne Johnson at his side didn’t hurt.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames held the three-five spots. All experienced precipitous declines and all came in below my estimates. The Conjuring 2 was third with $14.8 million (I said $20.3M) for a $71 million total. Now You See Me 2 was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $12.5M) for a gross of $41 million. Warcraft was fifth with $7.2 million (I said $8.9M). It’s made $38 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…