Box Office Predictions: June 17-19

Disney/Pixar looks to have their biggest debut ever while Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart team up for an action comedy as Finding Dory and Central Intelligence premiere this weekend. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/finding-dory-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/central-intelligence-box-office-prediction/

My estimates do have that animated fish pulling off Pixar’s largest opening weekend haul with Intelligence performing similarly to Hart’s two last pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard.

As for holdovers, I look for current champ The Conjuring 2 to lose about half its audience. Another sequel, Now You See Me 2, should experience a better sophomore hold than Warcraft.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $117.3 million

2. Central Intelligence

Predicted Gross: $34.1 million

3. The Conjuring 2

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Now You See Me 2

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Warcraft

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 63%)

Box Office Results (June 10-12)

Horror fans turned out for The Conjuring 2 as it debuted on top with $40.4 million, just below my $42.6 million estimate and just under the $41.5 million that the original made in its first weekend in 2013.

The video game based Warcraft managed a pretty minor debut with $24.1 million – though it did barely outdo my $23.3M projection. Mostly scathing reviews and poor word of mouth didn’t help for the mega-budget production, but it is doing well overseas.

Another sequel to a 2013 hit, Now You See Me 2, came in third with $22.3 million. I went just over with a $24.1M forecast. This doesn’t match the $29 million that the first made.

Last weekend’s #1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows slipped to fourth with $14.3 million, on target with my $14.4M prediction for an underwhelming two week tally of $60M.

X-Men: Apocalypse was fifth with $9.9 million (I said $10.4M) for a $136M total and Me Before You was sixth with $9 million (I said $10M) for a gross of $36M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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3 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: June 17-19

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