Well, here we are folks! After four months of (almost) weekly columns predicting the nominees and dozens of individualized Oscar Watch posts, the Academy Award nominations will be officially announced on Tuesday, January 24th around 8:30AM Eastern time. These are my final predictions. I’ve pontificated all year on who and what these nominees might be, so we’ll keep this simple. I’m listing my predicted nominees in each race as well as a first and second alternative. On Tuesday evening, I’ll have a post up recounting how I did.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
First Alternate: Martin Scorsese, Silence
Second Alternate: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
First Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Second Alternate: Joel Edgerton, Loving
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
First Alternate: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Second Alternate: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Second Alternate: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: Loving
Best Original Screenplay
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
First Alternate: The Lobster
Second Alternate: Toni Erdmann
Best Animated Feature
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Zootopia
First Alternate: The Red Turtle
Second Alternate: The Little Prince
Best Documentary Feature
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
First Alternate: Gleason
Second Alternate: The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
The King’s Choice
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
First Alternate: My Life as a Zucchini
Second Alternate: It’s Only the End of the World
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
First Alternate: Silence
Second Alternate: Love & Friendship
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
First Alternate: Lion
Second Alternate: Hell or High Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
First Alternate: A Man Called Ove
Second Alternate: Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
First Alternate: Jackie
Second Alternate: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Original Song
“Audition” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
First Alternate: “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Second Alternate: “Faith” from Sing
Best Production Design
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
First Alternate: Hacksaw Ridge
Second Alternate: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Sully
Second Alternate: The Jungle Book
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: Deadpool
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
First Alternate: Deepwater Horizon
Second Alternate: The BFG
That gives yours truly the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
10 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hell or High Water, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
1 Nomination
Elle, I, Daniel Blake, Finding Dory, Kubo and the Two Strings, My Life as a Zucchini, Zootopia, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, The King’s Choice, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, Allied, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sing Street, Deepwater Horizon, Sully, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book
And there you have it – my FINAL (yikes) Oscar predictions! Check back on Tuesday for the postmortem.
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.
Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Silence (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
13. Sully (PR: 12)
14. Jackie (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zootopia (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eye in the Sky
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
3. 13th (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 5)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
10. Weiner (PR: 9)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)
7. Paradise (PR: 8)
8. Tanna (PR: 7)
9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 4)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 8)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Lion (PR: 5)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
9. Sully (PR: 7)
10. Jackie (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Deadpool (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. The BFG (PR: 9)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Moana
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)
4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)
7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 4)
5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool
Doctor Strange
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: 7)
7. Allied (PR: 8)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
10. Deadpool (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. The BFG (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)
That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Moonlight, Arrival
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.
That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!
We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…
Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
6. Fences (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Jackie (PR: 12)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Loving (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)
2. 13th (PR: 1)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
5. Gleason (PR: 4)
Other Possibilties
6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 7)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 3)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)
9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Neruda
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Julieta
Ma’Rosa
The Ardennes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
8. Silence (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 3)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
4. Deadpool (PR: 5)
5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Love & Friendship
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 7)
3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
4. Lion (PR: 2)
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Jackie (PR: 3)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana (PR: 4)
9. The BFG (PR: 10)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)
4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)
8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)
9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 5)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Allied
Love & Friendship
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. La La Land (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Allied
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
5. Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 7)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
10. Deadpool (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 6)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
A Monster Calls
That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Lion
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Silence
4 Nominations
Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins
2 Nominations
Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book
1 Nomination
Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!
Towards the end of each calendar year, I’ve put up posts honoring the people who have captured our movie going attention during that time period. 2015 was the first year that I honored a feeling in one post as opposed to an individual. Last year, it was Nostalgia and it fit due to the box office potency of titles like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Jurassic World, among others.
In 2016, the initial posting is again not a human, but a studio. And it’s Disney. The Mouse Factory has set the all-time record for studio grosses in a calendar year and its list of blockbusters is something to behold.
Currently, Disney is responsible for half of the top ten grossing pictures of the year and that list will grow to six very shortly with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.
Let’s break it down: Finding Dory ($486 million) is #1 with Captain America: Civil War ($408M) at second. Rogue is likely to join the top three for a Disney trifecta atop the year.
#4 is The Jungle Book ($364M). #6 is Zootopia ($341M) and #9 is Doctor Strange ($226M). Moana is sitting at #11 right now with $162M.
In short, the studio is making a killing on their three most valued properties: animation and the live-action adaptations of them, Marvel Studios, and the Star Wars franchise. That is bound to continue in 2017 with animated features like Cars 3 and Coco. As for the live-action remakes, expect March’s Beauty and the Beast to do boffo business. On the Marvel side, we have Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnorak. And of the Star Wars juggernaut,we have Episode VIII (still untitled) invading theaters in December.
Of course, not everything Disney released this year was a smash. There were high-profile flops like Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG. Also, Pete’s Dragon did decent business, but nothing compared to its other renderings of the animated classics. In 2017, a big question mark is whether or not they can successfully reinvigorate another once popular series with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.
Those few disappointments aside, it was a watershed year for Disney and they deservedly get the first mention in my year end honors.
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
Happy Friday y’all! Readers of my blog are aware that every Thursday for a few weeks now, I’ve been giving you my projections in the eight biggest races for the Academy Awards. Those categories are Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. You can peruse yesterday’s post here if you didn’t catch it:
What about the other categories, though? Well fear not because today is the first day I’m giving you my take on them as well. I’m leaving out (and will continue to leave out) Documentary Short Subject and the short film races in animated and live-action. Why? I don’t know anything about them and it’d be simple guesswork to predict them.
That said, we’ve got a bunch of other races to cover. As I’ve done with the others, I’ll give my 5 predicted nominees and list five other strong possibilities. Let’s get to it!
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. Finding Dory
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince
7. April and the Extraordinary World
8. My Life as a Zucchini
9. Sausage Party
10. Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th
2. O.J.: Made in America
3. Gleason
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro
Other Possibilities
6. The Eagle Huntress
7. Cameraperson
8. Fire at Sea
9. Miss Sharon Jones
10. The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann
2. Fire at Sea
3. Land of Mine
4. Elle
5. A Man Called Ove
Other Possibilities
6. The Salesman
7. Ma’Rosa
8. The Ardennes
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
10. Neruda
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night
7. Lion
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Jackie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Love and Friendship
4. Live by Night
5. Silence
Other Possibilities
6. Allied
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Florence Foster Jenkins
9. Fences
10. Hidden Figures
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Jackie
8. Hell or High Water
9. Live by Night
10. Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (only three nominees)
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Other Possibilities
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. The BFG
6. Hidden Figures
7. Star Trek Beyond
8. Suicide Squad
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Silence
Best Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Jackie
5. Moana
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land
4. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
5. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls
7. “A Letter to the Free” from 13th
8. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
9. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply
10. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Jackie
4. Live by Night
5. Arrival
Other Possibilities
6. Love and Friendship
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
10. Allied
Best Sound Editing
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. The Jungle Book
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Patriots Day
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Silence
8. Deepwater Horizon
9. Sully
10. Passengers
Best Sound Mixing
1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Patriots Day
4. Sully
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Arrival
9. Passengers
10. Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. A Monster Calls
5. Passengers
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. The BFG
8. Star Trek Beyond
9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
10. Captain America: Civil War
**And that leaves the following breakdown for all movies in all categories getting the following number of nominations (this will be updated every week):
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Silence
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Arrival, Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
5 Nominations
Jackie
4 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, The Jungle Book, Loving, Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Live by Night, Patriots Day, Sully, 20th Century Women
1 Nomination
13th, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Finding Dory, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hell or High Water, I Am Not Your Negro, Kubo and the Two Strings, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Love & Friendship, A Man Called Ove, A Monster Calls, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, Passengers, Po, The Red Turtle, Toni Erdmann, Zootopia
Next Thursday – I’ll have my predictions updated in all categories! Until then…
Blogger’s note – on vacation currently so keeping things shorter and sweeter than normal.
The third weekend of July brings the Ghostbusters (albeit a new team) to theaters for the first time in nearly three decades, as Bryan Cranston’s crime drama The Infiltrator opens Wednesday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Ghostbusters may fall short of the #1 spot, based on my projection if The Secret Life of Pets falls just over in the 40s after its massive debut (more on that below).
That should leave Tarzan and Dory fighting it out for the three spot with Mike, Dave and their wedding dates rounding out the top five. My projection for The Infiltrator ($4.6 million Friday to Sunday and $6.1M from Wednesday to Sunday) leaves it outside the high five.
With that – my predicted top 5:
The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $57.6 million
2. Ghostbusters
Predicted Gross: $47.3 million
3. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JULY 8-10)
The Secret Life of Pets smashed projections this weekend with $104.3 million – lapping my $73.7M estimate. That’s good for the sixth highest animated debut ever and what’ll surely be a new franchise.
The Legend of Tarzan stayed in second with $21 million (just above my $19.8M prediction) for a two week tally of $81M. Finding Dory slipped to third after three weeks on top with $20.8 million (a touch under my $23.3M forecast) for a $423M overall haul.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates had a pleasing debut in fourth with $16.6 million, ahead of my prediction of $13.5M.
The Purge: Election Year was fifth with $12.3 million (I said $10.9M) for a ten day total of $58M. Central Intelligence was sixth with $8 million and I incorrectly had outside the top 6. That’s because Steven Spielberg’s The BFG continued its lackluster grosses and dropped further than I anticipated. It was seventh in weekend 2 with $7.8 million – under my $10.6M estimate for a gross of just $38M.
The second weekend of July brings us two new entries as the animated The Secret Life of Pets and raunchy comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates both debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I have Pets slated to land the 11th highest animated premiere of all time, which will easily be enough to dominate the weekend and end the three-week reign of Dory, which should fall to 2nd.
As for Mike and Dave, I’m anticipating a rather soft opening in the low teens – which should mean it battling for anywhere between fourth and sixth with holdovers The Purge: Election Year (which should suffer a large decline in its second frame after a healthy debut) and The BFG (which hopes to have a somewhat meager decline after a very disappointing opening). My estimates have it holding a slight edge over the holdovers. The Legend of Tarzan, which greatly exceeded the expectations of most, should have third place to itself.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $73.7 million
2. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. The Purge: Election Year
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. The BFG
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (July 1-4)
As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had a three peat at #1 over the long Fourth of July weekend. The pic (which seems well on its way to becoming summer 2016’s biggest earner) took in $41.8 million and $51.4 million over the traditional three-day and holiday four-day weekend, respectively. This topped my predictions of $35.6M and $44M to bring Dory to an overall $381 million – just a bit over $20M under where the current season champ Captain America: Civil War sits.
One of the big stories of the weekend was the larger than expected haul for The Legend of Tarzan. Despite mostly negative reviews and prognostications that it would not perform well, it opened with $38.5 million (three-day) and $46.5 million (four-day), swinging well past my $17.5M and $22M estimates. While Warner Bros. can take solace in its bigger than anticipated debut, its $180M budget still leaves in question its eventual profitability or, most importantly, hopes for a franchise. The weekends ahead and overseas earnings may determine whether Tarzan and Jane come back for a repeat engagement.
Audiences showed they’re still into one particular horror franchise as The Purge: Election Year opened with $31.5 million (3 day) and $36.1 million (4 day) – ahead of my $21.7M and $25.5M forecast. While it will almost certainly suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2, the series is a cash cow for Universal and I would expect a fourth purge to be coming your way soon.
While both of the aforementioned newcomers over performed, the same cannot be said of Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Despite mostly positive reviews, grosses were not big or friendly as this giant disappointment made $18.7 million (3 day) and $22.7 million (4 day) out of the gate. This is under my $26.6M and $33.2M projections.
Independence Day: Resurgence rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame and did not experience a bump due to its namesake holiday weekend. The sequel continued to disappoint with $16.7 million (3 day) and $21.6 million (4 day), just under my $17.8M and $22.8M projections for a ten-day total of just $77 million.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The Fourth of July weekend is here at the box office as three new titles make their debuts over the four day frame: Steven Spielberg’s The BFG, horror three-quel The Purge: Election Year, and adventure pic The Legend of Tarzan. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I have all three earning over $20 million over the long weekend, I don’t expect any of them will manage to top the third weekend of Finding Dory. My estimates reflect a belief that BFG will have a so-so opening, Purge a fairly healthy one albeit under its predecessors, and Tarzan a rather disastrous one.
As for Independence Day: Resurgence in its sophomore weekend, one might think it could hold up well due to… you know, it being Independence Day weekend. I’m not so sure. It had a very lackluster roll out (more on that below) and its weak B Cinemascore grade indicates a rough road ahead.
And with that, my top five predictions (including three and four day projections) for the weekend:
Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $35.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Friday to Monday)
2. The BFG
Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)
3. The Purge: Election Year
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.8 million (Friday to Monday)
5. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JUNE 24-26)
Finding Dory had no problem whatsoever swimming atop the charts as it grossed $72.9 million in weekend #2, just above my $69.8M projection. The Pixar smash has earned $286 million thus far.
20 years ago, Independence Day ruled the summer of 1996. Its long gestating sequel Resurgence? Not so much as it premiered to just $41 million, way below my $63.5M estimate. Here is yet another summer example of a sequel performing well below expectations and this one classifies as a bonafide bomb.
Central Intelligence held up well in its sophomore weekend with $18.2 million for third, ahead of my $15.2M prediction for a two week total of $69 million.
Blake Lively had a nice weekend as her shark tale The Shallows came in well above expectations at #4 with $16.8 million – lapping my $10.4M forecast. Considering its budget is just a reported $17 million, this is a nice size hit for Mrs. Deadpool.
The Conjuring 2 was fifth with $7.7 million for an $86 million tally. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because the news was not so good for Matthew McConaughey as his critically panned Civil War drama Free State of Jones stalled with $7.5 million in sixth, under my $12.7M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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