As they say, revenge is a film best served with Liam Neeson in it and Summit Entertainment hopes that holds true next weekend with ColdPursuit. The action thriller casts Neeson as a snow plow driver avenging the murder of his son with his particular set of skills. Norwegian director Hans Petter Moland is behind the camera and costars include Laura Dern, Emmy Rossum, Tom Bateman, and William Forsythe.
We are a decade past the star’s career resurgence with the sleeper hit Taken and its two sequels. What followed were $20 million plus openers like Unknown and Non–Stop. The sub genre of Neeson tough guy flicks, however, has seen its grosses dwindle in recent years. AWalkAmongtheTombstones, RunAllNight, and last year’s TheCommuter all debuted in the low double digits to low teens range.
Reviews have been surprisingly strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is at 93%. Several critics have praised an apparent well-placed sense of humor. Yet I’m skeptical that will give ColdPursuit a hot premiere. I’ll predict this falls right in line with his later entries.
ColdPursuit opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
The final weekend of January at the box office should bring an easy three-peat for Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. Three newbies make their way to the screen: the found footage sci-fi pic Project Almanac, Kevin Costner interracial drama Black or White, and murder mystery The Loft. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:
American Sniper continues to confound all expectations and, as mentioned, should easily steamroll all competitors.
Almanac appears to have the best chance to do decent business and I don’t expect much out of the other two. In fact, I have the latter two films debuting at seventh and eighth place.
As for holdovers, current #2 The Boy Next Door should suffer the furthest drop in its sophomore frame. Paddington and The Wedding Ringer should stay in the top five while Oscar hopeful The Imitation Game is experiencing very small drop-offs and could top both Black or White and The Loft.
Two important factors to keep in mind that could effect the box office this weekend: The Super Bowl and the aftermath of a massive winter storm expected to pound the East Coast. Both could trend my predicted numbers downward.
And with that, we’ll do a Top 8 for this weekend:
1. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $42.1 million (representing a drop of 34%)
2. Project Almanac
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
3. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)
4. The Boy Next Door
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. The Wedding Ringer
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. The Imitation Game
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 14%)
7. Black or White
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
8. The Loft
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (January 23-25)
The cultural and financial phenomenon that is American Sniper continued to keep jaws on the floor in its second weekend of wide release. Dropping just 28%, it grossed $64.6 million – well above my $50.4M projection. That’s the eight largest sophomore frame in box office history. The Best Picture nominee has grossed $200.4M so far and should easily surpass $350M with $400M being a possibility. That means it is likely to end up as the largest grosser that was released in 2014 (in limited release, for awards consideration), passing The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Unreal.
The Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door debuted solidly with $14.9 million – on par with my $14.7M prediction. Considering its low-budget, this is a fine debut for the poorly reviewed flick.
Paddington was third with $12.2 million – in line with my $12.6M estimate. The children’s pic has earned $39M at press time. The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer earned fourth with $11.3 million, just under my $12.1M projection. It too has amassed a decent $39M so far.
The failure of two newcomers (we’ll get to that in a second) allowed Taken 3 to place fifth with $7.4 million with a total of $75M. I did not have it predicted in the top five. Same goes for The Imitation Game which was sixth with $6.9 million and has earned $60M (making it the second highest grossing Best Picture nominee after Sniper).
The George Lucas produced animated pic Strange Magic stumbled with a debut of only $5.5 million for seventh place. I gave it too much credit and estimated an opening of $8.6M.
Then… Mortdecai. Johnny Depp suffered a colossal bomb as the critically drubbed comedy placed eighth with a pathetic $4.2 million (under my $7.4M estimate). The star clearly needs to start picking better projects as his recent resume is littered with duds that include Dark Shadows and Transcendence.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! And remember… should you need to conduct a super secret business meeting this week, go see Mortdecai and you’ll probably have the theater to yourselves. Until next time…
Three new movies take on the daunting task of attempting to unseat the box office juggernaut that is American Sniper. They are the Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door, Johnny Depp comedy Mortdecai, and George Lucas produced 3D animated pic Strange Magic. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:
We’ll cut right to the chase here: not a one of them has a chance of taking on Sniper. I look for Lopez’s flick to appeal to a female audience and generate the best debut among the newbies that should be good enough for a #2 opening. As for Magic and Mortdecai, neither look to make much of a dent.
As mentioned, the jaw dropping opening of American Sniper should mean it easily retains its top spot. Both Paddington and The Wedding Ringer premiered solidly and I look for them to be right behind Door in their second weekends. If either Magic or Mortdecai fail to perform even up to my meager expectations, it could mean Taken 3 remains in the top six as it should gross around $7 million in its third weekend.
And with that, estimates for this weekend’s Top 6:
1. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $50.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)
2. The Boy Next Door
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
3. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. The Wedding Ringer
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Strange Magic
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
6. Mortdecai
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
Box Office Results (January 16-18)
This weekend, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper became a cultural phenomenon. No one saw a gross this huge coming as it performed similar to what a superhero summer tent pole would earn. It took in $89.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend (I predicted less than half of that at $40.6M). For the long MLK weekend, it made $107 million. Unreal. Clearly the combination of critical acclaim, Oscar nominations, and highly effective trailers and TV spots did the job.
The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer had a sturdy second place opening at $20.6 million, however it was below my $29.4M estimate. Over the four-day it made $24 million.
The children’s bear tale Paddington took in $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday, under my $22.3M projection. The well-reviewed pic amassed a pleasing $25.4M over the four day portion of the weekend.
Taken 3 dipped to fourth in its sophomore frame with $14.7 million, under my $17.1M prediction. The action sequel stands at $65 million at press time.
Selma was fifth in its second weekend in release with $8.7 million – not matching my generous $12.5M estimate. I thought the MLK holiday might assist a little more in bumping its grosses, though it’s worth noting that yesterday’s holiday gave the pic its largest single day during its run. It’s earned $31M so far.
Finally… Blackhat. Oh boy. The Michael Mann directed thriller with Chris Hemsworth bombed placing 10th with a pathetic $3.9 million. I predicted $13.6M. Oops. The heavy competition, weak reviews, and middling marketing campaign sunk this project, which reportedly cost $70M. Blackhat easily qualifies as the first enormous failure of 2015.
In case you didn’t notice, everything but Sniper grossed less than I figured. It’s no accident. Sniper unquestionably had an effect on the viability of the other releases and Sniper‘s debut will definitely rank as one of the box office top stories of this year.
Four high profile pictures enter the marketplace this Friday. They are Clint Eastwood’s Oscar buzz worthy American Sniper starring Bradley Cooper, the Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer, children’s pic Paddington, and Chris Hemsworth headlining and Michael Mann directed cyber thriller Blackhat. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
It’s Sniper that I anticipate ruling the box office weekend with Ringer and Paddington debuting solidly and in the runner up positions. As for Blackhat, it may settle for a weak fifth place premiere, behind current champ Taken 3 in its second weekend. The Liam Neeson sequel should fall hard in its sophomore frame like its predecessor, but its better than anticipated debut makes that a non story.
Finally, Oscar contender Selma opened to less than expected results. Yet I look for it to gain audience in its second frame considering the weekend is named for its subject, Dr. Martin Luther King.
With that, a top six projection for the weekend:
1. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $40.6 million
2. The Wedding Ringer
Predicted Gross: $29.4 million
3. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. Taken 3
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
5. Blackhat
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
6. Selma
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 12%)
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JANUARY 9-11)
As widely expected, Taken 3 easily knocked The Hobbit off its three week reign at #1. The critically drubbed sequel took in an impressive $39.2 million – besting my $32.8M prediction. Neeson says this is the finale of the franchise but something tells me the studio will figure out a way otherwise.
Selma opened second. As previously mentioned, the $11.3 million it earned is underwhelming (I said $17.2M). Yet it should experience low drop offs in subsequent weekends.
2014 holdovers rounded out the top five and all held up a bit worse than my estimates. Into the Woods placed third with $9.5 million ($11.8M prediction). The Hobbit was fourth with $9.3 million ($12.1M prediction). Unbroken was fifth with $8.1 million ($11.7M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $105, $236, and $101 million.
Lastly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice expanded to over 400 screens and did just OK. Its $2.7 million 11th place roll out did manage to top my $1.8M projection.
The second box office weekend of the new year gives us three new releases: Liam Neeson’s return to his action franchise Taken 3, the civil rights awards hopeful Selma, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice. You can find my individual prediction posts on them here:
Taken 3 should have no trouble opening at the top spot while Selma should manage a solid second place debut. Due to its limited number of screens it’s premiering on, Inherent Vice is likely to land far outside the top five. I have it earning $1.8 million.
As for holdovers such as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Into the Woods, and Unbroken, all should lose less than half their audience from the previous frame. It could be a real fight between them for numbers 3-5. The same cannot be said for The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, which is primed for a hefty fall that’s not uncommon for horror pics.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top 5:
1. Taken 3
Predicted Gross: $32.8 million
2. Selma
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Into the Woods
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Unbroken
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (January 2-4)
As expected, the third and final Hobbit effort spent its third weekend at #1 with $21.7 million, just under my $23.3M prediction. Its total stands at $220 million and should get to around $275M domestic.
In second in its sophomore frame was Into the Woods with $18.7 million – right on target with my $18.5M projection. Its total since Christmas stands at $90 million and $150M is in sight. Another Christmas release, Unbroken, was third with $18.1 million compared to my $19.2M estimate. Its cume is up to $87 million. It could end up between $140-145M.
The Woman in Black 2: The Angel of Death was the weekend’s only new offering and it performed better than anticipated with $15 million, ahead of my $11.1M prediction. As mentioned earlier, look for it to fall precipitously next weekend.
Family holdovers made up the five and six slots, both in their third weekends. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb took in $14.5 million, on target with my $14.3M prognosis. Annie made $11.2 million and I said… $11.2 million! Boom! Their respective total grosses are $89M and $72M.
Once again Liam Neeson is back in vengeance mode as Taken 3 makes its way to theaters this Friday. The 2009 original kicked off a new career for Mr. Neeson as an improbable action star and it’s paid major dividends for him.
No one expected the first Taken to perform as it did when it made $24.7 million on its way to a $139 million domestic haul. The 2012 sequel kept the momentum going with a $49.5 million premiere with an eventual gross of $145 million.
Forest Whitaker joins the mix this time along with returnees Maggie Grace and Famke Janssen (though not long for her according to the spoiler happy TV spots). One must wonder if audience anticipation will wane a bit this time around. While the second go round did outdo the first, it wasn’t considered as solid as the original. Moviegoers may be growing slightly weary of viewing Neeson’s special set of skills.
Nevertheless, while the third entry may end up being the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise, I still see it topping $30 million out of the gate and easily topping the charts next weekend.
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