Kelly Reichardt is an acclaimed indie filmmaker behind the recent Certain Women and First Cow. Her latest, which premiered at Cannes, is Showing Up and it casts Michelle Williams as a sculptor in the family drama. Costars include Hong Chau, Judd Hirsch, John Magaro, Andre Benjamin, and James Le Gros.
Reviews say this is a lighter take on Reichardt’s material and the 100% Rotten Tomatoes indicates a winner. In what is becoming a common refrain in these posts, the distributor is A24. It will be a juggling act when it comes to their Oscar campaigns (Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Whale, and Aftersun are just three of their hopefuls).
Williams is drawing early raves. She’s seeking her fifth nomination after two lead nods for 2010’s Blue Valentine and 2011’s My Week with Marilyn and two supporting mentions for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain and 2016’s Manchester by the Sea. While she could draw attention here, there’s also Steven Spielberg’s upcoming The Fabelmans where she could make an appearance in supporting.
It’s important to remember that First Cow starting garnering some awards chatter that ended up petering out. That could happen here but the strong Cannes start helps its case. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My second round of Oscar predictions in the six biggest races are before you. When I update them next, we’ll be in the midst of the Cannes Film Festival where some of these hopefuls are screening.
As for category placement changes, I’ve moved Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon to Supporting Actor from lead. It remains to be seen which contest he’s placed in. If it is supporting, we shall see if it’s him or Robert De Niro that gets the buzz. I’m betting on the latter at press time.
Let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. She Said (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (E)
17. Tar (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Till (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Armageddon Time (PR: 25) (+6)
20. Elvis (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Woman King (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-6)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-2)
11. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (E)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.
For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water.
Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Son
5. Women Talking
6. She Said
7. Bardo
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. The Whale
10. Rustin
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam
12. White Noise
13. Poor Things
14. Tar
15. Till
16. Empire of Light
17. Avatar: The Way of Water
18. Don’t Worry Darling
19. Next Goal Wins
20. Thirteen Lives
21. The Banshees of Inisherin
22. Elvis
23. The Woman King
24. Three Thousand Years of Longing
25. Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Florian Zeller, The Son
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
9. Maria Schrader, She Said
10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise
14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon
2. Regina King, Shirley
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Carey Mulligan, She Said
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Laura Dern, The Son
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King
12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
My super duper earliest Oscar predictions in the big races has reached Best Director with only Picture left. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:
These will be monthly predictions until August when they become weekly. Here’s how I have the filmmakers performing at this early stage. I currently have four past winners and a first-time nominee in the mix.
TODD’S APRIL 2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
It’s been an entire week since The Slap… check that, the 94th Academy Awards where CODA parlayed its Sundance buzz from January 2021 all the way to a Best Picture victory.
That also means I’ve managed to wait a whole week without speculation for the next Academy Awards which will hopefully be a slap free zone. So what are some titles that could be vying for attention?
On May 27th and after numerous delays, Top Gun: Maverick will find Tom Cruise returning to his iconic role some 36 years after the original. There’s a decent chance it could be up for similar prizes that its predecessor landed like Sound, Film Editing, and Song (courtesy of Lady Gaga apparently). Visual Effects is a possibility as well.
My weekly Oscar prediction posts won’t begin until mid to late August. In the meantime, you’ll get individualized write-ups for pics that open or screen at festivals.
Yet for today – I feel the need. The need to identify 21 other 2022 titles that might end up on the Academy’s radar. Enjoy!
Armageddon Time
Despite acclaimed movies like The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra, James Gray has yet to connect with awards voters. This drama, rumored to be centered on his Queens upbringing, is the next hopeful and features a stellar cast including Anne Hathaway, Anthony Hopkins, and Jeremy Strong. Release Date: TBD
Avatar 2
The 2009 original amassed nine nominations and won took home three. The first sequel (there’s three more on the way) arrives in December from James Cameron. Will it capture the critical and box office magic of part one? That’s impossible to know at this juncture, but one can safely assume it’ll be up for some tech categories like Sound and Visual Effects. Release Date: December 16th
Babylon
Damien Chazelle is no stranger to the big dance. Whiplash was a BP nominee and J.K. Simmons won Supporting Actor. Chazelle took Director for his follow-up La La Land along with Emma Stone’s Actress victory and it almost famously took BP. First Man nabbed four nominations, but missed the top of the line races. Babylon is a period drama focused on Hollywood’s Golden Age and should be right up the Academy’s alley. The cast includes Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Tobey Maguire. Release Date: December 25th
Canterbury Glass
Robbie also turns up in David O. Russell’s latest ensemble piece. Anytime he’s behind the camera, Oscar nods typically follow (think The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle). Slated for November, the dramedy also features Christian Bale, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Zoe Saldana, Robert De Niro, Mike Myers, and… Chris Rock. Release Date: November 4th
Elvis
Arriving in June but with a Cannes unveiling in May, Baz Luhrmann’s musical bio of The King stars Austin Butler in the title role and Tom Hanks as The Colonel. If this doesn’t contend for the major awards, I would still anticipate potential tech recognition (Production Design, Sound, etc…). Release Date: June 24th
Empire of Light
Sam Mendes was likely in the runner-up position in 2019 for Picture and Director (behind Parasite) with 1917. His follow-up is an English set romance starring Olivia Colman (who would be going for her fourth nomination in five years), Michael Ward, and Colin Firth. Release Date: TBD
Everything Everywhere All at Once
From two filmmakers known collectively as Daniels, Once is already out in limited release with spectacular reviews (97% on RT). The sci-fi action comedy might be too bizarre for the Academy, but I wouldn’t count it out as its admirers are vocal. Picture, Director, Actress (Michelle Yeoh), and Original Screenplay are all on the table. Release Date: out in limited release, opens wide April 8th
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg directs a semi-autobiographical tale and cowrites with his Lincoln and West Side Story scribe Tony Kushner. The cast includes Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen, and Paul Dano. Needless to say, this is a major contender on paper. Release Date: November 23rd
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alongside The Fabelmans, this might be the most obvious nominee from a personnel standpoint. Martin Scorsese helms this western crime drama featuring Jesse Plemons, Lily Gladstone, and his two frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Apple TV just became the first streamer to get a BP victory with CODA. This could be the second in a row. Release Date: November
Poor Things
In 2018, The Favourite scored a whopping ten nominations. Based on an acclaimed 1992 novel, Poor Things is Yorgos Lanthimos’s follow-up and it reunites him with Emma Stone along with Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Mark Ruffalo. The plot sounds bizarre but it could also be an Oscar bait role for Stone and others. Release Date: TBD
Rustin
One of Netflix’s contenders is George C. Wolfe’s profile of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin (played by Colman Domingo). In 2020, Wolfe directed Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman to nods for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Look for Domingo to be a competitor and the supporting cast includes Chris Rock (maybe he will be back at the show), Glynn Turman, and Audra McDonald. Release Date: TBD
See How They Run
The 1950s set murder mystery could provide 27-year-old Saoirse Ronan with an opportunity to land her fifth nomination. Sam Rockwell, David Oyelowo, Adrien Brody, and Ruth Wilson are among the supporting players. Tom George directs. Release Date: TBD
She Said
Five years after the scandal rocked Hollywood, She Said from Maria Schrader recounts the New York Times sexual misconduct investigation into Harvey Weinstein. Zoe Kazan, Carey Mulligan, and Patricia Clarkson lead the cast. Release Date: November 18th
The Son
Florian Zeller won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 for The Father along with Anthony Hopkins taking Best Actor. This follow-up (based on the director’s play) finds Hopkins reprising his Oscar-winning part in supporting fashion. Other cast members seeking awards attention include Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, and Vanessa Kirby. Release Date: TBD
TAR
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Todd Field behind the camera. Previous efforts In the Bedroom and Little Children received 8 nominations between them. A decade and a half following Children comes this Berlin set drama with Cate Blanchett, Noemie Merlant, and Mark Strong. Release Date: October 7th
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Scheduled for a Cannes bow in May, Longing is a fantasy romance from the legendary mind of George Miller (who last made Mad Max: Fury Road which won six tech Oscars). Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton star. Release Date: TBD
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Mickey Rourke to a comeback narrative nod for 2008’s The Wrestler. Two years later, his follow-up Black Swan earned Natalie Portman a statue. Brendan Fraser is hoping for the same treatment with The Whale as he plays a 600 pound man attempting to reconnect with his daughter. Costars include Sadie Sink, Hong Chau, and Samantha Morton. I’d expect Makeup and Hairstyling could also be in play with this. Release Date: TBD
White Noise
Not a remake of the Michael Keaton supernatural thriller from 2005, this is Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to Marriage Story. Based on a 1985 novel, it’s the filmmaker’s first picture based on other source material. Marriage landed three acting nods (with Laura Dern winning Supporting Actress). The cast here includes frequent Baumbach collaborator Adam Driver, real-life partner Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Andre Benjamin, Alessandro Nivola, and Don Cheadle. This could be Netflix’s strongest contender. Release Date: TBD
The Woman King
Expect this West Afrian set historical epic from Gina Prince-Bythewood to be heavily touted by Sony with awards bait roles for leads Viola Davis and Thuso Mbedu. The supporting cast includes John Boyega and Lashana Lynch. Release Date: September 16th
Women Talking
Based on a 2018 novel, Sarah Polley writes and directs this drama focused on eight Mennonite women and their story of abuse. The sterling cast includes Frances McDormand, Jessie Buckley, Ben Whishaw, Claire Foy, and Rooney Mara. Release Date: TBD
And that’s just a small preview of the features that could materialize for the 95th Academy Awards! As always, the speculation on this site will continue throughout the year and into the next. Stay tuned…
And it’s come to this! After seven months of endless speculation, predictions, and posts – the 94th Academy Awards (with your hosts Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall) airs this Sunday evening.
These are my final picks for the races covering feature films. Will the Best Picture be CODA?
Or The Power of the Dog?
We have ourselves some real intrigue as both are strong possibilities. Either way, a steamer (either Netflix or Apple TV) should pick up its inaugural Best Pic victory.
Will there be upsets in any of the acting derbies where there seems to be a consensus four based on precursors? And just what will occur in the screenplay races which look unpredictable?
For each race, I’ll give you a bit of commentary along with my projected victor and the runner-up.
Let’s get to it! On Sunday evening, you will see a recap with how I performed…
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
Well, the big daddy of them all has certainly become fascinating. CODA, the little Sundance pic that could, has surged in the past few days. In addition to winning the SAG Ensemble prize, it captured the Producers Guild top honor and was a BAFTA selection for Adapted Screenplay. These designations (PGA especially) are significant precursors. A strong argument could be made that it has the momentum as voting closed yesterday. In fact, I’ve seen more prognosticators picking it this week than not…
However, The Power of the Dog is still quite viable. It took the Golden Globe Best Drama trophy as well as Critics Choice and BAFTA. Until CODA‘s rise, it was the heavy favorite.
We’ve got a real coin flip, folks! That definitely makes the end of Oscar night more suspenseful than last year when Nomadland seemed unbeatable and indeed was.
I don’t believe any of the other eight pictures have a chance. As for the two that do, I’ve gone back and forth constantly all week. There’s a time to stop speculating and make a final pick and I still believe there’s enough power for the Dog to edge out CODA. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out the other way.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Commentary:
This is far easier than Picture. With CODA maker Sian Heder absent, Jane Campion is in line to become the third female (and second in a row) to make a podium trip. She’s won all the key precursors – DGA, Globes, Critics Choice. It’s even a challenge to name a runner-up (I guess I’ll say Spielberg because he’s Spielberg). Make no mistake – this is one of the simplest checkmarks on the ballot.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessicas Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Commentary:
Kidman garnered the initial heat after a surprise Globe win, but that’s stalled as no other awards programs followed suit. Instead it’s been Chastain on the minor streak with SAG and Critics Choice. If there’s an upset in any acting derby, this is probably where it happens. Stewart’s road to Oscar looked shaky after some snubs. Academy voters could reward her and there’s some chatter about Cruz being viable. Yet I’m sticking with the safest best and that’s Chastain taking her first gold.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Riunner-Up:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
During the fall, I was thinking there could be a barnburner between Smith and Cumberbatch (with Garfield as potential spoiler). That’s not how it’s played out as the Fresh Prince has been crowned the king in all preceding shows. I expect the sweep to continue.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Commentary:
Buckley and Dench were surprising inclusions, but there won’t be any shocks with the winner. DeBose has run the table and she should represent Story‘s lone victory.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Despite its quartet of performers getting nominations, Dog is likely to produce Oscars for none of them. Smit-McPhee received the Golden Globe but it’s been all Kotsur since. This is the race where I’m most confident of a CODA moment.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Runner-Up:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
Good luck with this one! The Writer’s Guild threw everyone for a loop last weekend when Don’t Look Up won over Licorice Pizza (Belfast was not eligible). I just don’t envision the Academy honoring Up. With a Belfast or Pizza victory, they would bestowing first ever Oscars to Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. With the Globe and Critics Choice going to Belfast, it has my vote (though it’s close).
PREDICTED WINNER:
Belfast
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
CODA‘s BAFTA win kickstarted its momentum. Even if Dog is Best Picture, CODA could still take this. On the other hand, I think there’s a better chance Best Pic and Adapted Screenplay match so I’m rolling with the Dog with no degree of confidence whatsoever.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Commentary:
I’m tempted to pick a Mitchells upset, but it’s dangerous to pick against Disney and Encanto is the frontrunner.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
This is unquestionably one of the no brainer picks as Drive My Car has dominated the precursors and is the only nominee to also nab a Best Picture nod.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
With nominations in Animated Feature, International Feature, and Doc – it sure seems like Flee should win one of them. It might stand the best chance in this competition, but Summer of Soul has been impressive in precursors and should continue the streak.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up:
Flee
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
This might be the tech race where Dog is successful. I’m not predicting it though and (get used to hearing this) think Dune emerges.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Commentary:
Cruella has killed it the preceding competitions. Dune, if it crushes all techs, could take it but I’m going with the former.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
Commentary:
Don’t sleep on King Richard which was bestowed the EDDIE award. I still think this is Dune‘s to lose.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Commentary:
Gucci could fashion a 1 for 1 victory but Tammy Faye has taken some precursors.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Runner-Up:
House of Gucci
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Cinematography, this is between Dog and Dune. Like Cinematography, I’m choosing the latter.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Commentary:
Diane Warren gets her 13th nomination with “Somehow” and somehow she’s never won. That will continue. The smart money is on the 007 theme song from Billie Eilish. Yet I’m going with a minor upset with the Disney tune.
PREDICTED WINNER:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Runner-Up:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
For the last three categories, I could just say Dune and be done with it. In fact, I think I will…
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
There isn’t one… that’s how I’m confident I am that Dune takes it.
And so, ladies and gents, that means I’m predicting that these movies win these numbers of Oscars:
6 Wins
Dune
3 Wins
The Power of the Dog
2 Wins
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
1 Win
Belfast, CODA, Cruella, Drive My Car, King Richard, Summer of Soul, West Side Story
The 27th Critics Choice Awards air this Sunday evening and they’re another often reliable indicator for who and what may win on Oscar night. As I have with SAG and the Golden Globes, I am giving you my winner predictions along with the runner-up pick.
Let’s get to it and I’ll have a recap up either Sunday evening or Monday!
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actor
Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Comedy
Nominees:
Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
The French Dispatch
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World
Predicted Winner:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Emilia Jones, CODA
Best Acting Ensemble
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The Harder They Fall
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Editing
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Predicted Winner:
House of Gucci
Runner-Up:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Nightmare Alley
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Song
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner:
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Runner-Up:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
No Time to Die
That equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers for wins:
6 Wins
The Power of the Dog
3 Wins
Dune
2 Wins
West Side Story
1 Win
Cruella, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
Hitting Netflix today is Shawn Levy’s The Adam Project, a sci-fi adventure that re-teams the director with his Free Guy lead Ryan Reynolds. Costars include Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Garner, Walker Scobell, Catherine Keener, and Zoe Saldana.
Focused on a 12-year-old who meets his fighter pilot future self, many reviews are kindly comparing this Project to 80s era Spielberg product. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a decent though not overly impressive 70%.
Since it’s available for some theatrical showings, this will be eligible for Oscar consideration. Levy and Reynolds, as mentioned, collaborated just last year for Free Guy and that resulted in a box office hit and a slot in the Visual Effects race (where it will almost certainly lose to Dune in two weeks).
Based on the write-ups, Free Guy appears to be a flashier experience than Adam and I doubt this manages to garner any awards attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Steven Spielberg’s direction of West Side Story closes out my five Case Of posts for the nominees in the race. If you didn’t catch the previous four, you can get ’em here:
He’s Steven Spielberg – the most famous and beloved director in the world. Garnering an 8th nomination for his behind the camera work, he could follow in the footsteps of Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins. They won 60 years ago for their direction of the 1961 original.
The Case Against Steven Spielberg:
Spielberg’s two previous victories were for Best Picture frontrunners Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan (which ended up getting upset by Shakespeare in Love). West Side Story is not expected to take the big prize and it was also a high-profile box office disappointment.
Previous Nominations: 7 (for Directing only)
Close Encounters of Third Kind (1977); Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981); E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982); Schindler’s List (1993 – WON); Saving Private Ryan (1998 – WON); Munich (2005); Lincoln (2012)
The Verdict:
When Spielberg took gold for Schindler’s 28 years ago, he beat out Jane Campion for The Piano. She was probably runner-up. It appears that dynamic will be reversed as Campion is the odds on favorite.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final Best Actress hopeful – Kristen Stewart for Spencer…
The third entry in my Case Of posts for the Best Director nominees belongs to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. If you missed the first two, you can find them here:
After a 12 year absence from filmmaking, New Zealand’s Campion made an acclaimed return with the Netflix drama. It led all movies in terms of nods with an even better than anticipated 13. Already the winner of the Golden Globe, Campion has been the frontrunner ever since Dog‘s release. She would become just the third female to take this race after Kathryn Bigelow with 2009’s The Hurt Locker and Chloe Zhao for last year’s Nomadland.
The Case Against Jane Campion:
If Dog is simply all nominations and very few wins (similar to The Irishman from two years ago), we could see plenty of upsets and that would include Campion losing here.
Previous Nominations: 1 (for directing only)
The Piano (1993)
The Verdict:
In 1993, Campion was probably runner-up in this category to Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List. Even though Spielberg is up against her again with West Side Story, Campion comes into this ceremony as the sturdy favorite. Even if Power doesn’t take Best Picture, I’d still likely be forecasting Campion in this competition and in Adapted Screenplay. That would add Oscars two and three to her mantle after an Original Screenplay victory for The Piano.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third Best Actress hopeful – Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers…
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