Tag: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Box Office Predictions: January 19-21

Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million

Two new titles vie for action fan attention this weekend as military themed 12 Strong and heist themed Den of Thieves debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

12 Strong Box Office Prediction

Den of Thieves Box Office Prediction

12 Strong could potentially make a play for the top spot, but I suspect Jumanji will continue its dominance in first place. Looking over the post MLK weekend from years past, it’s not rare for holdovers to experience smallish declines. I suspect that will hold true for Jumanji and The Post.

Along those lines, The Greatest Showman should drop to fourth with The Commuter rounding out the top 5. My $6.1 million estimate for Den of Thieves puts it outside my high five.

And with that – here they are!

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Post

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. 12 Strong

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million

5. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (January 12–15)

Jumanji continued its remarkable run atop the charts over the four day MLK weekend with $35.1 million, edging past my prediction of $32.7 million. The smash sequel has amassed $291 million since its Christmas time debut.

There were plenty of new releases and expansions this weekend and Steven Spielberg’s Oscar hopeful The Post fared best in second with $23 million, in line with my $22.3 million estimate.

The Greatest Showman continued its stellar run with $16.1 million, singing beyond my $12.6 million prediction. It’s ready to join the century club as it stands at $98 million.

Liam Neeson took fourth with The Commuter as it opened with a fairly solid $15.8 million (I was a touch lower at $14.6 million).

One of the surprises of the weekend was the disappointing performance for critically acclaimed kiddie sequel Paddington 2, debuting in fifth with a mediocre $15 million. I had it pegged for a #2 premiere at $22.4 million. Oops.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi was sixth with $14.6 million (I said $15.5 million) for $594 million total.

Insidious: The Last Key fell from second to seventh with $14.3 million compared to my $13.2 million estimate. It’s earned $50 million in its two weeks of release.

In eighth place, Proud Mary with Taraji P. Henson had a muted start with $11.7 million, well under my $18.5 million projection.

Pitch Perfect 3 was ninth with $7.3 million. My prediction? $7.3 million. Woot woot. The three-quel is also on the cusp of nine figures with $96 million.

I incorrectly had Darkest Hour outside the top 10, but it placed 10th with $5.4 million and $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 15th Edition

We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:

  • Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category,  replacing Steven Spielberg.
  • Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
  • Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
  • In more good news for Three Billboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
  • Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.

You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Get Out (PR: 6)

6. The Post (PR: 5)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. Darkest Hour (PR: 13)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Molly’s Game (PR: 14)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

9. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

7. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 7)

9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hostiles (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Beguiled

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)

7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 2)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 5)

5. The Insult (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square (PR: 6)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. On Body and Soul (PR: 8)

9. Felicite (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 3)

4. Icarus (PR: 5)

5. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 6)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)

8. LA 92 (PR: 9)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Human Flow (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ex Libris: The New York Public Library

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. The Post (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

7. Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Mudbound (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

8. Downsizing (PR: 9)

9. The Post (PR: 7)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 5)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 8)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bright (PR: 4)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 6)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

8. Coco (PR: 8)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coco (PR: 8)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 9)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 2)

3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 3)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 5)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture –

14 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

The Post

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Get Out, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Mudbound

3 Nominations

Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Baby Driver

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, The Big Sick, Victoria and Abdul, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, Icarus, City of Ghosts

See you next week!

Box Office Predictions: January 12-15

It’s our third four-day weekend in four frames as the MLK holiday is Monday and there’s four new pictures debuting wide. They are: family geared sequel Paddington 2, Steven Spielberg Oscar hopeful The Post, Liam Neeson thriller The Commuter, and Taraji  P. Henson action flick Proud Mary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

None are likely to dislodge Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle from its perch atop the charts. The MLK weekend typically sees minor drops from the previous one. As to which newbie garners the most cash… well, that’s an excellent question. I’m giving Paddington the slightest edge over The Post for the two spot. I also anticipate a healthy debut for Proud Mary over The Commuter, which could open outside the top 5 depending on the Star Wars hold.

As for the current #2, Insidious: The Last Key, it could fall to 7th after an impressive premiere (more on that below). Horror pics historically suffer more precipitous drops than other genres. Lots to consider on this unpredictable weekend and here are my top ten estimates for Friday through Monday:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

2. Paddington 2

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Proud Mary

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

7. Insidious: The Last Key

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

8. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 8%)

9. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 28%)

10. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 15%)

Box Office Results (January 5–7)

As expected, Jumanji vaulted over Star Wars in its third weekend to #1 with $37.2 million, easily outpacing my $29.1 million forecast for $245 million overall. The 90s reboot is performing fantastically and should continue its reign this weekend.

The other story of the weekend was the terrific performance of Insidious: The Last Key,  exceeding all expectations at $29.5 million in second compared to my meager $18.6 million estimate. It’s yet another success story for Blumhouse after a sizzling 2017.

The Last Key dropped The Last Jedi to third with $23.7 million, in line with my $24.8 million projection. Episode VIII has taken in $572 million.

The Greatest Showman continued its nice run in fourth with $13.7 million (I was lower at $10.6 million) for $76 million total.

Finally, Pitch Perfect 3 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million (I said $8 million) to bring its coffers to $86 million.

And that does it for now folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 5-7

The first full weekend of 2018 begins with one major new release – Insidious: The Last Key, the fourth entry in the Blumhouse horror franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/28/insidious-the-last-key-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the newbie looks poised for a third place showing. The top two should be held by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. However, unlike the last two weekends, I don’t see it in that order.

Jumanji came within a half million dollars of unseating Jedi for the four-day New Year’s weekend. I’ll predict it has a smaller percentage drop and rises to the top spot in weekend #3.

I also see The Greatest Showman vaulting above Pitch Perfect 3 to stay in the #4 position.

Here’s my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Insidious: The Last Key

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (December 29-January 1)

The year ended with a box office photo finish between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, adding some excitement as Luke Skywalker and company nearly were knocked off their #1 perch.

Jedi managed to take the top spot with $66.8 million (below my four-day estimate of $77.8 million) to bring its total to $531 million. While this is well below what Force Awakens earned, Jedi did become 2017’s highest grossing film over Disney’s Beauty and the Beast.

Jumanji was right behind with $66.3 million (topping my $58 million forecast) for a total of $185 million thus far. As mentioned above, look for this to vault to #1 this weekend.

Pitch Perfect 3 was third with $21.6 million compared to my $25.1 million prediction in its second weekend for a $68 million overall gross.

The Greatest Showman was close behind in fourth with $20.9 million, displaying great legs and easily eclipsing my $14.9 million projection. It’s at $54 million overall.

Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $14.8 million (I said $12.5 million) for $57 million total.

Coco was sixth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) for a $182 million tally.

All the Money in the World took the seven spot with a solid $7.2 million compared to my $5.2 million prediction for $14 million thus far.

Darkest Hour was eighth with $7 million (I said $7.3 million) and $19 million total.

Downsizing was ninth at $6.2 million (I said $6.1 million) for $16 million overall while The Shape of Water was 11th at $4.7 million (I said $5.7 million) and it’s also made $16 million.

I incorrectly had Father Figures outside the top ten, but it was 10th with $4.9 million and $14 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 2nd Edition

Back at it again with my first 2018 predictions for the Oscars! We are just three weeks away from the reveal of the nominations. On Sunday, a large awards precursor will occur when the Golden Globes air…

Here’s the major developments this week –

  • For the first time, I’m switching from a predicted nine pictures being nominated to eight. Why? Well, part of it is selfish. I feel rather confident about the eight features predicted. The nine (or ten) spot could be a mix of Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or Mudbound. Perhaps one or two of them sneak in. For now, they’re all out.
  • Speaking of The Big Sick, I’ve finally put it in the Original Screenplay predictions, which leaves out The Post. 

While there’s no changes in the acting races, let’s see how the next three weeks play out. For now, my initial 2018 estimates…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

6. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

7. Get Out (PR: 6)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

11. Mudbound (PR: 11)

12. The Big Sick (PR: 13)

13. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All the Money in the World

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 6)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)

9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 6)

8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Rylance, Dunkirk 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)

9. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)

9. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Beguiled 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 1)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: 4)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

8. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Ferdinand (PR: 9)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)

9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. Loveless (PR: 4)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)

4. The Insult (PR: 6)

5. The Square (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. In the Fade (PR: 5)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. Felicite (PR: 8)

9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 5)

4. Strong Island (PR: 7)

5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Icarus (PR: 3)

7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: Not Ranked)

8. LA 92 (PR: 4)

9. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)

10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Human Flow

An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

9. Get Out (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

7. Mudbound (PR: 6)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

10. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. Downsizing (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 5)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mt9m5vmIYw8

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 9)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 5)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31gLNgQ-p00

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 2)

3. Bright (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

4. I, Tonya (PR: 3)

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Okja (PR: 7)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPhFSxSIUXM

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 6)

8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coco (PR: 10)

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour 

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

8. Coco (PR: 10)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JK723GRvJE

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

9. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)

3. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 7)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)

And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

3 Nominations

Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, Get Out, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Downsizing, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, War for the Planet of the Apes

1 Nomination

Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Bright, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, The Square, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Strong Island, Long Strange Trip

2017: The Year of Gal Gadot and Patty Jenkins

At the beginning of summer 2017, if you’d told most box office prognosticators like me that Wonder Woman would outdo the Guardians of the Galaxy and Spider-Man that season, they would have thought your Lasso of Truth was defective.

That’s exactly what happened this year as the highest profile female comic book adaptation yet turned into the summer’s biggest hit. It will end up as the 3rd highest earner of the calendar year after Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Beauty and the Beast. 

Much of the credit goes to Gal Gadot, who was first seen as the character in last year’s not so well received Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. However, the inclusion of Gadot’s Wonder Woman and her take on the iconic character was seen as one of the film’s bright spots.

Her solo pic was not expected to gross $412 million domestically, but that it did. That’s more than the aforementioned Marvel heroes and also Thor. And, yes, it’s bigger than November’s Justice League, which also included her character.

Much credit is also due to Patty Jenkins, who crafted one of the most critically acclaimed comic adaptations. It’s even generating some Oscar buzz. Her directorial effort marks (by far) the most box office bucks a female director has ever achieved.

While Justice League was a slight damper on Wonder Woman’s cinematic portfolio thus far, it certainly should not tamper excitement for the sequel coming in November 2019. And you can credit the director and lead actress for making that happen in 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z15VGUFCnjo

Box Office Predictions: December 29-January 1

Well folks – here we are as 2017 closes out with another four-day holiday weekend and it’s enough to make a great mathematician’s head spin.

Blogger’s note: I am not a great mathematician. Nevertheless, I will plow forward with estimates as there’s no new releases. Yet there are a multitude of holiday holdovers looking to match or even surpass what they accomplished this past Christmas weekend.

You have to travel all the way to 2006 for the last time Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a Monday. When that occurred 11 years ago, the bulk of pictures significantly exceeded the three-day grosses from the December 22-24 frame. Most even experienced an uptick from the Yuletide four-day frame. We should see that happen again as moviegoers have lots of free time during this end of year period, they’re using those gift certificates, and the kiddos are off school.

Here’s how I have the top 10 looking to close out another year on the box office charts:

**Please note that the increases noted would be from the three-day Christmas grosses (22-24) to the four-day New Year’s weekend predictions…

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $77.8 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $58 million (representing an increase of 59%)

3. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million (representing an increase of 26%)

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing an increase of 69%)

5. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 71%)

6. Coco

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 82%)

7. Darkest Hour

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing an increase of 88%)

8. Downsizing

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

9. The Shape of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing an increase of 90%)

10. All the Money in the World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 22-25)

It was indeed a bustling Christmas weekend as some newbies rose above expectations while others fell considerably short. There were also impressive expansions of awards contenders.

Yet as anticipated, Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily took the top spot in weekend #2. However, it did so with numbers far short of my estimate. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise took in $99 million (well short of my $129 million estimate) for an overall tally of $395 million.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gave Sony reason to celebrate with an estimated (final number still not in on Wednesday at noon for some reason) $55.4 million over the four-day. This tops my $40.5 million prediction. Since its Wednesday debut, Jungle has amassed $72 million (above my $55.1 million take). It would appear this franchise will continue on.

Pitch Perfect 3 opened in third to a decent $26.4 million. Still, that’s under my $33.6 million forecast and well under what its predecessor achieved two years ago.

Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman posted fourth with $14.4 million for the four-day and $19 million since its Wednesday start. These are a touch under my respective estimates of $16.1 million and $22.4 million. That’s a tad underwhelming, but I see it holding up well this weekend.

Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $11.2 million) for a $29 million overall tally.

Coco was sixth with $8.1 million (I said $8.8 million) as the Pixar flick has grossed $164 million total.

Debuting in seventh and quite disappointingly was Matt Damon’s Downsizing at just $7.6 million compared to my $11.7 million prediction. With mixed critical reaction and poor word-of-mouth, look for this to diminish fast.

Darkest Hour, which boasts Best Actor Oscar front-runner Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, was 8th as it expanded its theater count. It grossed $5.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 10.

Besides Downsizing, the other new flop of the weekend was Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. The poorly reviewed pic opened ninth at just $5.4 million (under my $8.6 million estimate).

The Shape of Water (another Oscar contender) took 10th as it opened wider with $4.4 million. Again, I missed the mark and had this outside the top 10.

And that does it for now, ladies and gents! It’s been quite a treat bringing you my box office predictions for 2017 and it will continue into 2018! Until then…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: Christmas Edition

Merry Christmas loyal blog readers! It may be Christmas, but it’s still Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in…

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 5)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 11)

11. Mudbound (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. The Big Sick (PR: 15)

14. All the Money in the World (PR: 13)

15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 10)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 6)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Best Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 10)

10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

7. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonder (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. All the Money in the World (PR: 5)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 8)

8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)

9. Ferdinand (PR: 9)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. The Square (PR: 2)

3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 4)

4. Loveless (PR: 3)

5. In the Fade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Insult (PR: 6)

7. The Wound (PR: 7)

8. Felicite (PR: 8)

9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Icarus (PR: 3)

4. LA 92 (PR: 8)

5. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

7. Strong Island (PR: 6)

8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Chasing Coral (PR: 10)

10. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

One of Us

Best Film Editing

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 3)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 10)

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Lady Bird

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Post (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

7. The Post (PR: 5)

8. Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Wonderstruck

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

5. The Beguiled (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

7. The Post (PR: 4)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Wonder (PR: 3)

3. I, Tonya (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

6. Bright (PR: 5)

7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 6)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

7. Okja (PR: 9)

8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)

9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman (PR: 5)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

9. Spider–Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)

10. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

8. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman

Transformers: The Last Knight

Best Original Score

1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)

5. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)

7. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)

8. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)

9. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power

That leaves me with the following Yuletide nomination count –

11 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

8 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya

3 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Mudbound, Wonder, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver

1 Nomination

Downsizing, The Big Sick, Molly’s Game, Murder on the Orient Express, The Beguiled, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, A Fantastic Woman, Loveless, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, LA 92, City of Ghosts

I shall return with New Years Day predictions! Stay tuned…

Box Office Predictions: December 22-25

Well, it’s Christmas week at the box office and that creates one busy time with FIVE new pictures debuting either Wednesday or Friday. They are: fantasy action reboot/sequel Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle with Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart, musical comedy sequel Pitch Perfect 3, Hugh Jackman’s musically inclined The Greatest Showman, Matt Damon’s sci-fi dramedy Downsizing, and Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. You can read my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/11/jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/pitch-perfect-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/12/the-greatest-showman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/13/downsizing-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/14/father-figures-box-office-prediction/

It doesn’t end there. Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, the well-publicized crime drama due to its recasting of Kevin Spacey debuts on Christmas Day (Monday). Its grosses will only factor in for its one day earnings this weekend. I’ll predict $3.2 million, which should put it outside the top 10.

And there are awards hopefuls expanding their theater counts. Both The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour are expected to do so. Either of them (especially Water) could factor into the top 10 based on the number of screens. However, I’m not including either (yet) without theater counts. I’ll revise my top 10 if they creep in.

As I see it, Jumanji is riding a wave of good buzz and decent reviews and I have it placing second. Pitch Perfect 3 is its most serious competitor and part 2 did totally unexpected numbers a couple of years back. I still have it third.

The rest of the top five could be filled with other newbies The Greatest Showman and Downsizing. The Christmas weekend often sees meager drops for holdovers, especially for family fare. That could benefit both Ferdinand and Coco. The former could stay in the top 5 depending on how Downsizing performs.

And then we get to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which just had the 2nd highest domestic opening of all time (more on that below). Over the last two Christmas weekends, we’ve seen both Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story enter their sophomore weekends and experience drops in the high 30s. It’s worth noting that the Awakens dip was over a three-day weekend and not 2017’s four-day frame. I still foresee Jedi dwindling about 39% for what should easily be a return weekend atop the charts.

Whew. OK… and with that, my top 10 predictions for the four-day holiday frame:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $129 million (representing a drop of 41%)

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $40.5 million (Friday to Monday), $55.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)

3. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $33.6 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)

5. Downsizing

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

6. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 16%)

7. Coco 

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 12%)

8. Father Figures

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

9. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 14%)

10. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 11%)

**The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour screen counts could alter top ten on Thursday (12/21)

Box Office Results (December 15-17)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi had no trouble landing the second biggest opening ever behind its predecessor The Force Awakens. The eighth episode in the vaunted franchise took in $220 million, right on target with $219.7 million prediction. Disney should be ecstatic with this result. Jedi should easily top the box office for the foreseeable future.

The Jedi effect caused some newcomers and holdovers to fall below my estimates. Animated Ferdinand debuted in second with $13.4 million, under my $18.6 million projection. The good news? As seen above, it should experience a nice hold entering this weekend.

Coco was third with $9.9 million (I was a bit higher at $11.2 million) for $150 million total.

Wonder was in the four spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to bring its earnings to $109 million.

Justice League rounded out the top 5 with $4.3 million (I said $4.2 million) for $219 million overall.

Daddy’s Home 2 was sixth with $3.8 million. I incorrectly held it outside the top 6. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg sequel has made $96 million and should easily cross the century mark this weekend.

Finally, I incorrectly had The Disaster Artist in my top 6, but it suffered a hefty decline and placed 8th with $2.7 million compared to my more generous $4.3 million. The James Franco pic stands at $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… and Merry Christmas from your trusty blogger!

 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.

Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:

  • Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
  • Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
  • In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
  • In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
  • In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
  • The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
  • The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. The Post (PR: 4)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Get Out (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mudbound (PR: 11)

11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zpGLYm1cY4

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)

9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Breathe

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)

7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)

9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)

10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder (PR: 5)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P2VkJuYr8A

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Get Out (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)

8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Boss Baby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu-3DRFO6-s

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)

2. The Square (PR: 3)

3. Loveless (PR: 5)

4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

5. In the Fade (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Insult (PR: 8)

7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BPM (Beats Per Minute)

First, They Killed My Father

Thelma

The Divine Order

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Faces Places (PR: 2)

3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)

5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 5)

7. One of Us (PR: 7)

8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)

10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

10. Get Out (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Call Me by Your Name

Detroit

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Wonderstruck

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

3. Wonder (PR: 4)

 

Other Possibilities:

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beauty and the Beast

Phantom Thread 

Logan

The Shape of Water

The Greatest Showman

Blade Runner 2049

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

It

 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Beauty and the Beast

Wonder Woman

Thor: Ragnarok 

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

8. The Post (PR: 9)

9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

The Greatest Showman 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1fOJ8sghp4

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)

8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2gkVzCUwdw

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)

9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)

10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)

That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

The Post

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

Lady Bird

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast

3 Nominations

Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

1 Nomination

Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip

My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!