Three potential heavy hitters open this joint President’s/Valentine’s Day weekend: R rated superhero pic Deadpool, Ben Stiller comedy sequel Zoolander No. 2, and Dakota Johnson rom com How to Be Single. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
The new trio is likely to place 1-3 on the charts with current two week champ Kung Fu Panda 3 slipping to fourth and Hail, Caesar! probably rounding out the top five after a fairly lackluster debut.
Deadpool seems to be the one generating the most heat and it should dominate with Zoolander and Single in a close contest for second. With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
**Please note these predictions are for the three day weekend and do not include the Monday President’s Day…
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $58.2 million
2. Zoolander No. 2
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. How to Be Single
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Hail, Caesar!
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (February 5-7)
As expected, Dreamworks animated Kung Fu Panda 3 stayed atop the charts while all three newcomers came in below my estimates. Panda earned $21.2 million, right in line with my $21.6M projection for a two week total of $69 million.
The Coen Brothers star studded comedy Hail, Caesar! had a ho hum $11.3 million debut, under my $14.3M prediction. While critics were mostly happy with it, Cinemascore audiences only gave it a dismal C- grade – hence my projection that it will lose over half its audience next weekend.
Holdovers Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant essentially tied for third, with each earning $6.9 million. The Revenant (which was officially fourth) came in a bit below my $8.3M estimate and its total is at $149M. I incorrectly had Star Wars (officially third) outside of the top five and it has amassed $905M at press time.
The Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice had a limp debut in fifth with $6 million. I gave it too much credit with $9.6M. Same goes for newbie Pride and Prejudice and Zombies which placed sixth with only $5.3 million compared to my $8.1M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new offerings open up Friday to challenge current champ Kung Fu Panda 3: star studded Coen Brothers comedy Hail, Caesar!, Nicholas Sparks novel adaptation The Choice, and genre mashup Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, none of these newbies is likely to keep Panda from remaining on top for a second consecutive weekend. In fact, box office numbers should take a hit this weekend, especially on Sunday when the main competition comes from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton.
Caesar! looks best positioned for the runner-up spot while Choice and Pride could fight it out with holdover The Revenant (and possibly Star Wars) for the rest of the top five. And with that, my predictions for the Super Bowl weekend (I’m going Carolina over Denver 38-24 by the way):
Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. Hail, Caesar!
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. The Choice
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
Box Office Results (January 29-31)
As expected, Dreamworks Animated Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the charts with a solid $41.2 million, right in line with my $41.7M estimate. The threequel did post the lowest debut for the series so far.
Second place belonged to The Revenant with $12.7 million in its fourth weekend of wide release. It outpaced my $9.8 million prediction and its total stands at $138M.
Third place was Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $11.1 million, ahead of my $8.6M forecast for a cumultation of $895M.
The Finest Hours got off to a weak start (especially with a reported $80M budget) at $10.2 million for fourth place. My prediction? $10.2 million!
Fifth place was holdover Ride Along 2 at $8.4 million for a $70M total. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I gave way too much credit to the Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black. I had it opening second with $16 million. It opened tenth with a pathetic $5.9M. Oops. I’ll take solace in my great guesses for Panda and Hours.
Last (and least): the Natalie Portman Western Jane Got a Gun, which bombed terribly with only $835K for a 17th place showing, less than half my apparently generous $1.7 million projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The final weekend of January brings four new offerings to the multiplexes: animated threequel Kung Fu Panda 3, Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black, true life rescue drama The Finest Hours, and Western Jane Got a Gun with Natalie Portman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:
As I see it, Panda should have no trouble topping the charts with Fifty Shades coming in as a distant runner-up. The Revenant and Star Wars could find themselves in a competition for the three and four spots with The Finest Hours, which I have underperforming (especially considering its reported $80M budget). As for Jane, opening on just approximately 550 screens, my $1.7 million estimate for it should leave it outside the top ten.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $41.7 million
2. Fifty Shades of Black
Predicted Gross: $16 million
3. The Finest Hours
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
Box Office Results (January 22-24)
In a slow weekend where the winter storms in D.C. and NYC likely had a negative impact, Leonardo DiCaprio moved up to #1 with The Revenant. The potential Oscar favorite took in $16 million (under my $19.6M prediction) for a total of $119M.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens was second with $14 million, a bit under my $15.9M estimate and its record setting total now sits at $879M.
Last week’s champ Ride Along 2 suffered a huge drop in weekend #2 with $12.4 million (below my $16.8M projection). The Kevin Hart/Ice Cube sequel stands at $58 million and is unlikely to reach $100M – pretty disappointing considering the original just two years ago took in $134M.
A trio of newcomers all failed to make a splash and populated the 4-6 spots. All three opened a bit under my projections. The critically savaged Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa placed fourth with $11.6 million (I said $14.6M).
Fifth place was British horror pic The Boy with a muted $10.7 million (my projection was $12.1M). Sixth place was YA adventure flick The 5th Wave with just $10.3 million (I said $11.4M). Look for all three to fade quickly.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new titles open Friday to challenge Ride Along 2, The Revenant, and Star Wars at the box office: Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa, British horror pic The Boy, and YA thriller The 5th Wave. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Any one of these newbies (especially Grandpa or The Boy in my view) could over perform, but as predicted I have this trio all debuting in the $11-$14 million range. I am also speculating that current champ Ride Along 2 (which didn’t match the gross of its predecessor) is likely to dip over 50%. That should leave The Revenant (fresh off receiving the most Oscar nominations) in a position to get to #1 after two weeks in the runner up position and Star Wars in a position to potentially remain in third.
And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
2. Ride Along 2
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Dirty Grandpa
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
5. The Boy
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
6. The 5th Wave
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
Box Office Results (January 15-17)
As expected, the return of Kevin Hart and Ice Cube in Ride Along 2 debuted atop the charts, finally knocking off Star Wars. Yet it didn’t earn quite as much as its predecessor did on the same weekend two years ago. The sequel posted $35.2 million, under my $45.5M prediction. Over the four day MLK day, it’s made $41M while the original made over $48M in 2014.
After a dozen Oscar nods, The Revenant held up remarkably well with $31.7 million, skyrocketing past my $21.4M estimate. Leo and the Bear clearly benefited immensely from the Academy buzz and its terrific total stands at $95M.
Star Wars finally fell closer to Earth after four weeks on top with $26.3 million (I said $23.9M) and its record setting total is at $858M.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi had a so-so start with $16.1 million for fourth place, well under my kind $29.3M projection. Its 4 day MLK haul: $19.2M. Not bad, but for a film that generated heavy publicity, it’s a bit underwhelming.
Daddy’s Home was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $9.5 million and sits at $131M.
The animated Arctic tale Norm of the North was sixth, premiering with a weak $6.8 million compared to my $9.3 estimate. Its 4 day MLK take? $9.3 million (of course).
And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…
It’s been two days since the Oscar nominations came out, allowing some time to pass to digest what and who is being recognized. After numerous posts prognosticating the nominations, we now arrive at this question: What Will Win??
Today brings my initial round of guesses on the movies and performers that I believe will get their gold statues. I will definitely have a second and final round posted probably two to three days before the February ceremony.
Let’s get to it:
BEST PICTURE
First off, there are four selections that basically should be happy with the nomination: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room. Mad Max: Fury Road is a major long shot. That leaves a three picture race and indeed it is. Between The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight – this is truly a competitive category this time around. I’m currently giving the ever so slight edge to Spotlight, which has been considered the soft front runner for a while now. Be warned though: the other two are hot on its heels.
PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Tom McCarthy’s work in Spotlight could be honored with outside chances for Adam McKay (The Big Short) or George Miller (Mad Max). Lenny Abrahamson’s surprise nomination for Room succeeded in screwing up people’s predictions. He has no chance to win. Yet I’ll go with the Academy honoring Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s direction in The Revenant, just one year after he received the prize for Birdman.
PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu
BEST ACTOR
We will make this simple: it appears that Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to win a statue for The Revenant. He is the very heavy favorite and if he doesn’t emerge victorious, it would probably constitute the largest upset of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DiCaprio
BEST ACTRESS
Like lead Actor, there is a front runner here with Brie Larson in Room. Unlike Actor, the possibility for an upset is real with both Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Saoirse Ronan. I’ll stick with Larson though. Cate Blanchett (Carol) and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) seem like non factors.
PREDICTED WINNER: Larson
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This was an incredibly difficult category to predict with about 12 performances in the running. Now that we know the nominees, this is a race ripe for an upset. Any of the five – Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed) – are feasible recipients. Rylance has won some precursors, but like the Golden Globes, I’ll project that sentimentality wins out with Stallone standing center stage.
PREDICTED WINNER: Stallone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
No major front runner here but Alicia Vikander had a great year with another heralded role in Ex Machina. I’ll predict her work in The Danish Girl eeks out a win over Rooney Mara (Carol), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Globes winner Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).
PREDICTED WINNER: Vikander
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Short and sweet here – Spotlight is the heavy front runner here and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win here. I’m much more confident in predicting a victory for it here than in Picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Martian or Room have outside shots, but this looks like a win for The Big Short.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa has its hardcore fans, but Pixar’s Inside Out is the big favorite.
PREDICTED WINNER: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Easy pick. Son of Saul is a huge front runner. Mustang is the only completion.
PREDICTED WINNER: Son of Saul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy, chronicling the career of the late singer Amy Winehouse, is the favorite. For now, however, I’m going with an upset pick in the form of Cartel Land.
PREDICTED WINNER: Cartel Land
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The legendary John Williams could be in the running for his latest Star Wars score, but I’ll predict the Academy honors another legend: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Hateful Eight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Was very surprised to see “See You Again” from Furious 7 snubbed. To me, that would have been the main competition for “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground, performed by Lady Gaga.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
BEST SOUND EDITING
I believe these sound categories will come down to a battle between Mad Max and Star Wars, with The Revenant as a spoiler. For now, I’m splitting the difference.
PREDICTED WINNER: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST SOUND MIXING
See above.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Once again, I see this as a contest between Chewbacca and Max. I’ll give Max the slight edge.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
This is another tough one with Mad Max maintaining a small edge over The Revenant and The Martian.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Hateful Eight stands a chance here, as does Mad Max. However, I believe Emmanuel Lubezki will take home his third Oscar in a row for The Revenant.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Revenant
BEST EDITING
This race often matches Picture and could here with Spotlight. The Big Short, Mad Max, and The Revenant are in the mix. This is practically a coin flip for me right now so don’t be shocked if this changes.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Only three nominees here and Mad Max and The Revenant are likely the only two winner possibilities.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell could split her own vote between Carol and Cinderella. Mad Max and The Danish Girl are in the running, but I’ll go with Powell and her work in Carol.
PREDICTED WINNER: Carol
And there you have it! My first Oscar winner predictions.
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
The four week reign of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is likely to end this MLK weekend at three new entries join the box office fray: Kevin Hart/Ice Cube action comedy sequel Ride Along 2, Michael Bay’s true life military pic 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, and Arctic animated kid flick Norm of the North. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Ride Along 2 shouldn’t have much trouble topping the charts and I’m projecting that 13 Hours will finish strong in the runner-up spot. That would push Star Wars and Golden Globe favorite The Revenant to third and fourth, unless Norm earns more than my estimate. Otherwise, I have it rounding out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Ride Along 2
Predicted Gross: $45.5 million
2. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Predicted Gross: $29.3 million
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $23.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. Norm of the North
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (January 8-10)
In what was a closer than expected battle for #1, Star Wars: The Force Awakens held for the fourth week in a row with $42.3 million (below my $51.6M prediction). The juggernaut also became the highest grossing domestic earner of all time and its total stands at $812M.
#2 belong to freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Revenant, which expanded nationwide to a terrific $39.8 million, bearing past my $33.2M estimate. The Leonardo DiCaprio wilderness tale exceeded expectations and with its likely Oscar nominations coming Thursday, it should be in for a solid run ahead.
Daddy’s Home was third with $15 million (a bit shy of my $16.8M projection) for a three week haul of $116M. The critically panned horror pic The Forest actually did pretty well in fourth with a $12.7 million debut (I said $8.7M). Look for it fade quickly, however.
I incorrectly had The Hateful Eight in fourth with $10.5 million, but it fell a troubling 59% to sixth place in its sophomore weekend with $6.4 million for a lackluster total of $41M. That allowed Sisters with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler to keep chugging along in fifth with $7.1 million for a $73M total.
And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…
**OK, one last thing. This blog is about movies as you know, with an occasional dip into the world of music. As movies continue to inspire me everyday, so have legions of musicians that I’ve had the pleasure of listening to all these years. As a young child, I’ll never forget wearing out the record (yes, record) of “Let’s Dance” by one David Bowie (and there was truly only one David Bowie). As I got older, I came to truly appreciate and adore his entire catalog. What a brilliant artist he was. May he rest among the stars.
We have arrived at my weekly Friday predictions for who and what will be nominated for the Oscars honoring 2015 pictures. This will be the last Friday I’ll be doing so because the nominations themselves come out this Thursday, January 14th. I will have one final post of predictions either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
One consistent source of consternation is whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in lead Actress or Supporting Actress for Carol (same goes, to a lesser degree, for Alicia Vikander’s work in The Danish Girl). Last week, I had her in Actress, but now I’m switching back to Supporting. We shall see. As with my posts every week, it will show where the movers and shakers have shifted around with chances of nomination.
So here goes… my penultimate Oscar predictions…
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Room (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (+1)
Carol (-2)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (+3)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Inside Out (-2)
14. Sicario (+4)
15. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Trumbo (+2)
18. Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
19. The Danish Girl (+1)
20. Son of Saul (-5)
21. Creed (-4)
DROPPED OUT: Anomalisa
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (-1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (No Change)
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (+3)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed, Mad Max: Fury Road (moved to Original)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (+1)
The Good Dinosaur (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie (-2)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Minions
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Good Dinosaur. Out: The Peanuts Movie.
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Brooklyn (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. Cinderella (-1)
8. MacBeth (+3)
9. The Revenant (-1)
10. Far From the Madding Crowd (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Brooklyn. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Carol (+1)
8. The Assassin (Previously Unranked)
9. Son of Saul (-2)
DROPPED OFF: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Brooklyn (+1)
Cinderella (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Suffragette (+3)
8. Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. MacBeth (-2)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. Mad Max: Fury Road (-5)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (+5)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Spotlight (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Jobs (-1)
7. Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Room (+4)
9. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Sicario (-4)
11. Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Carol
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Big Short. Out: Steve Jobs.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Black Mass (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
Other Possibilities:
4. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+2)
5. Concussion (-1)
6. Mr. Holmes (-1)
7. Legend (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Martian (+2)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Sicario (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (-2)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (+1)
The Martian (-1)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Previously Unranked)
9. Everest (-1)
DROPPED OFF: The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (No Change)
8. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
DROPPED OFF: Inside Out, The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (+1)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: “Love Me Like You Do”. Out: “Earned It”.
These current predictions reflect the following breakdown of films getting these numbers:
9 Nominations
Mad Max Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol, The Revenant
6 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, The Martian
5 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl
4 Nominations
The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room. Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Ex Machina, Inside Out
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, Fifty Shades of Grey, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet, Love and Mercy, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Trumbo, Youth
That’ll do it for now, folks! I’ll have my FINAL Oscar predictions up next week…
Unless Leonardo DiCaprio’s awards contender The Revenant has a much bigger than anticipated debut, it should be weekend #4 atop the charts for record breaker Star Wars: The Force Awakens on this second 2016 frame. As I see it – Han, Leia and company should garner about another $50M+ to add to its astonishing total.
The Revenant is certainly the heavy hitter newbie this weekend and it should have no trouble posting runner-up status. The weekend’s other fresh offerings are horror pic The Forest and faith based sports drama The Masked Saint. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:
The Forest should manage to place fifth unless some leftovers hold up better than my estimates while The Masked Saint may have to settle for an 11th place showing. Daddy’s Home and The Hateful Eight should populate the three and four spots.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $51.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
2. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $33.2 million
3. Daddy’s Home
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. The Hateful Eight
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. The Forest
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (January 1-3)
The Force continued to be incredibly strong as Star Wars three-peated with $90.2 million, a bit under my $98.7M projection. The acclaimed seventh episode of the iconic franchise has amassed $742M at press time and looks to become the highest domestic grosser in history on Wednesday – surpassing Avatar‘s $760M.
Daddy’s Home remained in second with $29.2 million, ahead of my $25.9M estimate for a terrific 10 day haul of $93M. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy has proven itself to be quite the breakout.
Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight expanded wide and could not match my lofty expectations. Coming in behind his previous pics Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained, the three hour pic grossed $15.7 million over the traditional three day weekend and $22.3 million since its wide Wednesday opening. While this is considerably under my $27.2M and $36.1M respective predictions, this is still a decent debut and it hopes to hold up well in subsequent frames.
The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters continued its fine run in fourth with $12.7 million (outpacing my $9.2M estimate) for a three week total of $61M. It could manage to reach close to the century mark and maybe even top it.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip held up solidly in weekend #3 with $12 million for fifth, ahead of my $9.1M projection for a total of $67M.
The David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy was sixth in its second weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.7M estimate. Its just OK two week cume is at $38M.
In seventh was Oscar contender The Big Short, holding nicely at $9 million (above my $7.8M guess) for a tally of $33M. A potential Golden Globe win this coming weekend in the Musical/Comedy race could help continue its sterling performance.
Will Smith’s underwhelming Concussion was eighth with $7.8 million (I was in the ballpark with $8.6M) for ten days earnings of $25M.
Point Break held up stronger than my $5.4M estimate with $6.8 million for a still weak 10 day tally of only $22M.
Rounding out the top ten was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 at $4.6 million (I said $3.6M) for a $274M overall gross.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).
A couple of quick notes on various races:
There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.
And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
Room (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-3)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)
11. Inside Out (-2)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)
14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
15. Son of Saul (+2)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Creed (-2)
18. Sicario (+1)
19. Trumbo (-5)
20. The Danish Girl (No Change)
21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)
11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)
12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)
14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)
DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)
10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)
12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)
9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Joan Allen, Room (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)
10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
7. Love and Mercy (+2)
8. 99 Homes (-1)
9. Son of Saul (-1)
10. Sicario (No Change)
11. Joy (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: Youth
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (+1)
Room (+1)
Carol (-2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+2)
8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
9. Anomalisa (+1)
10. Trumbo (-2)
11. Creed (+2)
12. The Danish Girl (No Change)
13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Son of Saul (-2)
8. Carol (-1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Revenant (+2)
Spotlight (-2)
The Martian (+2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)
7. The Big Short (-4)
8. Bridge of Spies (-1)
9. The Hateful Eight (-1)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
11. Carol (Previously Unranked)
12. Room (-3)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.
Best Production Design
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cinderella (No Change)
7. Brooklyn (-3)
8. The Revenant (+1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)
11. MacBeth (-1)
DROPPED OUT: The Martian
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.
Best Costume Design
Carol (+1)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Cinderella (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
8. MacBeth (+1)
9. The Revenant (+1)
10. Suffragette (-4)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+4)
Black Mass (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)
5. Mr. Holmes (+2)
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)
7. Legend (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Martian (-1)
In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (No Change)
7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
Ex Machina (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
7. The Walk (-1)
8. Everest (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (+1)
8. Inside Out (+1)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
“So Long” from Concussion (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)
7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!
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