After headlining the summer comic book hit Suicide Squad, Will Smith switches to drama mode in the holiday season with Collateral Beauty. Out next weekend, the pic casts the Fresh Prince as a father who loses his child and begins writing letters to events and feelings such as Love, Death, and Time. It turns out those things are embodied by real people and some of them are famous actors. Costars include Edward Norton, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Naomie Harris, and Michael Pena. David Frankel, who’s had his hits (The Devil Wears Prada, Marley & Me) and misses (The Big Year anyone?), directs.
The trailers for Beauty leave no doubt that this aims to be a tearjerker appealing to an adult (and probably more female) crowd. Word of mouth could cause this to play well throughout the Christmas season. For its opening, I don’t anticipate anything higher than to low to possibly mid teens. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is opening against it and I think it’s a rather safe bet it will dominate the charts and possibly siphon away some of the females Beauty is looking to attract.
Though they are certainly not apples to apples comparisons, I could actually see this performing similarly to last year’s Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. That pic also opened against the Star Wars franchise (in the form of The Force Awakens) at $13.9 million and subsequently managed to perform admirably from weekend to weekend. I’ll predict this falls a couple million under that.
Collateral Beauty opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my Rogue One: A Star Wars Story prediction, click here:
The saga continues in the most powerful franchise force in movie history when RogueOne: AStarWarsStory hits theaters next weekend. It’s been one year since StarWars: The ForceAwakens broke a slew of box office records when Disney took over the series, including best opening of all time and highest grossing domestic earner ever.
All seven pictures that have populated the science fiction tales have been classified as Episodes as part of an ongoing story featuring some of the most beloved and feared characters (plus Jar Jar) on the silver screen. Rogue is our first spin-off and it takes place between Episodes III (2005’s RevengeoftheSith) and IV (the 1977 original ANewHope). That means it focuses on the team tasked with stealing plans for the Death Star. Felicity Jones headlines a new cast of characters that includes Forest Whitaker, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Mads Mikkelsen, Donnie Yen and Alan Tudyk. It also means the return of Darth Freakin’ Vader complete with James Earl Jones voicing him. Gareth Edwards (who lasted 2014’s successful Godzilla reboot) directs.
Simply put, the return of the franchise a year ago after ten years of dormancy couldn’t have gone much better financially. Awakens took in an astonishing $247 million out of the gate and reached a $936 million eventual domestic haul. The eagerly awaited Episode VIII will be out in the same mid-December weekend next year. RogueOne is not expected to take in what Force did last year or VIII will next year due to its spin-off status. That said, expectations are still very high.
So the question is: just how high can this go? Some reports have suggested a number between $130-$150 million and that’s certainly a feasible estimate. Yet I can’t shake a feeling that it’ll manage to get a bit more. Rogue is in the enviable position of being the first spin-off and arriving just a calendar year behind the franchise’s return to global domination. In order to accomplish 2016’s largest opening, it would need to top another huge Disney property, CaptainAmerica: CivilWar which made $179 million to kick summer off.
I don’t think it quite gets there, but generating $160-$170 million seems within reach. My estimate would give it the eighth biggest debut of all time between the final HarryPotter at $169 million and this spring’s BatmanvSuperman: DawnofJustice at $166 million. Yes, my projection is a bit higher than what I’ve seen thus far. Yet it’s StarWars, folks.
RogueOne: AStarWarsStory opening weekend prediction: $168.3 million
Four years ago on a Thursday evening, I made the snap decision to start a movie blog. I did it without much thought and with little clue what I wanted it to be.
I knew two things: I love movies and I love writing. And so I penned my first blog post. It’s called “My Love of Movies”. Look at it. Isn’t it adorable?
Yes, maybe the anniversary posts have dwindled in quality as time has passed. With every year comes the familiarity of the blog having become more of a reality. More of everyday life. What I’m writing at this moment is my 1,516th post.
Truth be told – 2016 hasn’t been the best year for movies. Oh, don’t get me wrong. There’s always those moments that I’ve described so lovingly in previous posts. A truly hilarious scene at an animated DMV run by sloths in Zootopia. A comic book adaptation in Deadpool that had moments of raunchy inspiration. And there’s a lot more for me to see in 2016.
Let’s get real for a second, friends. 2016 hasn’t been the best year for lots of things. Political discourse for one, but let us not go THERE.
Sequels. Too many of ’em. Too many we didn’t ask for.
Apparently Zoolander did say all that needed to be said fifteen years ago. Audiences weren’t ready to travel back to the Blair Witch woods. I could go on.
But I won’t. No, where 2016 has been truly sad is in the people we’ve lost. Hans Gruber of Die Hard is one of the greatest film villains in screen history. Alan Rickman brilliantly played him, along with lots of other amazing performances.
Gene Wilder may hold the record for appearing in the most flat out brilliant comedies, not to mention being a part of our collective childhoods in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.
Our ears have been blessed to experience the music of Prince and David Bowie and witness their contributions to film.
I know what you might be thinking… this anniversary post is a bummer, dude!
A silver lining. A consolation point. We will always have film to remind us of the aforementioned artists brilliance.
We will always have the knowledge that the cherished memories we have of them are preserved.
We will always have the knowledge, film lovers that we are, that more memories will be formed with new amazing performers.
Every week on this blog, there are more box office predictions to be estimated. More Oscar Watch movies to be discussed. More reviews to be written.
There’s always more. It’s the NeverEnding Story of film that I described here three years ago:
Are there times it feels stale when the latest unwanted sequel is rolled out? Sure.
Are there moments you wonder where else the superhero genre can possibly go when we get a new one every couple months now? Yes.
And then Star Wars: The Force Awakens turns out to be a pleasure… and not unwanted. And then Deadpool brings something new to the genre.
I remember four years ago tonight writing that first blog post and wondering if I’d have any ideas for a second one. Then I figured out what I wanted the blog to be… and it constantly changes.
I love doing it. I thank you for reading it and I’m humbled to report that 2016 has been the most viewed year so far already! I’ve also tremendously valued my partnership with Fantasy Movie League that began this year and continuing my history of getting out predicted by Joe Giuliano at box office numbers.
2016 has been a challenge for us who love the silver screen and love incredible music. We remember that vile antagonist of John McClane in my favorite action movie ever.
We remember that gentle and hilarious man who brought us into a world of pure imagination.
We remember bathing in the beautiful sounds of the Purple Rain.
And we wait for the next moments of inspiration and all the other emotions that the movies bring.
Highest Grossing Picture: Avatar (2009) – $760 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Avatar, The Fast and the Furious, Fast and Furious, Fast & Furious 6, Furious 7, S.W.A.T.)
Lowest Grosser: Battle in Seattle (2008) – $224,000
Overall Rank: 79
14. Angelina Jolie
Career Earnings: $2.1 billion
Franchises: Kung Fu Panda, Tomb Raider
Highest Grossing Picture: Maleficent (2014) – $241 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (Maleficent, Kung Fu Panda, Kung Fu Panda 2, Kung Fu Panda 3, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Shark Tale, Wanted, Lara Croft: Tomb Raider, Salt, Gone in 60 Seconds)
Lowest Grosser: Hell’s Kitchen (1999) – $11,000
Overall Rank: 68
13. Carrie Fisher
Career Earnings: $2.2 billion
Franchises: Star Wars
Highest Grossing Picture: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) – $936 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi, Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Lowest Grosser: The Time Guardian (1989) – $12,000
Overall Rank: 61
12. Sigourney Weaver
Career Earnings: $2.2 billion
Franchises: Alien, Ghostbusters
Highest Grossing Picture: Avatar (2009) – $760 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Avatar, Ghostbusters, Ghostbusters II, The Village)
Lowest Grosser: The Guys (2003) – $21,000
Overall Rank: 60
11. Kathy Bates
Career Earnings: $2.3 billion
Franchises: None
Highest Grossing Picture: Titanic (1997) – $658 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Titanic, The Blind Side, The Waterboy, Valentine’s Day)
Lowest Grosser: A Little Bit of Heaven (2010) – $15,000
Well – after months of prognosticating the nominees and the winners of the 2015 Oscars, the season officially came to a close last night. This was a truly unpredictable year at the Academy Awards and it bore out with my so-so performance at just 13/21 on predictions. There were some REAL surprises last night and plenty of races that went according to plan. Let’s break it down with my various takes on the telecast and the winners:
The three picture race for the top category was just that with Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight winning over presumed front runner The Revenant (which was my prediction). The journalistic expose won only one other category (Original Screenplay, which I correctly predicted) and it’s the first Best Picture winner to be victorious in only two categories since 1952’s The Greatest Show on Earth.
Speaking of history, expected recipient Alejandro G. Inarritu is the first Director to win (for The Revenant) twice in a row (2014’s Birdman) in 65 years.
The sixth time was finally the charm for Leonardo DiCaprio as he picked up a golden statue for The Revenant, as he was widely expected to.
The female acting competitions went according to plan: Brie Larson in Actress for Room and Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl in Supporting. Same goes for Foreign Language Film (Son of Saul), Animated Feature (Inside Out), Adapted Screenplay (The Big Short), and Documentary (Amy), even though I went with the upset pick of Cartel Land.
Sylvester Stallone was the heavy favorite in Supporting Actor for Creed, but the Academy instead went with Mark Rylance’s work in Bridge of Spies. This category has had a history of upsets (Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine over Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls circa 2006) and this is indeed another one.
It was a good night in the technical categories for George Miller’s Mad Max: Fury Road as it picked up six awards: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Production Design, Costume Design, Editing, and Makeup and Hairstyling. It was nominated in Cinematography, but that went as anticipated to The Revenant. The big shocker in the tech categories was Ex Machina‘s out of nowhere win for Visual Effects. This truly was a massive upset as I would have picked it fifth to win over competitors Mad Max, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and The Martian.
While Best Score went as planned to legendary Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight (for which he learned a long and deserved standing O), the Song category honored Sam Smith’s Spectre theme “Writing’s on the Wall” over expected winner “Til It Happens to You” by Lady Gaga from The Hunting Ground, just moments after her peformance was introduced by Vice President Joe Biden.
As for the show itself, Chris Rock’s handling of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy was handled with the edgy humor you’d expect from one of the greatest stand up comedians of all time. The telecast, per usual, was way longer than it should have been. The idea, however well intended, to allow winners to thank various people via a scroll at the bottom of the screen didn’t serve its intended purpose. Look for it to be gone next year. As solid as Rock was in his hosting duties, I couldn’t help but watch Louis C.K.’s brilliant introduction of the Best Documentary Short Subject race and hope that the Academy tabs him to host like… next year.
And there you have it! Another Oscar season that’s come and gone. Before we know it, I’ll be predicting the 2016 films and performers that could be recognized a year from now…
One week from tonight, the 88th Annual Academy Awards will air with Chris Rock hosting and unlike some other years, there is real and legitimate intrigue as to what will win the big prize in Best Picture. Meanwhile, other categories have strong front runners but upsets are always possible. So with seven days to go, here are my FINAL predictions for who will win in each categories, with the exception of the three short film races. Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
For Room, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies – it’s an honor to be nominated. This is truly a close race between the trio of The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight and any one of them could easily emerge victorious. All have won important precursors. Of the three, my gut is that Short is running third in this tight derby. All week my inclination has been to pick Spotlight, but The Revenant seems to have the hot hand in these late proceedings.
FINAL PICK: The Revenant
Runner-Up: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu looks poised to win his second directing prize in a row after 2014’s Birdman for his work in The Revenant. If so, he would be the first auteur to do that in 65 years. In my estimation, only George Miller could be an upset winner for Mad Max, but that’s doubtful. Inarritu has won the Golden Globe and the DGA and is a safe bet.
FINAL PICK: Inarritu
Runner-Up: Miller
BEST ACTOR
Speaking of safe bets involving The Revenant, Leonardo DiCaprio at last looks poised to win a gold statue. He is the heavy favorite over competitors Matt Damon, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne and Bryan Cranston.
FINAL PICK: DiCaprio
Runner-Up: Ummmm… Cranston? Seriously, Leo is a major favorite
BEST ACTRESS
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) and Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) could be spoilers, but the front runner is definitely Brie Larson’s turn in Room.
FINAL PICK: Larson
Runner-Up: Ronan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
If the Academy doesn’t go for nostalgia here, you might see Mark Rylance win for Bridge of Spies. Yet I do believe Sylvester Stallone will knock out his foes for Creed.
FINAL PICK: Stallone
Runner-Up: Rylance
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) has won some precursors and Rooney Mara (Carol) stands an outside shot, but Alicia Vikander had a big 2015 and I’ll pick her for The Danish Girl.
FINAL PICK: Vikander
Runner-Up: Winslet
For the remainder of the categories, I’m simply listing my picks with the runner-up:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
FINAL PICK: Spotlight
Runner-Up: Inside Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
FINAL PICK: The Big Short
Runner-Up: Room
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
FINAL PICK: Inside Out
Runner-Up: Anomalisa
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
FINAL PICK: Son of Saul
Runner-Up: Mustang
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
FINAL PICK: Cartel Land
Runner-Up: Amy
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
FINAL PICK: The Hateful Eight
Runner-Up: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
FINAL PICK: “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Three potential heavy hitters open this joint President’s/Valentine’s Day weekend: R rated superhero pic Deadpool, Ben Stiller comedy sequel Zoolander No. 2, and Dakota Johnson rom com How to Be Single. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
The new trio is likely to place 1-3 on the charts with current two week champ Kung Fu Panda 3 slipping to fourth and Hail, Caesar! probably rounding out the top five after a fairly lackluster debut.
Deadpool seems to be the one generating the most heat and it should dominate with Zoolander and Single in a close contest for second. With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
**Please note these predictions are for the three day weekend and do not include the Monday President’s Day…
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $58.2 million
2. Zoolander No. 2
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. How to Be Single
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Hail, Caesar!
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (February 5-7)
As expected, Dreamworks animated Kung Fu Panda 3 stayed atop the charts while all three newcomers came in below my estimates. Panda earned $21.2 million, right in line with my $21.6M projection for a two week total of $69 million.
The Coen Brothers star studded comedy Hail, Caesar! had a ho hum $11.3 million debut, under my $14.3M prediction. While critics were mostly happy with it, Cinemascore audiences only gave it a dismal C- grade – hence my projection that it will lose over half its audience next weekend.
Holdovers Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant essentially tied for third, with each earning $6.9 million. The Revenant (which was officially fourth) came in a bit below my $8.3M estimate and its total is at $149M. I incorrectly had Star Wars (officially third) outside of the top five and it has amassed $905M at press time.
The Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice had a limp debut in fifth with $6 million. I gave it too much credit with $9.6M. Same goes for newbie Pride and Prejudice and Zombies which placed sixth with only $5.3 million compared to my $8.1M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new offerings open up Friday to challenge current champ Kung Fu Panda 3: star studded Coen Brothers comedy Hail, Caesar!, Nicholas Sparks novel adaptation The Choice, and genre mashup Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, none of these newbies is likely to keep Panda from remaining on top for a second consecutive weekend. In fact, box office numbers should take a hit this weekend, especially on Sunday when the main competition comes from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton.
Caesar! looks best positioned for the runner-up spot while Choice and Pride could fight it out with holdover The Revenant (and possibly Star Wars) for the rest of the top five. And with that, my predictions for the Super Bowl weekend (I’m going Carolina over Denver 38-24 by the way):
Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. Hail, Caesar!
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. The Choice
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
Box Office Results (January 29-31)
As expected, Dreamworks Animated Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the charts with a solid $41.2 million, right in line with my $41.7M estimate. The threequel did post the lowest debut for the series so far.
Second place belonged to The Revenant with $12.7 million in its fourth weekend of wide release. It outpaced my $9.8 million prediction and its total stands at $138M.
Third place was Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $11.1 million, ahead of my $8.6M forecast for a cumultation of $895M.
The Finest Hours got off to a weak start (especially with a reported $80M budget) at $10.2 million for fourth place. My prediction? $10.2 million!
Fifth place was holdover Ride Along 2 at $8.4 million for a $70M total. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I gave way too much credit to the Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black. I had it opening second with $16 million. It opened tenth with a pathetic $5.9M. Oops. I’ll take solace in my great guesses for Panda and Hours.
Last (and least): the Natalie Portman Western Jane Got a Gun, which bombed terribly with only $835K for a 17th place showing, less than half my apparently generous $1.7 million projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The final weekend of January brings four new offerings to the multiplexes: animated threequel Kung Fu Panda 3, Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black, true life rescue drama The Finest Hours, and Western Jane Got a Gun with Natalie Portman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:
As I see it, Panda should have no trouble topping the charts with Fifty Shades coming in as a distant runner-up. The Revenant and Star Wars could find themselves in a competition for the three and four spots with The Finest Hours, which I have underperforming (especially considering its reported $80M budget). As for Jane, opening on just approximately 550 screens, my $1.7 million estimate for it should leave it outside the top ten.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $41.7 million
2. Fifty Shades of Black
Predicted Gross: $16 million
3. The Finest Hours
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
Box Office Results (January 22-24)
In a slow weekend where the winter storms in D.C. and NYC likely had a negative impact, Leonardo DiCaprio moved up to #1 with The Revenant. The potential Oscar favorite took in $16 million (under my $19.6M prediction) for a total of $119M.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens was second with $14 million, a bit under my $15.9M estimate and its record setting total now sits at $879M.
Last week’s champ Ride Along 2 suffered a huge drop in weekend #2 with $12.4 million (below my $16.8M projection). The Kevin Hart/Ice Cube sequel stands at $58 million and is unlikely to reach $100M – pretty disappointing considering the original just two years ago took in $134M.
A trio of newcomers all failed to make a splash and populated the 4-6 spots. All three opened a bit under my projections. The critically savaged Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa placed fourth with $11.6 million (I said $14.6M).
Fifth place was British horror pic The Boy with a muted $10.7 million (my projection was $12.1M). Sixth place was YA adventure flick The 5th Wave with just $10.3 million (I said $11.4M). Look for all three to fade quickly.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new titles open Friday to challenge Ride Along 2, The Revenant, and Star Wars at the box office: Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa, British horror pic The Boy, and YA thriller The 5th Wave. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Any one of these newbies (especially Grandpa or The Boy in my view) could over perform, but as predicted I have this trio all debuting in the $11-$14 million range. I am also speculating that current champ Ride Along 2 (which didn’t match the gross of its predecessor) is likely to dip over 50%. That should leave The Revenant (fresh off receiving the most Oscar nominations) in a position to get to #1 after two weeks in the runner up position and Star Wars in a position to potentially remain in third.
And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
2. Ride Along 2
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Dirty Grandpa
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
5. The Boy
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
6. The 5th Wave
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
Box Office Results (January 15-17)
As expected, the return of Kevin Hart and Ice Cube in Ride Along 2 debuted atop the charts, finally knocking off Star Wars. Yet it didn’t earn quite as much as its predecessor did on the same weekend two years ago. The sequel posted $35.2 million, under my $45.5M prediction. Over the four day MLK day, it’s made $41M while the original made over $48M in 2014.
After a dozen Oscar nods, The Revenant held up remarkably well with $31.7 million, skyrocketing past my $21.4M estimate. Leo and the Bear clearly benefited immensely from the Academy buzz and its terrific total stands at $95M.
Star Wars finally fell closer to Earth after four weeks on top with $26.3 million (I said $23.9M) and its record setting total is at $858M.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi had a so-so start with $16.1 million for fourth place, well under my kind $29.3M projection. Its 4 day MLK haul: $19.2M. Not bad, but for a film that generated heavy publicity, it’s a bit underwhelming.
Daddy’s Home was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $9.5 million and sits at $131M.
The animated Arctic tale Norm of the North was sixth, premiering with a weak $6.8 million compared to my $9.3 estimate. Its 4 day MLK take? $9.3 million (of course).
And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 