Box Office Predictions: January 8-10

Unless Leonardo DiCaprio’s awards contender The Revenant has a much bigger than anticipated debut, it should be weekend #4 atop the charts for record breaker Star Wars: The Force Awakens on this second 2016 frame. As I see it – Han, Leia and company should garner about another $50M+ to add to its astonishing total.

The Revenant is certainly the heavy hitter newbie this weekend and it should have no trouble posting runner-up status. The weekend’s other fresh offerings are horror pic The Forest and faith based sports drama The Masked Saint. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

The Forest should manage to place fifth unless some leftovers hold up better than my estimates while The Masked Saint may have to settle for an 11th place showing. Daddy’s Home and The Hateful Eight should populate the three and four spots.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $51.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

2. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $33.2 million

3. Daddy’s Home

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The Hateful Eight

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. The Forest

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

Box Office Results (January 1-3)

The Force continued to be incredibly strong as Star Wars three-peated with $90.2 million, a bit under my $98.7M projection. The acclaimed seventh episode of the iconic franchise has amassed $742M at press time and looks to become the highest domestic grosser in history on Wednesday – surpassing Avatar‘s $760M.

Daddy’s Home remained in second with $29.2 million, ahead of my $25.9M estimate for a terrific 10 day haul of $93M. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy has proven itself to be quite the breakout.

Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight expanded wide and could not match my lofty expectations. Coming in behind his previous pics Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained, the three hour pic grossed $15.7 million over the traditional three day weekend and $22.3 million since its wide Wednesday opening. While this is considerably under my $27.2M and $36.1M respective predictions, this is still a decent debut and it hopes to hold up well in subsequent frames.

The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters continued its fine run in fourth with $12.7 million (outpacing my $9.2M estimate) for a three week total of $61M. It could manage to reach close to the century mark and maybe even top it.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip held up solidly in weekend #3 with $12 million for fifth, ahead of my $9.1M projection for a total of $67M.

The David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy was sixth in its second weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.7M estimate. Its just OK two week cume is at $38M.

In seventh was Oscar contender The Big Short, holding nicely at $9 million (above my $7.8M guess) for a tally of $33M. A potential Golden Globe win this coming weekend in the Musical/Comedy race could help continue its sterling performance.

Will Smith’s underwhelming Concussion was eighth with $7.8 million (I was in the ballpark with $8.6M) for ten days earnings of $25M.

Point Break held up stronger than my $5.4M estimate with $6.8 million for a still weak 10 day tally of only $22M.

Rounding out the top ten was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 at $4.6 million (I said $3.6M) for a $274M overall gross.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…


4 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: January 8-10

  1. toddmthatcher, If it is possible and not much of an inconvenience, could you start beginning predicting the top 10 movies box office receipts? The other established professional predicting sites do this. If you are hesitant to get into this, you can make private predictions and determine if this would work well for you.

    Thank you.

  2. Well my friend, I need an outlet to make my predictions and so until we get our podcast going, I’ll be posting my opening weekend predictions with yours. I’ve got to give you a shot at beating me somehow 🙂

    Here are my predictions for the films opening wide this weekend:
    The Revenant: $29.5M
    The Forest – $8.6M

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