Illumination Entertainment has become a force in the animated world with huge hits including the Despicable Me franchise, spin-off Minions, and this summer’s The Secret Life of Pets.
They’re back at it again looking for a Christmas cash in with 3D animated musical Sing. The $75 million production should have no trouble bringing in kids and their parents over the holiday season. Singing animals is usually a decent formula for a blockbuster and this should be a strong #2 to the second weekend of Rogue One. There’s plenty of recognizable faces behind their characters including Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Seth MacFarlane, John C. Reilly, Taron Egerton, and Nick Kroll.
I’ll predict Sing takes in high 40s during the long holiday weekend while reaching mid 60s when you include its Wednesday debut.
Sing opening weekend prediction: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
There’s some serious star power coming to multiplexes this Christmas when Passengers debuts a week from today. The science fiction romantic thriller stars Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt, who have both seen their share of blockbusters over the last few years. Morten Tyldum directs (his previous effort was the Oscar nominated The Imitation Game) and costars include Laurence Fishburne, Michael Sheen, and Andy Garcia.
The reported $120 million production finds Katniss and Star Lord stranded in space when they wake up way earlier than the other inhabitants of their vessel. There may not be a whole lot of actors who can assist in opening a movie, but the combo of these two may do the trick.
Predicting exact numbers over the Christmas weekend is a tricky proposition. Passengers debuts on Wednesday and we are going to factor in Wednesday-Monday. The 26th is a federal holiday and grosses of years past have shown that to sometimes be a bigger movie going day than even Christmas. Rogue One will likely reign supreme over the long weekend with the animated Sing giving it a run for its money. That probably puts Passengers in third place with a low 30s four-day and mid 40s six-day.
Passengers opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)
As you may have heard, there’s this movie coming out on Friday called Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. It’s the first spin-off in the heralded franchise (taking place between Episodes III and IV) and the eighth entry overall in the series.
At noon sharp, the review embargo on Rogue lapsed and we’ve seen a flood of critical reactions come in this afternoon. The verdict? Pretty darn good so far. It stands at 82% at press time on Rotten Tomatoes with several reviewers calling it an action-packed ride geared more towards adult and mega-fans. Not all write-ups have been totally positive. The bottom line is this: Rogue One will not get a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Academy Awards nor will its director, Gareth Edwards.
However, that wasn’t really expected. The real question is whether or not it receives any nominations. If it didn’t, Rogue One would the first Star Wars entry not to do so. Let’s take a trip down franchise lane, shall we?
1977’s Star Wars received a whopping nine nominations and won six. The three it missed out on were all biggies and they were all to Woody Allen’s Annie Hall: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. 1980’s The Empire Strikes Back was nominated for three and was victorious in Sound Mixing. The rest of the sequels and prequels – 1983’s Return of the Jedi, 1999’s The Phantom Menace, 2002’s Attack of the Clones, 2005’s Revenge of the Sith, last year’s The Force Awakens – received a total of 14 nominations (all in technical and musical score races) and won zero.
My feeling is that Rogue One has little chance of breaking the no nomination streak. I’ve got it currently predicted for three categories: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. It also stands a shot at Original Score. Yet like the five pics before it, I would estimate it also will not win in those races.
OK – stop rolling your eyes. When Collateral Beauty (out Friday) had its trailers unveiled months ago, it was not out of the question that the film could receive some awards chatter. After all, the cast is made up of multiple Oscar winners and nominees – Will Smith, Edward Norton, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, and Keira Knightley. Maybe its director David Frankel (who’s had some hits with The Devil Wears Prada and Marley & Me) would enter a new phase of his career that included Academy attention.
So it wasn’t unreasonable to include the Picture, the Lead Actor with Mr. Smith, and supporting players like Norton and Mirren in the realm of possibility for nominations. Yet there was also a general feeling from the trailers that perhaps it was trying a bit too hard. Reviews out today seem to confirm that notion. Bottom line? Collateral Beauty won’t get any Oscar nods.
Interestingly, a number of critical write-ups have called it the Hollywood version of Manchester by the Sea, which also deals with the heavy issue of losing a child. Those reviews haven’t exactly meant it as a compliment. While Manchester is poised for many nominations (including Picture), Beauty‘s best hope now is to connect with audiences. At least its costar Naomie Harris looks certain to be recognized, but it’ll be for Moonlight and not this.
There’s a well known thing in Hollywood referred to as The Black List, a compilation of screenplays that have yet to be produced. Executives in the film industry vote on which ones that they think are the best. Since the inception of the list in 2005, some that have made it on there eventually became awards worthy material. This includes eventual Best Picture winners SlumdogMillionaire, TheKing’sSpeech, Argo, and Spotlight. There’s Best Picture nominees like Babel, Juno, AmericanHustle, TheWolfofWallStreet, Whiplash, AmericanSniper and TheRevenant. We have hit movies of all genres including Superbad, TheFighter, TheHangover, Arrival, and JohnWick.
The 2016 Black List was released today and the pic that received the most votes caught my eye. It’s BlondAmbition, a biopic about Madonna that’s set in the 1980s as she was a struggling artist in NYC before becoming the world’s most famous Material Girl. Elyse Hollander is the screenwriter and it’s probably safe to assume this will be on the silver screen in relatively short order.
A well made Madonna biopic (paging Damien Chazelle to direct) could be quite a sight to behold. And, of course, it got me thinking. Who should play her? There’s always the option of casting an unknown. After all, taking on the role of music’s most successful female artist might work better with a performer unfamiliar to our eyes.
Yet one name in particular entered my mind when I read the news today: Chloe Grace Moretz. I think she could pull it off. Even if the film took a couple of years to get off the ground, she’s only 19 right now and would certainly fit the age appropriate timing of that are in its subject’s life. I also thought of Greta Gerwig and she could be interesting, but she’s in her early 30s and Madonna would be in her early to mid 20s here. It could still work though.
What say you? What other actresses could potentially do justice to Madge?
It’s going to be one heck of an interesting weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s latest hits theaters and two serious Oscar hopefuls expand their theater counts. Collateral Beauty debuts while Manchester by the Sea and La La Land gain screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Beauty here:
In all seriousness, Rogue will certainly dominate the box office and I’ve got it slated for the 8th largest domestic opening of all time (just topping this spring’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice).
As for Will Smith’s drama, I’ve got Beauty managing a low double digits gross, which would likely put it in second with Moana and Office Christmas Party dropping to third and fourth.
As for the awards hopefuls, Manchester is expanding its theater count to around 1200 and that might be good enough for 5th or 6th, depending on how far Fantastic Beasts falls in its fifth weekend.
Then there’s La La Land, which currently holds the front runner status for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It had a sizzling debut this weekend on only 5 screens. At press time, it’s uncertain just how many screens it’ll expand to on Friday, but if it’s around 200 or so, it could easily enter the top 10 at as high at #7.
This is how the blog readers feel about my Rogue and Beauty estimates:
Rogue One – 43% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 20% Too High
Collateral Beauty – 39% Too High, 33% Too Low, 28% Just About Right
And here’s a top 7 estimates for the weekend:
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $168.3 million
2. Collateral Beauty
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
3. Moana
Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Office Christmas Party
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)
5. FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem
Precicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. Manchester by the Sea
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
7. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (December 9-11)
Disney’s Moana held the top spot for the third week in a row with $18.5 million, just under my $19.6M estimate for a total of $144M thus far.
Jennifer Aniston/Jason Bateman comedy Office Christmas Party had a decent debut in second with $16.8 million, a bit under my $18.4M prognosis. With a fairly weak Cinemascore grade of B, it’ll still look to play well throughout the holiday season.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was third with $10.4 million, in line with my $10M estimate for a $198M tally.
Arrival was fourth with $5.5 million (I said $5M) for a $81M total and $100M looking within reach.
I incorrectly had Doctor Strange outside of my predicted top 6, but it was fifth with $4.5 million. It’s earned $222M.
Allied was sixth with $3.9 million (I said $4.7M) and it’s made $35M.
Seventh place actually belonged to Nocturnal Animals, which expanded its screen count and earned a middling $3.1M.
Finally, we come to Miss Sloane with Jessica Chastain. I predicted it at sixth with $4.6 million, but it only managed a lackluster $1.8M for 11th place.
Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.
Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.
Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.
Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?
Best Picture (Drama)
My Performance 2/5
Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.
Best Director
My Performance: 3/5
Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.
Best Actor (Drama)
My Performance: 4/5
The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).
Best Actress (Drama)
My Performance: 5/5
Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.
Best Supporting Actor
My Performance: 2/5
Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).
Best Supporting Actress
My Performance: 4/5
Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.
Best Screenplay
My Performance: 3/5
La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.
And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…
The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.
Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.
Let’s get to it!
BESTPICTURE (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
Fences
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Jackie
Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or HacksawRidge to get in.
BESTPICTURE (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
FlorenceFosterJenkins
LaLaLand
TheLobster
RulesDon’tApply
20thCenturyWomen
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
Potential Surprise: CaptainFantastic managing to get recognized.
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences
Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.
BESTACTOR (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, HacksawRidge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.
Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for TheFounder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.
BESTACTOR (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply
Colin Farrell, TheLobster
Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand
Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic
Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson
Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.
BESTACTRESS (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, MissSloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial
Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.
BESTACTRESS (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen
Susan Sarandon, TheMeddler
Emma Stone, LaLaLand
Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Alternate: Sally Field, MyNameisDoris
Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded TheEdge of Seventeen.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea
Issey Ogata, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals
Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or BleedforThis.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea
Alternate: Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky
Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in OtherPeople making the cut.
BESTSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
LaLaLand
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Fences
Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…
CentralIntelligence is not bad, which is more than you can say with some scripts that Kevin Hart has been saddled with over the last few years. From RideAlong (both of them) to TheWeddingRinger to GetHard, the talented Mr. Hart has not seen much material that rises above the strictly mediocre. With a worthy comedic partner in Dwayne Johnson that he has an easy chemistry with, Intelligence may not be very intelligent but it’s got its share of genuinely amusing moments due to their partnership.
The film begins in 1996 when the two stars are high school seniors. Hart is Calvin. He’s the star athlete, resident heralded drama thespian, and runaway Most Likely to Succeed. Johnson is Robbie, whose figure is anything but rock solid. He’s bullied mercilessly by his fellow students and Calvin is the only guy who seems to show him any mercy.
Flash forward two decades as the two are up for the 20 year reunion. Calvin has become a bored accountant in a dead end job, still married somewhat unhappily to his high school sweetheart (Danielle Nicolet). Robbie is now the blandly named Bob Stone, complete with a physique befitting the actor portraying him. He’s now in the CIA and being accused of being a rogue agent trying to sell secrets to the highest bidder.
What follows is a routine buddy flick where Bob/Robbie and Calvin must team up while chased by people who may or may not be bad guys. Amy Ryan gets the change of pace role of the government agency head pursuing them and Aaron Paul pops up as Robbie’s former partner. The threadbare plot of CentralIntelligence is ho-hum at best, but it’s also not what it’s centrally about.
The pic rises and falls on the interaction between the leads and there’s some good stuff to be witnessed. Johnson has already proven his sense of humor (he seems well aware that his character in the Fast & Furious franchise is supposed to be funny). We also have some messages written in about bullying that’s presented slightly better than you might expect in this type of material. There’s some unexpected cameos from other well known comedy actors that are welcome. Director Rawson Marshall Thurber had a hit in 2013 with We’retheMillers, which I enjoyed. That effort had the benefit of hilarious supporting work from Nick Offerman and Kathryn Hahn and a whacky villain role for Ed Helms that accentuated the proceedings beyond its main stars. CentralIntelligence doesn’t have that, but at least the two names above the title help deliver something a bit more worthy of their talents.
Official reviews are at last out today for Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Focused on Jesuit priests being persecuted in Japan in the 17th century, the film has long been a passion project for the heralded director. It’s also long been thought of as a potential major Oscar contender and the buzz certainly confirms that notion. Early reviews are strong enough that Silence looks highly likely to be nominated for both Picture and Director.
In the 21st century, five of the six pictures that Scorsese directed scored Picture nods. The only one that didn’t was 2010’s ShutterIsland and that wasn’t really made for awards attention. Only TheDeparted won the big race along with Scorsese getting his only win ever in Director. Marty’s big competition is in the form of LaLaLand and its director Damien Chazelle, which still appears to be hold front runner status. In the Directing category, the work of Barry Jenkins in Moonlight is also garnering talk.
Screenwriter Jay Cocks looks assured for an Adapted Screenplay nomination. Silence could also score a number of down the line nods in Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, and Production Design.
The acting possibilities for recognition is a bit more complicated. Andrew Garfield is competing against himself in Actor and there’s a very good chance he’d be nominated instead for HacksawRidge (or not at all). Then there’s Supporting Actor with Liam Neeson, Adam Driver, and Issey Ogata in the mix. For months, it was presumed that Neeson would stand the best chance, but the Los Angeles Film Critics named Ogata their runner-up for his supporting work. Driver has gotten some ink for reportedly losing 50 pounds for his role here and the Academy loves stuff like that. Add that up and it’s more uncertainty in an already quite uncertain Supporting Actor derby.
