Box Office Predictions: December 16-18

It’s going to be one heck of an interesting weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s latest hits theaters and two serious Oscar hopefuls expand their theater counts. Collateral Beauty debuts while Manchester by the Sea and La La Land gain screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Beauty here:

Oh and I almost forgot… there’s this spin-off flick called Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opening as well. My take on its opening weekend gross is here:

In all seriousness, Rogue will certainly dominate the box office and I’ve got it slated for the 8th largest domestic opening of all time (just topping this spring’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice).

As for Will Smith’s drama, I’ve got Beauty managing a low double digits gross, which would likely put it in second with Moana and Office Christmas Party dropping to third and fourth.

As for the awards hopefuls, Manchester is expanding its theater count to around 1200 and that might be good enough for 5th or 6th, depending on how far Fantastic Beasts falls in its fifth weekend.

Then there’s La La Land, which currently holds the front runner status for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It had a sizzling debut this weekend on only 5 screens. At press time, it’s uncertain just how many screens it’ll expand to on Friday, but if it’s around 200 or so, it could easily enter the top 10 at as high at #7.

This is how the blog readers feel about my Rogue and Beauty estimates:

Rogue One – 43% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 20% Too High

Collateral Beauty – 39% Too High, 33% Too Low, 28% Just About Right

And here’s a top 7 estimates for the weekend:

1. Rogue One:  A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $168.3 million

2. Collateral Beauty

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

3. Moana

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Office Christmas Party

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Precicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Manchester by the Sea

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

7. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (December 9-11)

Disney’s Moana held the top spot for the third week in a row with $18.5 million, just under my $19.6M estimate for a total of $144M thus far.

Jennifer Aniston/Jason Bateman comedy Office Christmas Party had a decent debut in second with $16.8 million, a bit under my $18.4M prognosis. With a fairly weak Cinemascore grade of B, it’ll still look to play well throughout the holiday season.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was third with $10.4 million, in line with my $10M estimate for a $198M tally.

Arrival was fourth with $5.5 million (I said $5M) for a $81M total and $100M looking within reach.

I incorrectly had Doctor Strange outside of my predicted top 6, but it was fifth with $4.5 million. It’s earned $222M.

Allied was sixth with $3.9 million (I said $4.7M) and it’s made $35M.

Seventh place actually belonged to Nocturnal Animals, which expanded its screen count and earned a middling $3.1M.

Finally, we come to Miss Sloane with Jessica Chastain. I predicted it at sixth with $4.6 million, but it only managed a lackluster $1.8M for 11th place.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…



1 thought on “Box Office Predictions: December 16-18

  1. Yo Todd!

    It feels like we just had a Star Wars film come out last year…Oh how I love Disney and their ability to crank out movies at such a rapid pace.

    I’ve got VERY high expectations for Rogue One, both at the Box Office and the film itself.

    Rogue One – $172M
    Collateral Beauty – $10.7M

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