Nearly a decade ago, Casey Affleck received a Supporting Actor Oscar nomination for TheAssassinationofJesseJamesbytheCowardRobertFord. It was that same year in 2007 that he starred in his brother Ben’s well-received directorial debut GoneBabyGone and appeared for the third time in OceansThirteen as part of that blockbuster trilogy.
Since then, Affleck’s career has been a mix of smaller flicks like Ain’tThemBodiesSaints and OutoftheFurnace with supporting roles in studio fare like TowerHeist and Interstellar. He also made a strange excursion into directing with the Joaquin Phoenix “documentary” I’mStillHere.
His 2016 started rather unremarkably with two pics that came and went – TheFinestHours and Triple9. Yet it was that same time early in the year that word came out from Sundance about ManchesterbytheSea, Kenneth Lonergan’s drama about grief and family. And the word was quite impressive.
At the close of 2016, Manchester stands as a serious awards contender with its star assured a nomination for Best Actor. It is likely it will come down to Affleck and Denzel Washington (Fences) for the win. The former has already picked up a number of critics prizes for his most acclaimed role thus far. He closed out the year by hosting the “Saturday Night Live” Christmas show, including a very amusing bit involving Dunkin Donuts.
The Sundance Film Festival next month will showcase Affleck’s next project – AGhostStory alongside Rooney Mara. Who knows what that will bring, but it certainly kickstarted a supremely lauded year for Affleck this year.
We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…
Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
6. Fences (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Jackie (PR: 12)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Loving (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)
2. 13th (PR: 1)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
5. Gleason (PR: 4)
Other Possibilties
6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 7)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 3)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)
9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Neruda
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Julieta
Ma’Rosa
The Ardennes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
8. Silence (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 3)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
4. Deadpool (PR: 5)
5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Love & Friendship
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 7)
3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
4. Lion (PR: 2)
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Jackie (PR: 3)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana (PR: 4)
9. The BFG (PR: 10)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)
4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)
8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)
9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 5)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Allied
Love & Friendship
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. La La Land (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Allied
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
5. Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 7)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
10. Deadpool (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 6)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
A Monster Calls
That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Lion
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Silence
4 Nominations
Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins
2 Nominations
Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book
1 Nomination
Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!
It’s Christmas weekend at the box office and it’s expected to be a bustling one as five new pictures open in wide release, an Oscar front runner continues to expand, and the second weekend of Rogue One is upon us.
The five newbies are: animated musical Sing, Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci fi romantic thriller Passengers, video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed with Michael Fassbender, James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him?, and Denzel Washington family drama Fences. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:
When it comes to crunching the numbers for the fresh product, one must consider the release dates of each. Sing, Passengers, and Assassin’s Creed all debut this Wednesday. Why Him? will be out Friday. Fences won’t be out until Christmas Day on Sunday, so it’s only two days of grosses to factor in for it.
As I see it, Sing should rather easily be tops among the newbies with Passengers in third. I do wonder if the mostly negative reviews for the J. Law title could hinder it, but I’m still going with a low 40s four-day. I have Creed and Why Him? rounding out the top five with Fences managing a seventh place showing for its 48 hour haul.
As for the second weekend of Rogue One, a 40% dip would put it in the low 90s and that would be good for the 4th largest second weekend of all time. Last year’s record setter The Force Awakens fell just 39% in its sophomore frame (and that was just 3 day gross) for a $149M gross.
As for other holdovers, the holiday weekend typically sees either small drops (and sometimes slight increases) and that’s reflected in my estimates. Additionally, La La Land (currently on 200 screens) is expected to triple its theater count and it should experience a more significant bump.
And with that- I’m doing a top ten predictions for this crazy four-day weekend:
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $92.8 million (representing a 40% drop)
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)
4. Assassin’s Creed
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (Friday to Monday), $28.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. Why Him?
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
6. Moana
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 21%)
7. Fences
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (Sunday-Monday)
8. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
9. Office Christmas Party
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
10. Collateral Beauty
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 25%)
Box Office Results (December 16-18)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story blasted off with an impressive $155 million, good for the 12th largest domestic debut of all time. While it didn’t match my generous $168.3M projection, this is still a fine start for the first spin-off in the heralded franchise and its A Cinemascore grade bodes well for its second weekend and beyond.
Another Disney title – their animated hit Moana – was second with $12.7 million (above my $9M estimate) for a $162M total.
Office Christmas Party was third in its second weekend with $8.5 million, ahead of my $7.1M forecast for a tally of $31M.
The news was not so festive for Will Smith as his critically drubbed Collateral Beauty gave the star his worst wide opening of his career. It made just $7.1 million, well under my $11.4M prediction. I’ve got it experiencing a meager decline over Christmas weekend, but any way you look at it, this is a huge disappointment.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was fourth with $5 million (in line with my $4.8M take) for a $207M haul.
Two Oscar contenders held the six and seven spots. Manchester by the Sea earned $4.2 million in its expansion (I was close with $4.4M) for a total of just over $14M. The aforementioned La La Land continued its sizzling per screen averages with $4.1 million (I said $4.2M) to put its take at just over $5M. As mentioned, it should continue to impress over the holidays and awards season.
And that does it for now, folks! Wishing you a Merry Christmas this weekend and and hopefully a joyous time at the movies…
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
OK – stop rolling your eyes. When Collateral Beauty (out Friday) had its trailers unveiled months ago, it was not out of the question that the film could receive some awards chatter. After all, the cast is made up of multiple Oscar winners and nominees – Will Smith, Edward Norton, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, and Keira Knightley. Maybe its director David Frankel (who’s had some hits with The Devil Wears Prada and Marley & Me) would enter a new phase of his career that included Academy attention.
So it wasn’t unreasonable to include the Picture, the Lead Actor with Mr. Smith, and supporting players like Norton and Mirren in the realm of possibility for nominations. Yet there was also a general feeling from the trailers that perhaps it was trying a bit too hard. Reviews out today seem to confirm that notion. Bottom line? Collateral Beauty won’t get any Oscar nods.
Interestingly, a number of critical write-ups have called it the Hollywood version of Manchester by the Sea, which also deals with the heavy issue of losing a child. Those reviews haven’t exactly meant it as a compliment. While Manchester is poised for many nominations (including Picture), Beauty‘s best hope now is to connect with audiences. At least its costar Naomie Harris looks certain to be recognized, but it’ll be for Moonlight and not this.
It’s going to be one heck of an interesting weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s latest hits theaters and two serious Oscar hopefuls expand their theater counts. Collateral Beauty debuts while Manchester by the Sea and La La Land gain screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Beauty here:
In all seriousness, Rogue will certainly dominate the box office and I’ve got it slated for the 8th largest domestic opening of all time (just topping this spring’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice).
As for Will Smith’s drama, I’ve got Beauty managing a low double digits gross, which would likely put it in second with Moana and Office Christmas Party dropping to third and fourth.
As for the awards hopefuls, Manchester is expanding its theater count to around 1200 and that might be good enough for 5th or 6th, depending on how far Fantastic Beasts falls in its fifth weekend.
Then there’s La La Land, which currently holds the front runner status for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It had a sizzling debut this weekend on only 5 screens. At press time, it’s uncertain just how many screens it’ll expand to on Friday, but if it’s around 200 or so, it could easily enter the top 10 at as high at #7.
This is how the blog readers feel about my Rogue and Beauty estimates:
Rogue One – 43% Just About Right, 37% Too Low, 20% Too High
Collateral Beauty – 39% Too High, 33% Too Low, 28% Just About Right
And here’s a top 7 estimates for the weekend:
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $168.3 million
2. Collateral Beauty
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
3. Moana
Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 52%)
4. Office Christmas Party
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)
5. FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem
Precicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. Manchester by the Sea
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
7. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (December 9-11)
Disney’s Moana held the top spot for the third week in a row with $18.5 million, just under my $19.6M estimate for a total of $144M thus far.
Jennifer Aniston/Jason Bateman comedy Office Christmas Party had a decent debut in second with $16.8 million, a bit under my $18.4M prognosis. With a fairly weak Cinemascore grade of B, it’ll still look to play well throughout the holiday season.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was third with $10.4 million, in line with my $10M estimate for a $198M tally.
Arrival was fourth with $5.5 million (I said $5M) for a $81M total and $100M looking within reach.
I incorrectly had Doctor Strange outside of my predicted top 6, but it was fifth with $4.5 million. It’s earned $222M.
Allied was sixth with $3.9 million (I said $4.7M) and it’s made $35M.
Seventh place actually belonged to Nocturnal Animals, which expanded its screen count and earned a middling $3.1M.
Finally, we come to Miss Sloane with Jessica Chastain. I predicted it at sixth with $4.6 million, but it only managed a lackluster $1.8M for 11th place.
Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.
Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.
Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.
Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?
Best Picture (Drama)
My Performance 2/5
Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.
Best Director
My Performance: 3/5
Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.
Best Actor (Drama)
My Performance: 4/5
The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).
Best Actress (Drama)
My Performance: 5/5
Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
My Performance: 3/5
Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.
Best Supporting Actor
My Performance: 2/5
Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).
Best Supporting Actress
My Performance: 4/5
Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.
Best Screenplay
My Performance: 3/5
La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.
And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…
The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.
Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.
Let’s get to it!
BESTPICTURE (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
Fences
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Jackie
Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or HacksawRidge to get in.
BESTPICTURE (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
FlorenceFosterJenkins
LaLaLand
TheLobster
RulesDon’tApply
20thCenturyWomen
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
Potential Surprise: CaptainFantastic managing to get recognized.
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences
Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.
BESTACTOR (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, HacksawRidge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.
Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for TheFounder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.
BESTACTOR (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply
Colin Farrell, TheLobster
Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand
Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic
Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson
Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.
BESTACTRESS (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, MissSloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial
Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.
BESTACTRESS (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen
Susan Sarandon, TheMeddler
Emma Stone, LaLaLand
Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Alternate: Sally Field, MyNameisDoris
Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded TheEdge of Seventeen.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea
Issey Ogata, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals
Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or BleedforThis.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea
Alternate: Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky
Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in OtherPeople making the cut.
BESTSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
LaLaLand
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Fences
Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…
Happy Friday y’all! Readers of my blog are aware that every Thursday for a few weeks now, I’ve been giving you my projections in the eight biggest races for the Academy Awards. Those categories are Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. You can peruse yesterday’s post here if you didn’t catch it:
What about the other categories, though? Well fear not because today is the first day I’m giving you my take on them as well. I’m leaving out (and will continue to leave out) Documentary Short Subject and the short film races in animated and live-action. Why? I don’t know anything about them and it’d be simple guesswork to predict them.
That said, we’ve got a bunch of other races to cover. As I’ve done with the others, I’ll give my 5 predicted nominees and list five other strong possibilities. Let’s get to it!
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. Finding Dory
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince
7. April and the Extraordinary World
8. My Life as a Zucchini
9. Sausage Party
10. Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th
2. O.J.: Made in America
3. Gleason
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro
Other Possibilities
6. The Eagle Huntress
7. Cameraperson
8. Fire at Sea
9. Miss Sharon Jones
10. The Ivory Game
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann
2. Fire at Sea
3. Land of Mine
4. Elle
5. A Man Called Ove
Other Possibilities
6. The Salesman
7. Ma’Rosa
8. The Ardennes
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
10. Neruda
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. The Jungle Book
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night
7. Lion
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
10. Jackie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Love and Friendship
4. Live by Night
5. Silence
Other Possibilities
6. Allied
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Florence Foster Jenkins
9. Fences
10. Hidden Figures
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Jackie
8. Hell or High Water
9. Live by Night
10. Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (only three nominees)
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Other Possibilities
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. The BFG
6. Hidden Figures
7. Star Trek Beyond
8. Suicide Squad
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Silence
Best Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Jackie
5. Moana
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
8. Hidden Figures
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land
4. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
5. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls
7. “A Letter to the Free” from 13th
8. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
9. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply
10. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Jackie
4. Live by Night
5. Arrival
Other Possibilities
6. Love and Friendship
7. Rules Don’t Apply
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
10. Allied
Best Sound Editing
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. The Jungle Book
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Patriots Day
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. Silence
8. Deepwater Horizon
9. Sully
10. Passengers
Best Sound Mixing
1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Patriots Day
4. Sully
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Arrival
9. Passengers
10. Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. A Monster Calls
5. Passengers
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival
7. The BFG
8. Star Trek Beyond
9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
10. Captain America: Civil War
**And that leaves the following breakdown for all movies in all categories getting the following number of nominations (this will be updated every week):
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Silence
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Arrival, Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
5 Nominations
Jackie
4 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, The Jungle Book, Loving, Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Live by Night, Patriots Day, Sully, 20th Century Women
1 Nomination
13th, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Finding Dory, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hell or High Water, I Am Not Your Negro, Kubo and the Two Strings, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Love & Friendship, A Man Called Ove, A Monster Calls, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, Passengers, Po, The Red Turtle, Toni Erdmann, Zootopia
Next Thursday – I’ll have my predictions updated in all categories! Until then…
Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!
It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.
Let us count them…
1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.
2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.
3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.
There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:
Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.
Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.
Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.
Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.
Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.
4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.
Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Fences (PR: 2)
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 8)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
11. Jackie (PR: 9)
12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)
13. Sully (PR: 15)
14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Live by Night (PR: 14)
18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
20. The Founder (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)
8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Moonlight (PR: 1)
3. La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. The Lobster (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
8. Sully (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 9)
10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Whew! And there you have it…
Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…
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