Box Office Predictions: October 21-23

It’s a particularly crowded weekend at the box office with four new wide releases hitting the multiplexes and another in semi-wide release. We have Tom Cruise’s action sequel Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, horror prequel Ouija: Origin of Evil, and the Zach Galifianakis led comedy (his second this month) Keeping Up with the Joneses. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

To add to the clutter, there’s also the faith-based drama I’m Not Ashamed, which debuts on around 500 screens. I’ve got it pegged at $2 million for its start.

So how will all this shake out? Well, it’s probable that the four newbies will all land in the top 5. I have Reacher rather easily winning the weekend with Ouija as the runner-up. The Accountant (which had a solid debut in the top spot this past weekend) could fall to third with Boo! and Joneses rounding out the top five.

Here’s how the blog readers see my picks for the newcomers:

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back: 50% Too Low, 41% Just About Right, 9% Too High

Ouija: Origin of Evil: 46% Just About Right, 27%, Too High, 27% Too Low

Boo! A Madea Halloween: 33% Too High, 33% Too Low, 33% Just About Right (how about that?!?!)

Keeping Up with the Joneses: 46% Too Low, 39% Just About Right, 15% Too High

Truth be told, this weekend is pretty unpredictable with all the fresh product coming our way. Let’s see what happens, but here’s how I have the top 5:

1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Predicted Gross: $23.9 million

2. Ouija: Origin of Evil

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

3. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Keeping Up with the Joneses

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (October 14-16)

The numbers were quite good for Ben Affleck’s The Accountant as it scored a #1 opening with $24.7 million, easily topping my $17.6M prediction. Even though reviews were quite mixed, audiences liked what they saw it scored an A Cinemascore grade.

The Girl on the Train dipped to second in its sophomore weekend with a 50% drop to $12.2 million (a bit under my $13.4M projection). The Emily Blunt thriller has taken in $46 million thus far.

The stand-up comedy concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now? debuted in third with a decent $11.7 million, not quite matching my $13.5M estimate.

Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children was fourth with $8.9 million (I said $8.2M) to bring its tally to $65 million. Deepwater Horizon rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.8M) and it’s made $49 million.

Last (and least), Max Steel was met with a massive shrug from audience as it opened in 11th place with $2.1 million. I went a bit higher with $3.8M. Look for this one On Demand quite soon.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 14-16

The October box office rolls along as three new titles debut: Ben Affleck’s CIA thriller The Accountant, stand-up concert pic Kevin Hart: What Now?, and Mattel toy adaptation Max Steel. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/the-accountant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/kevin-hart-what-now-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, my estimated high teens for Accountant should be enough of a number to make it #1. For #2, I’m looking at an extremely tight race between Mr. Hart and Ms. Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train’s sophomore frame.

Due to a very low prognosis for Max Steel at $3.8 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon should round out the top five.

When it comes to where the readers are at with my newcomer estimates:

The Accountant – 48% Too Low, 43% Just About Right, 9% Too High

Kevin Hart: What Now? – 45% Just About Right, 33% Too High, 22% Too Low

Max Steel – 46% Too Low, 36% Too High, 18% Just About Right

And with that – my take on that top 5 for the weekend ahead:

1. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

2. Kevin Hart: What Now?

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

3. The Girl on the Train

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Deepwater Horizon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 7-9)

As expected, The Girl on the Train topped the charts, rolling in with $24.5 million. This is a pretty decent debut that did come in below my $28.2M forecast. However, its middling B Cinemascore grade indicates plenty of audience members weren’t wild about it.

Last weekend’s champ Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children dropped to second with $15.1 million, a bit ahead of my $14.3M projection. The 10 day total stands at $51 million.

In its sophomore frame, Deepwater Horizon was third with $11.5 million – in line with my $11.9M estimate for a $38 million total.

The Magnificent Seven was fourth with $9 million (higher than my too clever $7.7M prediction) and has earned $75 million.

Storks rounded out the high five at $8.2 million (I said $9.3M) and it’s earned an underwhelming $49 million.

Lackluster newbies were sixth and seventh. Once considered a strong Oscar contender, the fading The Birth of a Nation disappointed with $7 million. I went higher with $10.5M.

Teen comedy Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life was right under with only $6.8 million (I said $7.8M).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

http://youtu.be/wmKtb-Pvpf4

Kevin Hart: What Now? Box Office Prediction

Kevin Hart has been busy at the box office in 2016. Ride Along 2 debuted in January with an overall gross of $90 million (shy of its predecessor, but not bad). This summer came Central Intelligence, his team-up with The Rock that marked his second highest grosser ever at $127 million (after the first Ride Along, which made $134M). While the comedian has broken through on the silver screen in a major way, he hasn’t forgotten his stand-up roots. That leads to Kevin Hart: What Now?, out next weekend, which presents his latest comedy tour with a show taped in 2015 in Philadelphia.

For comparisons sake, it’s been three years since Mr. Hart released his last stand-up pic theatrically. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain had a $10 million premiere with a $32M eventual domestic haul. Comedy concerts released in multiplexes are a rare breed, but there’s some hope this could outshine Explain. The most obvious reason is that Hart has become a much bigger movie star in the three years that have transpired. On the other hand, moviegoers know even more now that Now will likely be available for their viewing pleasure via streaming quite soon.

Add that up and I believe What Now? will manage to outpace Explain for a debut in the low to mid double digits.

Kevin Hart: What Now? opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million

For my The Accountant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/05/the-accountant-box-office-prediction/

For my Max Steel prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/10/06/max-steel-box-office-prediction/

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